So what is the strategy?

Sonoftheheir

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
West Suffolk
Been thinking a lot of where this is going, basically it can’t go on for much longer imo. The novelty of staying at home will soon be wearing thin I’d have thought? Especially when the weather warms up again.

Regarding a vaccine, if they make one that is safe then only people who haven’t had the virus really need it surely? And then only people who would normally have a flu jab?
 

Scribus

Member
Location
Central Atlantic
Been thinking a lot of where this is going, basically it can’t go on for much longer imo. The novelty of staying at home will soon be wearing thin I’d have thought? Especially when the weather warms up again.

Regarding a vaccine, if they make one that is safe then only people who haven’t had the virus really need it surely? And then only people who would normally have a flu jab?
Quite so. Home imprisonment will only last so long and will erode by degree rather than any one great rebellion.
 
Indeed, Coleman mentions that, shut them out of life, basically go tell them to p!ss off and die was his take on the governments plans. I was not at all happy about the MMR jab, there have been very serious concerns raised over it, but please excuse us the mushy emotive carp by which you are trying to justify compulsory vaccination.
I don't think there were that serious concerns about the MMR jab were there? The science was always pretty reasonable on it
 

Scribus

Member
Location
Central Atlantic
I don't think there were that serious concerns about the MMR jab were there? The science was always pretty reasonable on it
There was a good of concern and vaccination rates dropped considerably in the UK, although the original paper by Dr Wakefield, published in the Lancet has now been withdrawn, which once again confirms that scientists don't always get it right.
 

hoff135

Member
Location
scotland
Becoming increasing confused by the way this whole situation is being presented to the public by the media and the govt. And I suspect the public are by and large not grasping the whole situation either.

People are talking about "peaks" in some countries as if it could be over soon. If 70% of the population have had it and recovered then maybe we can get ready to pop the cork but it looks highly unlikely that we are anywhere near those levels. If only 10% have had it we are miles away from a "peak". The curve is being lowered through lockdown and people are being fooled into thinking its over.

If i go on facebook and read what friends are saying its obvious most people think this whole lockdown is so they avoid it altogether. They are being duped into thinking this whole thing is about containment when its clearly long past that stage.

I have seen numerous posts shared on social media of people sick and their relatives pleading that others obey the rules and "stay safe". I have seen others post to complain that non locals were stopping at local shop when passing through the local village and they were angry that they could be "bringing it here".

Although we can all celebrate any decline in deaths and new cases, it simply does not eliminate the problem long term. The second you remove restrictions it will be away again.

A vaccine seems a long way off

Authorities seem in no hurry to try any possible drugs to combat the virus

That leaves us with herd immunity as the only way out of this. That relies on us all getting it and hopefully we will have antibodies for sufficient time that we will not get it again.
 

Hindsight

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
Becoming increasing confused by the way this whole situation is being presented to the public by the media and the govt. And I suspect the public are by and large not grasping the whole situation either.

People are talking about "peaks" in some countries as if it could be over soon. If 70% of the population have had it and recovered then maybe we can get ready to pop the cork but it looks highly unlikely that we are anywhere near those levels. If only 10% have had it we are miles away from a "peak". The curve is being lowered through lockdown and people are being fooled into thinking its over.

If i go on facebook and read what friends are saying its obvious most people think this whole lockdown is so they avoid it altogether. They are being duped into thinking this whole thing is about containment when its clearly long past that stage.

I have seen numerous posts shared on social media of people sick and their relatives pleading that others obey the rules and "stay safe". I have seen others post to complain that non locals were stopping at local shop when passing through the local village and they were angry that they could be "bringing it here".

Although we can all celebrate any decline in deaths and new cases, it simply does not eliminate the problem long term. The second you remove restrictions it will be away again.

A vaccine seems a long way off

Authorities seem in no hurry to try any possible drugs to combat the virus

That leaves us with herd immunity as the only way out of this. That relies on us all getting it and hopefully we will have antibodies for sufficient time that we will not get it again.
Yep, seems one either aims to self isolate for months or years until an effective vaccine becomes available, of course assuming ones financial circumstances allow. Or accepts that at some stage one will catch CV19 and have to take ones chances. It looks as though ones chances are better if fit, healthy and younger, but by no means guarenteed. And chances a bit better maybe if the health service is not overloaded. So it would seem governments around the world will lift restrictions steadily and folk take there chances. A bit like pouring a sack of seed into a drill - nice and steady or a big gulp so spills over.

I am wondering what to do - are my genetics upto it.

Sweden anyone. Government will have to explain to the public that some friends and family will die early. Simple as that!?

Anyway I am reassured about the world. As I type overhead the USAF F15s are playing wargames - so that is a useful use of US dollars.
 
World economy has been crashed for no good reason..

