The first domino?

Top Tip.

Member
Location
highland
The London market seems to be under severe pressure,my sil is selling a flat in London at the moment,she has had to drop the price 250k to shift it. Nice flat in a nice area as well. If this is happening in London now how long till it spreads as the London market has been the driver for the whole country.
 

Exfarmer

Member
Location
Bury St Edmunds
18% of all dollars in circulation were printed in 2020, I would assume similar in 2021, so no reason not to believe the podcast I would say - frightening.
Be careful of figures, governments do not have to print money to create it. Vast amounts of money is never actually printed as it never goes into circulation. Money in circulation has to be reprinted as paper currency has quite a limited shelf life, particularly in the age of ATM’s which cannot cope with older notes. So the government takes something like 20% out and pumps a similar amount of new currency in every year.
 

MrNoo

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Cirencester
Doesn't sound ridiculous if you say 18 months.
I wonder what the uk figure is?

Typical that we're just about to put a farmhouse up for sale.
Best time now, a friend is selling up but says he cant get it to market until this time next year, he'd ideally want it on the market now.
I also know of a few who are just about to sell their house and then move into rented and hope the market crashes, timing is everything.!!!
 

toquark

Member
I confess I’m no expert in the Chinese economy or real estate market, but from the bare bones of the Evergrande situation, two things are obvious to me. Firstly, the CCP knew that Evergrande would struggle with the new borrowing limits imposed by the state, secondly this was the desired effect to reduce the likelihood of an even bigger bubble bursting in the future.

From what I can make out, they are trying to nip the problem in the bud as opposed to letting it ramp completely out of control until there’s a 2008 style crash which would be far more damaging.

Part of me hopes this is the beginning of a reality check across the global economy, but I doubt it is much more than a major restructuring at a major firm in a major economy.
 
The London market seems to be under severe pressure,my sil is selling a flat in London at the moment,she has had to drop the price 250k to shift it. Nice flat in a nice area as well. If this is happening in London now how long till it spreads as the London market has been the driver for the whole country.
I would imagine that the London market is struggling due to the marked increase in working from home. That looks likely to remain, so the drop in that market may not be reflected across the country, particularly in more rural but well-connected places.

I can understand folk wanting to live in London as youngsters but can't imagine bringing a family up there
 

caveman

Member
Location
East Sussex.
I would imagine that the London market is struggling due to the marked increase in working from home. That looks likely to remain, so the drop in that market may not be reflected across the country, particularly in more rural but well-connected places.

I can understand folk wanting to live in London as youngsters but can't imagine bringing a family up there
Building thousands of houses down here.
They all selling London, probably losing the mortgage and buy down here with the equity.
 

Bramble

Member
Some of the numbers being quoted for extra borrowing in the last 12-18 months in U.K./US are frightening BUT we have also had to pay for COVID in the same period (furlough etc)

Presumably this will have seriously distorted the figures
 

Bill the Bass

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Cumbria
Some of the numbers being quoted for extra borrowing in the last 12-18 months in U.K./US are frightening BUT we have also had to pay for COVID in the same period (furlough etc)

Presumably this will have seriously distorted the figures
Very true, but I would say it’s irrelevant what the ‘borrowing’ was, it’s borrowing none the less.
 
perfect timing...take the first offer you get, count to a metaphoric ten, then buy it back after the poo strikes the fan.
When will that be , though , when it hits the fan ,
just been on with buying a 3 bed bungalow ,with a bit of land ,
get to last hurdle ,and about to press button ,and daughter of vendors ,rings agents and says wants another £35000 ,as she thinks it was under valued , maybe a blessing in disguise , hope the job crashes ,
 

Top Tip.

Member
Location
highland
I would imagine that the London market is struggling due to the marked increase in working from home. That looks likely to remain, so the drop in that market may not be reflected across the country, particularly in more rural but well-connected places.

I can understand folk wanting to live in London as youngsters but can't imagine bringing a family up there
Quite agree but it was all the money that was swilling around in London property that was under pinning the values across the rest of the country, if there’s a correction down there I would think it would leave less money available . It’s certainly had no effect up here as yet in fact quite the reverse. Just longer term it might.
 

BrianV

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Dartmoor
I confess I’m no expert in the Chinese economy or real estate market, but from the bare bones of the Evergrande situation, two things are obvious to me. Firstly, the CCP knew that Evergrande would struggle with the new borrowing limits imposed by the state, secondly this was the desired effect to reduce the likelihood of an even bigger bubble bursting in the future.

From what I can make out, they are trying to nip the problem in the bud as opposed to letting it ramp completely out of control until there’s a 2008 style crash which would be far more damaging.

Part of me hopes this is the beginning of a reality check across the global economy, but I doubt it is much more than a major restructuring at a major firm in a major economy.
Not too sure but part of me would bet fairly seriously that the Chinese will keep Evergrande limping along only until the majority of potential losses fall onto banks & institutions based outside of China.
Unlike the West the Chinese are nobody's fools!!
 

beardface

Member
Location
East Yorkshire
The London market seems to be under severe pressure,my sil is selling a flat in London at the moment,she has had to drop the price 250k to shift it. Nice flat in a nice area as well. If this is happening in London now how long till it spreads as the London market has been the driver for the whole country.

I'd say it's more a reflection of the London bubble bursting than wider economic problems.
 

Jackov Altraids

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Devon

Mccormick 94

Member
Trade
I might be wrong but I doubt it's a coincidence that the price of almost all inputs and outputs are at all time highs at the same time as many countries have hugely increased the amount of money in the system.

Money largely has to be invested in something rather than floating around. Even if you've money in your account someone at the bank is using it for investment. Therefore if the amount of money has increased from x to y but the physical amount of goods available has remained largely the same the result is inflation as the money has to go somewhere, hence the current "everything bubble". In reality the amount of physical goods available has probably decreased somewhat following all the lock downs, exasperating the problem. Most assets and commodities we deal with are traded globally now so the money has pumped its way into most every corner of the system.

If the new money created spread itself out evenly it wouldn't really be an issue as everyone would be able to afford the higher prices. However as it doesn't you get the situation of increasing wage disparity. It probably ends when those at the bottom can no longer afford the goods produced. A situation I feel we're getting very close to personally.

Let's all just be glad we're one of the industries that people can't do without, even if they often don't realise it! Times may be tough but we're in a better position than travel agents, hospitality or producers of plasma tvs etc!
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

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    Votes: 30 16.1%
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    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • 100% I’ve had enough of farming!

    Votes: 6 3.2%

Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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