Survey reveals lowest cereals and oilseed rape area in more than 20 years

[Chris F]

Just received this from AHDB....

Line to survey: https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds/planting-variety-survey-results

AHDB’s latest Planting and Variety Survey, conducted from 15 April to 14 June 2024, shows a dramatic decline in cereals and oilseed rape (OSR) planted in Great Britain (GB) this year – down by five per cent in 2024 to the lowest level for over two decades. A modest rise in the barley (six per cent) and oats (nine per cent) areas is more than offset by the decline in wheat and OSR areas (nine per cent and 21 per cent respectively).

According to the Met Office, rainfall over the UK from September 2023 to May 2024 was the greatest on record since 1836, at 1,157 mm. It was 25 per cent above the five-year average 2018/19 – 2022/23.

AHDB Analyst Matt Darragh said:

“This substantial rainfall across the UK considerably limited the opportunity farmers had to undertake winter and spring planting . What’s more, it has meant unfavourable growing conditions for the crops that were planted, with sunshine hours the lowest since 1995 - 96.

“The falls in winter cropping and rises in spring cropping are less severe than AHDB’s Early Bird Survey (EBS) indicated back in early March. However, this likely reflects the wetter than usual conditions continuing through the spring. Some winter crops, which were in poor condition and targeted to be replaced with spring options, may have been kept because the weather offered limited windows to sow spring crops.

“Overall, the reduced area and poorer crop conditions, especially for winter crops, points to lower cereals and OSR production in 2024.”

While some regions in GB were more impacted than others, most saw declines in cropping. However, in Northern Ireland, the total wheat and barley area is estimated to be up two per cent on the year and six per cent over the five-year average at 30.5 Kha.

Key findings of the Planting & Variety Survey 2024:

• For UK, the total wheat area is estimated to be 1,560 Kha, nine per cent down on the year. This is the second smallest planted area since 1981, behind 2020.
• For UK, the total barley area is up by six per cent, at 1,207 Kha. However, this is only one per cent over the five-year average. The spring barley area rose considerably (18 per cent) to an estimated 804 Kha, the third largest area for at least 20 years. Meanwhile, winter barley fell by 12 per cent to 402 Kha in 2024; two per cent below the five-year average.
• In GB, the oats area is estimated at 180 Kha, a nine per cent increase from last year. While this is historically high, the area is two per cent below the five-year average.
• For GB, the OSR area is estimated to decline by 21 per cent to 307 Kha. This would be the second lowest area since at least the year 2000 and 59 per cent below the peak area in 2012 for the same period.
• For GB, total cereals area falls by three per cent to 2,916 Kha, the lowest area since 2007.

For GB, total cereals and OSR area falls by five per cent to 3,223 Kha, the lowest area since at least the turn of the century, notably pressured by a historically low OSR area.

 

[yellow belly]

I am surprised the wheat area is as high as 1.56 million ha

m conclusion is that less area was scrapped ant that the average yield will be lower than it would if the area was 1.25 million ha

one thing I see is from a car crops look a lot better than from a tractor
from a tractor you see all the blank headlands and bare patches
in many fields the headland ends can make up 10% of the area

my take is that 1.56 million ha will be between 9 million tonnes and 11.5 million tonnes
nearer 10 million than 11.5 million

we need 14 million if imports are as 2023 24 there is likely to be 1.3 extra million in stocks
so we will need extra 1 million tonnes
some will come from extra barley unless the barley quality for malting is good and we can export premium barley for malting

looking into the data and the area of soft wheat is very low so those that need soft wheat will have to pay a significant premium unless they are prepared to take hard wheat

 

[bobk]

Can't see how they arrive at these numbers , wettest autumn in living memory , sfi , shite spring

 

[yellow belly]

Can't see how they arrive at these numbers , wettest autumn in living memory , sfi , shite spring

They got 1100 replies to the survey but are they representative

with the number of farmers in the country they should have a much bigger sample and a more accurate number
we need believable statistics to either flag up a shortage or a surplus before the speculative traders have taken the profit

we all see bare land and sfi crops is this is fallow in the survey

do they weight it to county /region
do they survey the same farms each year ect ect

in previous years defra/ maff have adjusted crop areas right up to December after harvest
adding or knocking 10% on the price in one day