One of the most recent academic papers from France Sars-CoV2:Fear versus Data states amongst other things that

Under these conditions, there does not seem to be a significant difference between the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries and that of common coronaviruses (χ2 test, P=0.11). Of course, the major flaw in this study is that the percentage of deaths attributable to the virus is not determined, but this is the case for all studies reporting respiratory virus infections, including SARS-CoV-2. Indeed, viral infections are ecosystem infections where the outcome depends on the inoculums and the surrounding microbiota [26]. Thus, certain bacteria seem to be associated with symptomatic manifestations, such as Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae and Staphylococcus aureus, which are known to cause an excess of mortality due to secondary infection. Finally, seasonality, geographic location, heat and humidity are co-factors, as are age, gender and underlying pathologies. Under these conditions, and all other things being equal, SARS-CoV-2 infection cannot be described as being statistically more severe than infection with other coronaviruses in common circulation.

Finally, in OECD countries, SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to be deadlier than other circulating viruses. In addition to coronaviruses, there are 16 endemic viruses in common circulation in developed countries (adenovirus, bocavirus, cytomegalovirus, enterovirus, influenza A H1N1 virus, influenza A H3N2 virus, influenza B virus, metapneumovirus, parainfluenzae virus 1, parainfluenzae virus 2, parainfluenzae virus 3, parainfluenzae virus 4, parechovirus, picornavirus, rhinovirus, syncytial respiratory virus), and 2.6 million deaths from respiratory infections (excluding tuberculosis) per year have been noted in recent years worldwide [27]. There is little chance that the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 could change this statistic significantly. Fear could have a larger impact than the virus itself; a case of suicide motivated by the fear of SARS-COV-2 has been reported in India


Similar reports from elsewhere around the world that the data does not support the contention than this is statistically any more dangerous than normal flu outbreaks etc. All it does show is that the NHS has been run down to the point it can't cope with an event that is perfectly 'normal' and that the better strategy would have been to just isolate the vulnerable as detailed here

Plenty of dodgy statistics being used as well

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/05/covid19-death-figures-a-substantial-over-estimate/
 

jendan

Member
World economy has been crashed for no good reason..

One of the most recent academic papers from France Sars-CoV2:Fear versus Data states amongst other things that

Under these conditions, there does not seem to be a significant difference between the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries and that of common coronaviruses (χ2 test, P=0.11). Of course, the major flaw in this study is that the percentage of deaths attributable to the virus is not determined, but this is the case for all studies reporting respiratory virus infections, including SARS-CoV-2. Indeed, viral infections are ecosystem infections where the outcome depends on the inoculums and the surrounding microbiota [26]. Thus, certain bacteria seem to be associated with symptomatic manifestations, such as Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae and Staphylococcus aureus, which are known to cause an excess of mortality due to secondary infection. Finally, seasonality, geographic location, heat and humidity are co-factors, as are age, gender and underlying pathologies. Under these conditions, and all other things being equal, SARS-CoV-2 infection cannot be described as being statistically more severe than infection with other coronaviruses in common circulation.

Finally, in OECD countries, SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to be deadlier than other circulating viruses. In addition to coronaviruses, there are 16 endemic viruses in common circulation in developed countries (adenovirus, bocavirus, cytomegalovirus, enterovirus, influenza A H1N1 virus, influenza A H3N2 virus, influenza B virus, metapneumovirus, parainfluenzae virus 1, parainfluenzae virus 2, parainfluenzae virus 3, parainfluenzae virus 4, parechovirus, picornavirus, rhinovirus, syncytial respiratory virus), and 2.6 million deaths from respiratory infections (excluding tuberculosis) per year have been noted in recent years worldwide [27]. There is little chance that the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 could change this statistic significantly. Fear could have a larger impact than the virus itself; a case of suicide motivated by the fear of SARS-COV-2 has been reported in India


Similar reports from elsewhere around the world that the data does not support the contention than this is statistically any more dangerous than normal flu outbreaks etc. All it does show is that the NHS has been run down to the point it can't cope with an event that is perfectly 'normal' and that the better strategy would have been to just isolate the vulnerable as detailed here

Plenty of dodgy statistics being used as well

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/05/covid19-death-figures-a-substantial-over-estimate/
Put your tin hat on. I think Mervyn King said similar,about the world economy.
 

capfits

Member
It has been suggested that Scotland could eliminate covid 19 by the end of summer.
I wish this was true, but fear with the current Westminster policy of "whack a mole" in the outbreaks of Leicester this is a forlorn hope. If they threaten s lockdown it will be like Italy pre lockdown where a number of the populace simply bugger off elsewhere, when threatened with lockdown.
 
