100, 000 cases a day was forecast for july, and huge numbers were forecast at the beginning, neither happened so why would we believe this latest forecast?
I’m not sure about that. We had reported 46k/ day (iirc) in July, and we know that the actual case rate will be higher than the reported one (some asymptomatic, some won’t report). I would not be surprised if the ratio of reported: total exceeds 1:2 - would you? Plenty on here claim that 20m have “had covid”.
Yes of course real numbers are higher than reported cases but the prediction was for reported cases and if the real number was 100 thousand the death rate is even smaller than we are led to believe so far. We are nearly two years into covid and we are just as far away from being free of it, we need to accept we never will be and move on, it is obvious that new variants will emerge constantly so treatment is the way forward, these are coming now and like most diseases our own bodies will learn to deal with it unless we have other problems which is where treatments come in.
Was it? I would be interested to see that one. All I have seen was one predicting total cases. Whichever though, being accurate to the same order of magnitude is actually pretty good for models of that sort, so I wouldn’t be too critical. Especially without understanding of he caveats in the reports/ assumed lack of militating factors etc.
The trouble with models is you only need to be a bit out on one factor and they fall to pieces, look at the weather forecasts, they have unlike covid predictions decades of historical info and yet they cant predict more than a few days, one of the models I saw said 30 to 40 million by this time next year yet still a surge next winter which to me suggests that immunity doesnt last very long, we have to live with it
