Supply vs demand

[Farmer Keith]

How far do we all think supply is currently ahead of demand as things stand today? Prices appear to be in free fall and one would assume production is increasing daily and will do for the next 6-8 weeks....

Is there even capacity in the cull system to handle a rush of cows coming through?

 

[buffalo_soldier]

It's more the sudden shift in market dynamics at the moment rather than over supply I think.

Some processors do seem to be making it the farmers problem quite rapidly though.

 

[Milkcow365]

1.4million litres I think was quoted

 

[frederick]

Weve got to think bigger than the uk. What's middle east demand. What will happen in Africa.

Is Chinese demand going to fully recover.

Once the crisis is over how much money are people going to have.

My money is currently on today's supply being 5-10% more than future demand.

O f this is the case the only way of dealing with it will be a drastic slowing on production.

 

[upnortheast]

Supply & demand is best illistrated by a seesaw.
It only take a small difference to tip the market from + to -

 

[Farmer Keith]

It's more the sudden shift in market dynamics at the moment rather than over supply I think.

Some processors do seem to be making it the farmers problem quite rapidly though.

Let’s hope you’re right and it’s just a result of a very sudden shift in the markets, if some of these processors are making a quick buck off the back of it then that’s absolutely disgraceful.

 

[Farmer Keith]

Weve got to think bigger than the uk. What's middle east demand. What will happen in Africa.

Is Chinese demand going to fully recover.

Once the crisis is over how much money are people going to have.

My money is currently on today's supply being 5-10% more than future demand.

O f this is the case the only way of dealing with it will be a drastic slowing on production.

Or some bright spark heaps all the surplus in intervention like a few years back, not sure there’s the money in the wider economy for that this time though.

 

[Chris F]

Weve got to think bigger than the uk. What's middle east demand. What will happen in Africa.

Is Chinese demand going to fully recover.

Once the crisis is over how much money are people going to have.

My money is currently on today's supply being 5-10% more than future demand.

O f this is the case the only way of dealing with it will be a drastic slowing on production.

Just had an email on this exact thing.

 

[Headless chicken]

Let’s hope you’re right and it’s just a result of a very sudden shift in the markets, if some of these processors are making a quick buck off the back of it then that’s absolutely disgraceful.

i spoke with someone I know in retail and he assures me the price the milk is in store is what it costs them.

 

[upnortheast]

i spoke with someone I know in retail and he assures me the price the milk is in store is what it costs them.

Are you saying the retailer does not make a margin on milk

 

[Still Farming]

Article yesterday farmers dumping milk in lagoons when other farm milk direct sales, can't get enough and turning General Public customers away???

 

[Sid]

Article yesterday farmers dumping milk in lagoons when other farm milk direct sales, can't get enough and turning General Public customers away???

Infrastructure
Farm milk direct sales can only process so much.
Processors are the same.

The system is not designed for all the milk to go direct to retail

 

[Headless chicken]

Are you saying the retailer does not make a margin on milk

for that particular retailer this is correct. It’s being sold for £1.10 for 4 pints I’m also told

 

[Still Farming]

Infrastructure
Farm milk direct sales can only process so much.
Processors are the same.

The system is not designed for all the milk to go direct to retail

Same people ,eating food just different ways to get it?
This is opportunity farmers NEED to seize now!

 

[Scoobyscotlad]

for that particular retailer this is correct. It’s being sold for £1.10 for 4 pints I’m also told

Sorry but utter nonsense

 

[Headless chicken]

Sorry but utter nonsense

I can only relay what’s been said to me. I suspect that their no margin would include All the costs associated to getting it to the till but not any margin over this.

 

[deleted user 837354]

If you believe the retailers make no money or even a loss on milk you will believe anything.

 

[betweenthelines]

I can only relay what’s been said to me. I suspect that their no margin would include All the costs associated to getting it to the till but not any margin over this.

You as a farmer could say you don't make any money out of milk

Because you've bought a new tractor, put in a new parlour and pay your OH £500/week, and put your cull and calf sales down as beef enterprise income.

 

[Lowland1]

What is happening at present is short term not long term. If people cannot get into the shop's they can't buy. We have seen with Veg three weeks ago phenomenal demand followed the next week by demand falling of a cliff once people had filled their fridges.People had gone from a weekly shop to a daily shop which has changed to a type of hoarding when they thought they were going inside for a month. Hopefully it will level out but it may take time. Supermarkets have increased till receipts by 25% in the short term and will sell more in the future until the country opens up and people can eat out again.

 

[Homesy]

Wife tried to do an online shop for her parents this morning from Morrisons. No milk. No cream. In fact she hasn't been able to get cream of any sort anywhere for over 3 weeks. It is not demand it is a supply issue.