It has been suggested that Scotland could eliminate covid 19 by the end of summer.
I wish this was true, but fear with the current Westminster policy of "whack a mole" in the outbreaks of Leicester this is a forlorn hope. If they threaten s lockdown it will be like Italy pre lockdown where a number of the populace simply bugger off elsewhere, when threatened with lockdown.
virus nearly beaten here, but it wont really matter, as soon as the restrictions are lifted the selfish will be off on their foreign holidays, stag weekends etc and dragging the virus back in through the airports anyway. no cure for stupidity
 

Tim s

Member
Location
Scotland
It has been suggested that Scotland could eliminate covid 19 by the end of summer.
I wish this was true, but fear with the current Westminster policy of "whack a mole" in the outbreaks of Leicester this is a forlorn hope. If they threaten s lockdown it will be like Italy pre lockdown where a number of the populace simply bugger off elsewhere, when threatened with lockdown.
Rather a naive claim I thought
 
It has been suggested that Scotland could eliminate covid 19 by the end of summer.
Not quite clear where this will leave covid free counties, if the majority still have it.
Will it leave the Covid Free countries isolated ,while the rest of us , UK, USA, South America etc learn to live with it?
Or is it possible to eliminate Covid world wide ?
 

Tim s

Member
Location
Scotland
Not quite clear where this will leave covid free counties, if the majority still have it.
Will it leave the Covid Free countries isolated ,while the rest of us , UK, USA, South America etc learn to live with it?
Or is it possible to eliminate Covid world wide ?
WE MUST KEEP THEM OUT but let others in through the back door. Same sh!t different day
 
World economy has been crashed for no good reason..

One of the most recent academic papers from France Sars-CoV2:Fear versus Data states amongst other things that

Under these conditions, there does not seem to be a significant difference between the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries and that of common coronaviruses (χ2 test, P=0.11). Of course, the major flaw in this study is that the percentage of deaths attributable to the virus is not determined, but this is the case for all studies reporting respiratory virus infections, including SARS-CoV-2. Indeed, viral infections are ecosystem infections where the outcome depends on the inoculums and the surrounding microbiota [26]. Thus, certain bacteria seem to be associated with symptomatic manifestations, such as Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae and Staphylococcus aureus, which are known to cause an excess of mortality due to secondary infection. Finally, seasonality, geographic location, heat and humidity are co-factors, as are age, gender and underlying pathologies. Under these conditions, and all other things being equal, SARS-CoV-2 infection cannot be described as being statistically more severe than infection with other coronaviruses in common circulation.

Finally, in OECD countries, SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to be deadlier than other circulating viruses. In addition to coronaviruses, there are 16 endemic viruses in common circulation in developed countries (adenovirus, bocavirus, cytomegalovirus, enterovirus, influenza A H1N1 virus, influenza A H3N2 virus, influenza B virus, metapneumovirus, parainfluenzae virus 1, parainfluenzae virus 2, parainfluenzae virus 3, parainfluenzae virus 4, parechovirus, picornavirus, rhinovirus, syncytial respiratory virus), and 2.6 million deaths from respiratory infections (excluding tuberculosis) per year have been noted in recent years worldwide [27]. There is little chance that the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 could change this statistic significantly. Fear could have a larger impact than the virus itself; a case of suicide motivated by the fear of SARS-COV-2 has been reported in India


Similar reports from elsewhere around the world that the data does not support the contention than this is statistically any more dangerous than normal flu outbreaks etc. All it does show is that the NHS has been run down to the point it can't cope with an event that is perfectly 'normal' and that the better strategy would have been to just isolate the vulnerable as detailed here

Plenty of dodgy statistics being used as well

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/05/covid19-death-figures-a-substantial-over-estimate/
That is a very interesting post. Thank you for taking the time to write it.

I had read one theory that suggested the virus was no more infectious or dangerous than other diseases already at work but ,perhaps understandably, governments took a highly cautious approach because of the relative lack of information available about the virus at the time.
 

Cowgirl

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Ayrshire
That is a very interesting post. Thank you for taking the time to write it.

I had read one theory that suggested the virus was no more infectious or dangerous than other diseases already at work but ,perhaps understandably, governments took a highly cautious approach because of the relative lack of information available about the virus at the time.
The problem is not so much the deaths, sad though they are, but the number of patients, many young and previously healthy, who after contracting COVID are condemned to a long period of, or possibly lifelong, disability and hospital care. This virus has been treated like flu but it is not flu - it causes vasculitis, heart attacks, strokes and lung fibrosis (scarring). These changes can be permanent. The mistakes that have been made have been due to underestimating these effects - I know that I do not want to catch this disease. I have a heart problem and it will almost certainly kill me. My husband is diabetic and my mother is 91. Are we to stay in hiding for the rest of our lives?
Scotland is close to elimination- we must do it if we are to have any hope of a normal life and I believe we can. I believe England can too - it just takes political will, which appears to be lacking in England. People are too defeatist.
I also hate to see the term “herd immunity” used wrongly. It is meant to mean protection of the vulnerable by vaccinating the population. It does not mean letting a deadly virus exist permanently in the population persisting at a low level - that is “endemic disease”.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
179,187
Messages
4,080,493
Members
44,932
Latest member
luatbadinh

Your chance to help design ELMS

  • 3,084
  • 87

Environmental Land Management - Defra Director answers Farming Forum members questions about the new scheme
Top