Stick your finger in the air ….

Bald Rick

Moderator
Livestock Farmer
Location
Anglesey
….. and tell me what you think will happen to U.K. agriculture over the next five years.

IF the government wakes up - and it’s a big IF - I wouldn’t be surprised to see a return to some sort of deficiency payments on a whole raft of primary commodities to allow food to remain relatively cheap at the shops

If they don’t, then I expect the NGO environmental bodies to be setting the rural agenda

Gimme your thoughts
 

vantage

Member
Location
Pembs
….. and tell me what you think will happen to U.K. agriculture over the next five years.

IF the government wakes up - and it’s a big IF - I wouldn’t be surprised to see a return to some sort of deficiency payments on a whole raft of primary commodities to allow food to remain relatively cheap at the shops

If they don’t, then I expect the NGO environmental bodies to be setting the rural agenda

Gimme your thoughts
Well as we’re both in Wales, large scale afforestation is the desire, cannot see WAG U turning. Foot trimmer’ s mate told me today his sucklers were going, the NVZ doesn’t encourage any form of ruminant production.
 

Werzle

Member
Location
Midlands
….. and tell me what you think will happen to U.K. agriculture over the next five years.

IF the government wakes up - and it’s a big IF - I wouldn’t be surprised to see a return to some sort of deficiency payments on a whole raft of primary commodities to allow food to remain relatively cheap at the shops

If they don’t, then I expect the NGO environmental bodies to be setting the rural agenda

Gimme your thoughts
Yep i think we will be given some sort of production subsidy to feed the nation and keep food cheap, already heard one auctioneer calling for suckler cow sub to be restarted. I think its probably needed to help the GP but i dont think its a good thing for farming longterm. Just a bloody shame this war started and buggered what looked like a good spell for farming.
 

jackrussell101

Member
Mixed Farmer
I reckon the government will forge ahead with it's environmental agenda with the thinking that we can just import lovely cheap food in the event of domestic shortages...

Good job the rest of the world is now entering a period of plentiful agricultural production 🙈

Then suddenly when sh1t hits the fan and we can't buy it from abroad, they'll be mass food shortages and we'll get the blame for having cut production whilst taking 'generous' and 'greedy' enviro subsidies.
 

Clive

Staff Member
NFFN Member
Location
Lichfield
last time Russia / eastern Europe were not competing with us uk ag was doing rather well

i predict decent returns for h22 then short term pain h23 followed by a period of solid returns and no need for the subs we have become so dependent upon

h22 could be a good time to take a year off ! so much uncertainty/ volatility - those that have invested in machinery and infrastructure over the last few years will be rewarded, those that haven’t are going to find capital requirements VERY painful !
 

kfpben

Member
Location
Mid Hampshire
The pendulum is swinging back towards food production.

Play to your strengths and do what you’re good at and what suits your farm. Preferably what you enjoy too- we’re not on this Earth for long!
Personally I’ll try and limit my reliance on government schemes now that we’re out of HLS. Rightly or wrongly I’d rather rely on the market rather than the government pot.
Anyone who undertakes long term land use change such as tree planting for a few years of DEFRA payments needs their head tested.
 

The Son

Member
Location
Herefordshire
A return to subsidies is a backward step, and they have kept many farming that shouldn't be.
The Environmental Agenda is there if you want to take up the offers, but to me, on my farm they are not good enough.
I will as always follow the maximum production off my area business plan, I have followed it for the last thirty years, and it has always kept food on the table so I see no reason to deviate.
 

DeeGee

Member
Location
North East Wales
The pendulum is swinging back towards food production.