 

[carbonfibre farmer]

I am surprised the wheat area is as high as 1.56 million ha

m conclusion is that less area was scrapped ant that the average yield will be lower than it would if the area was 1.25 million ha

one thing I see is from a car crops look a lot better than from a tractor
from a tractor you see all the blank headlands and bare patches
in many fields the headland ends can make up 10% of the area

my take is that 1.56 million ha will be between 9 million tonnes and 11.5 million tonnes
nearer 10 million than 11.5 million

we need 14 million if imports are as 2023 24 there is likely to be 1.3 extra million in stocks
so we will need extra 1 million tonnes
some will come from extra barley unless the barley quality for malting is good and we can export premium barley for malting

looking into the data and the area of soft wheat is very low so those that need soft wheat will have to pay a significant premium unless they are prepared to take hard wheat

I know this quote is from the combinable crops price tracker thread, but thoughts on the below?

From now to harvest in 2012 1 tonne an acre was lost due to wet desease and low sunlight
t area planted was high due to the dry 2011 autumn and winter rained started on April 5 the day Anglian water declared a hose pipe ban no quality wheat and low bushel was the norm

the next 4 weeks are critical for wheat in the uk and also many northern hemisphere crops

there is not one region of the world that can be described as above average in likely yield

 

[bobk]

They got 1100 replies to the survey but are they representative

with the number of farmers in the country they should have a much bigger sample and a more accurate number
we need believable statistics to either flag up a shortage or a surplus before the speculative traders have taken the profit

we all see bare land and sfi crops is this is fallow in the survey

do they weight it to county /region
do they survey the same farms each year ect ect

in previous years defra/ maff have adjusted crop areas right up to December after harvest
adding or knocking 10% on the price in one day

Isn't it typical of AHDB , such a delicate piece of info is determined by a sloppy defra survey
Is it any wonder farmers are in despair with the so called leaders and experts
I think 9 million tons is about it

 

[Farma Parma]

Yet look at the relativly poor price cereals are currently at.
but inputs increase year on year
We could do with some Deflation !!! esp on shinny metal stuff.

 

[warksfarmer]

More verbal diahorrea from a supposedly independent levy board that should work for the farm levy payers, but instead colludes behind the scenes to shaft their levy payers.

 

[yellow belly]

More verbal diahorrea from a supposedly independent levy board that should work for the farm levy payers, but instead colludes behind the scenes to shaft their levy payers.

The govenment had a statatury survey system in the past that is still on the statute book
the trouble is many farmers ignore it or give inaccurate information based on the area of land that has not been updated for decades
yet they have had accurate field by field data when spa was the Rpa’s system
this is now inaccurate due to single field use codes for part fields

the defra civil servents who administer these systems are not fit for purpose
just as they are in most departments

 

[Hindsight]

They got 1100 replies to the survey but are they representative

with the number of farmers in the country they should have a much bigger sample and a more accurate number
we need believable statistics to either flag up a shortage or a surplus before the speculative traders have taken the profit

we all see bare land and sfi crops is this is fallow in the survey

do they weight it to county /region
do they survey the same farms each year ect ect

in previous years defra/ maff have adjusted crop areas right up to December after harvest
adding or knocking 10% on the price in one day

Did you reply to the survey YB?

 

[deleted user 837354]

Judging from the driving about I have done over the last 6-8 months I don't think it is going to be a vintage year for anything when it comes to yields.

 

[spin cycle]

not only cereals acreage dwindling......breeding ewe flock was lowest in 12 years last census and dropping 1000 ewes/day

 

[DrWazzock]

Everything’s dwindling on the food production front because it’s hardly worth the bother.
More and more extra costs and work added often by our own industry bodies for a selling price that gets worse every year relative to the rest of the economy. What does RT etc expect to happen by increasing costs, allowing in cheap imports that don’t have those costs while selling price globally is stagnant or falling.
We need a better plan than this or our industry will be gone within a decade.

