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Cereals
Oilseeds
Chart of the Day #2: Canada canola production
Futures & Options prices
Cereals
- With a dearth of fresh news and in the aftermath of Tuesday's bearish WASDE report, grain markets were under the influence of macro factors today.
- The sharp rebound in the sterling which traded above the $1.34 mark for the first time in over a year pushed LIFFE wheat prices down snapping a 2-day winning streak.
- Despite further disappointing EU grain exports this week [See chart of the day #1], Euronext wheat settled to its highest in 4 weeks amid a weakening euro although it was unable to break above its technical chart resistance level of 163.25€/T on the Dec-17 contract.
- French consultancy Strategie Grains raised its 2017 EU soft wheat production estimate by 1.5MMT to 142.5MMT [vs 136MMT LY] whilst it cut its 2017 EU soft wheat export forecast to 23.1MMT, down -1.3MMT from its previous estimate. The lower availabilities in Germany after the summer rain and fierce competition from the Black Sea region were the main reasons behind the reduction in exports from the EU.
- The US Climate Prediction Center indicated in its monthly report that the chances of La Niña were raised to 55 to 60% during this autumn and winter. The trade will keep a close eye on 'the little girl' as Argentine and Southern Brazilian crops which are just about to get planted could be threatened by very dry conditions.
Oilseeds
- Oilseeds benefited from crude oil trading above the $50/bbl mark for the first time in more than a month as well as firm soybean demand from China although gains in the UK were limited to the sharp rally in the sterling.
- CBOT soybeans continued higher for a 2nd consecutive session and they are now back trading above pre-WASDE levels after US private exporters reported the new flash export sales of 198KT of soybeans for delivery to...China during the 2017/18 marketing year.
- The 'La niña' news [See Cereals] and delays in South American soy plantings were also lending support to the soy complex.
- According to the chairman of LMC International, palm oil prices could plummet more than 16% compared to current prices by the end the year due to a recovery in production and reduced demand in the winter months.
- 50% of the canola in the province of Saskatchewan - which accounts for nearly half of the Canadian national crop [See chart of the day #2] - had been harvested by Sept 11th compared to 25% last year and 38% on a 5-yr average [Source: Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture].
Chart of the Day #2: Canada canola production
Futures & Options prices