Play to your strengths and do what you’re good at and what suits your farm. Preferably what you enjoy too- we’re not on this Earth for long!
Personally I’ll try and limit my reliance on government schemes now that we’re out of HLS. Rightly or wrongly I’d rather rely on the market rather than the government pot.
Anyone who undertakes long term land use change such as tree planting for a few years of DEFRA payments needs their head tested.
What a good post! Very wise comments and above all, if at all possible enjoy your work!
 

som farmer

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
somerset
its better to look at what we do know,
prices we get are rising, that tells us, product is 'not plentiful', otherwise we wouldn't get those prices.
Food inflation is here, we know that from the press, tv etc.
We know production will be down, fert costs around the world will see to that.
We know future regulations, on their way, are going to further restrict production.
Energy, and fuel costs will make imported food more expensive.
And we know the guv thinks there's plenty of food, so cut production, concentrate on saving the planet.
Add all them up, and its not overly reassuring, for food supply. Especially with Ukraine and Russia, beating the crap out of each other, that's bad enough, but a serious weather event, in one of the major corn areas, will certainly cause panic.
But nothing will change, until the guv actually realises that food costs are to high for the consumer, when it does, panic stations, and this guv likes chucking money at serious problems.
They have a simple choice, get food prices down, or get kicked out at the next election. Unfortunately the usual global solution to high prices, are subs on production. And one thing that is certain, is they cannot afford subs for the climate, and for production.
Its going to be some 'interesting' times ahead, but to be honest, l don't see many negatives for farming, only positives.
 

DaveGrohl

Member
Location
Cumbria
I can't see the general direction taken by every UK government for the last few decades changing. In fact I think that the general trend of not supporting productive agriculture will speed up in the future seeing as the only thing holding back change has been EU membership. Expect more rules and less help.
Yep. Those dreaming of deficiency payments, quotas, etc are fooling themselves. Ain’t gonna happen. High food prices? Govt will just say nowt to do with us guv, but we do need more trees and more regulation….
 

Muddyroads

Member
Location
Devon
Depends how long the prime ministers husband remains in position.

Personally I don’t see any major change in government direction forthcoming for the near future at least.
White meat is likely to be the first to constrict as they’re the most reliant on expensive inputs. They also have the shortest turnaround and production can be paused. This will mean the poorest will suffer first, regardless of our opinions of peoples diets. As I’ve said elsewhere, I think a shortage of Christmas turkeys will be the first indicators to politicians that all is not well.
Grass fed beef and lamb with low cost of production may well ride a volatile market more easily than intensive systems. I suspect arable units will be the least affected by the coming recession.
 

Bignor Farmer

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
West Sussex
The government is hell bent on their new green agenda, not just in agriculture but across all industries and that isn’t going to change.
The government also quite likes inflation because it erodes the debt and gives them a bit more spending power going forward.

The problem comes when the news headlines are full of pensioners freezing or starving to death in their living rooms because they can’t afford food or energy. That will all be blamed on Putin and used to push their green/energy agenda more while they try and walk a tightrope using some of their increased tax receipts to keep the elderly and unemployable fed and warm.

I don’t there is much new for farmers. Market forces and a few environmental payments for those who want to take them.
 
The war has shown us how delicate the balance is in terms of food supply. Food will become a much bigger political football in the next few years. I think there are going to be food riots in some areas of the world this year.

For the farmer the risks are going to be far higher with rising input costs but there’ll be opportunities to make lots of money. Cash flow will be ever more crucial and disaster harvests/price crashes could really do some damage.
 

onesiedale

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Derbyshire
Sadly I think we will see some sort of subsidies/incentives to intensify production. Whether it be in the form of deficiency payments or capital grants for infrastructure to enable the maximising of production of bigger 'industrial farms' , whilst at the same time the environmental push will continue to take land out of production.
Both the NGO lobbyists and the supply trade lobbyists will be the winners.
Potentially for farmers it could be a lose-lose situation. Unless of course, like @Clive said, you've already made the CapEx.
 

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Man fined £300 for bonfire-related waste offences

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Written by William Kellett from Agriland

court-640x360.jpg
A man has pleaded guilty at Newtownards Magistrates’ Court to waste offences relating to a bonfire next to the electrical sub-station on the Circular Road in Newtownards, Co. Down.

Gareth Gill (51) of Abbot’s Walk, Newtownards pleaded guilty to two charges under the Waste and Contaminated Land (Northern Ireland) Order 1997, for which he was fined £150 each and ordered to pay a £15 offender’s levy

On June 25, 2018, PSNI officers went to Gill’s yard, where they found a large amount of waste consisting of scrap wood, pallets, carpet and underlay.

Discussion with Northern Ireland Environment Agency (NIEA) officers confirmed the site...
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