 

[MrNoo]

Everything’s dwindling on the food production front because it’s hardly worth the bother.
More and more extra costs and work added often by our own industry bodies for a selling price that gets worse every year relative to the rest of the economy. What does RT etc expect to happen by increasing costs, allowing in cheap imports that don’t have those costs while selling price globally is stagnant or falling.
We need a better plan than this or our industry will be gone within a decade.

Would give it less than that.

 

[Banana Bar]

Just received this from AHDB....

Line to survey: https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds/planting-variety-survey-results

AHDB’s latest Planting and Variety Survey, conducted from 15 April to 14 June 2024, shows a dramatic decline in cereals and oilseed rape (OSR) planted in Great Britain (GB) this year – down by five per cent in 2024 to the lowest level for over two decades. A modest rise in the barley (six per cent) and oats (nine per cent) areas is more than offset by the decline in wheat and OSR areas (nine per cent and 21 per cent respectively).

According to the Met Office, rainfall over the UK from September 2023 to May 2024 was the greatest on record since 1836, at 1,157 mm. It was 25 per cent above the five-year average 2018/19 – 2022/23.

AHDB Analyst Matt Darragh said:

“This substantial rainfall across the UK considerably limited the opportunity farmers had to undertake winter and spring planting . What’s more, it has meant unfavourable growing conditions for the crops that were planted, with sunshine hours the lowest since 1995 - 96.

“The falls in winter cropping and rises in spring cropping are less severe than AHDB’s Early Bird Survey (EBS) indicated back in early March. However, this likely reflects the wetter than usual conditions continuing through the spring. Some winter crops, which were in poor condition and targeted to be replaced with spring options, may have been kept because the weather offered limited windows to sow spring crops.

“Overall, the reduced area and poorer crop conditions, especially for winter crops, points to lower cereals and OSR production in 2024.”

While some regions in GB were more impacted than others, most saw declines in cropping. However, in Northern Ireland, the total wheat and barley area is estimated to be up two per cent on the year and six per cent over the five-year average at 30.5 Kha.

Key findings of the Planting & Variety Survey 2024:

• For UK, the total wheat area is estimated to be 1,560 Kha, nine per cent down on the year. This is the second smallest planted area since 1981, behind 2020.
• For UK, the total barley area is up by six per cent, at 1,207 Kha. However, this is only one per cent over the five-year average. The spring barley area rose considerably (18 per cent) to an estimated 804 Kha, the third largest area for at least 20 years. Meanwhile, winter barley fell by 12 per cent to 402 Kha in 2024; two per cent below the five-year average.
• In GB, the oats area is estimated at 180 Kha, a nine per cent increase from last year. While this is historically high, the area is two per cent below the five-year average.
• For GB, the OSR area is estimated to decline by 21 per cent to 307 Kha. This would be the second lowest area since at least the year 2000 and 59 per cent below the peak area in 2012 for the same period.
• For GB, total cereals area falls by three per cent to 2,916 Kha, the lowest area since 2007.

For GB, total cereals and OSR area falls by five per cent to 3,223 Kha, the lowest area since at least the turn of the century, notably pressured by a historically low OSR area.

The phrase “ No s##t Sherlock springs to mind. Every farmer in the country has been saying this since November, only the trade have constantly stated that the impact from last autumn would be minimal.

BB

 

[Renaultman]

The phrase “ No s##t Sherlock springs to mind. Every farmer in the country has been saying this since November, only the trade have constantly stated that the impact from last autumn would be minimal.

BB

And this might be because imports are already in place to make up the shortfall, sadly

 

[Farma Parma]

look now many houses that are being built & most on good usefull farmland as ive seen it.
How much extra land has that poxy HS2 taken away?

 

[richard hammond]

And this might be because imports are already in place to make up the shortfall, sadly

Bloody hell, also because of merchant purchased grain as I have said previously!!

 

[Renaultman]

Bloody hell, also because of merchant purchased grain as I have said previously!!

Most of the merchants are now multi nationals not really interested in we farmers, even some cooperatives import.

 

[Barleymow]

Most of the merchants are now multi nationals not really interested in we farmers, even some cooperatives import.

Pity we can't all afford to take a couple of years growing cereals would give the merchants a cold with no seed ,fertiliser and chemical sales they certainly aren't in business to help us