The first domino?

[Mccormick 94]

So it's knowing when it's all going to go mad is key. What's best to have money tied in prior to it going bang and more importantly knowing when to leave the party before the herd. So to be one ahead one needs to know how the herd think and to know what it will take for them to jump. Bearing in mind there'll be no logic to it all, it makes the whole exercise a challenge. And no I havent just downed a scotch.

Now that is the million, billion, or probably even trillion dollar question!

 

[tullah]

It doesn't look like I'm going to beat this system. This party could keep going for decades and be a shame to leave too soon.

 

[som farmer]

the Chinese growth gdp is shrinking, to be overtaken by India, and surprisingly, the USA.
It is being challenge by India, for top dog. China fell out with AUS, who didn't roll over, so the massive amounts of coal, they imported from AUS, stopped, which has led to serious shortages of energy, desperately needed to keep the heavy industries going, result slowdown. Chinese economy is driven by growth, and corruption, local guvs, borrow off 'entities' like everglades, which they then lend, to people buying off 'everglades', who use that money, to pay odd it's borrowing, relying on everything continuing as 'normal, better described as a ponsie scheme, banned by chinese law, but with full knowledge of. Basically the moneys run out, and big entities, eg everglades, have to much debt, even for central guv to clear, everglades 27 trillion ? So China is looking for a way out, hence all the belligerence, and threats in the far east, esp Taiwan, taking the pressure away from the economy, a common plan, all over the world, to take the spotlight off 'home issues'. The danger is if, it doesn't work, which it isn't.
Covid shattered the global economies, but was a pretty global thing, so depending who you trade with, while it might hurt some countries, more than others. But it will cause a recession, and a big one, but a 'reset' is probably overdue, however much damage it does, in the short term, and not a lot can be done to stop it. House prices will fall, hopefully land will, for me, food inflation will occur. The 3 'big' powers, USA USSR and China, in their own way, are causing a problem, Biden is weak, China is skint, and putin see's chances, but also needs EU money, from energy exports.
Basically anything could happen, the world is in a very uncertain place, and all down to bankers greed, the world over. For us simple farmers, it is an absolute certainty, everyone will need us, what they can afford to pay, is a different matter, but upward pressure seems to be happening.

 

[caveman]

the Chinese growth gdp is shrinking, to be overtaken by India, and surprisingly, the USA.
It is being challenge by India, for top dog. China fell out with AUS, who didn't roll over, so the massive amounts of coal, they imported from AUS, stopped, which has led to serious shortages of energy, desperately needed to keep the heavy industries going, result slowdown. Chinese economy is driven by growth, and corruption, local guvs, borrow off 'entities' like everglades, which they then lend, to people buying off 'everglades', who use that money, to pay odd it's borrowing, relying on everything continuing as 'normal, better described as a ponsie scheme, banned by chinese law, but with full knowledge of. Basically the moneys run out, and big entities, eg everglades, have to much debt, even for central guv to clear, everglades 27 trillion ? So China is looking for a way out, hence all the belligerence, and threats in the far east, esp Taiwan, taking the pressure away from the economy, a common plan, all over the world, to take the spotlight off 'home issues'. The danger is if, it doesn't work, which it isn't.
Covid shattered the global economies, but was a pretty global thing, so depending who you trade with, while it might hurt some countries, more than others. But it will cause a recession, and a big one, but a 'reset' is probably overdue, however much damage it does, in the short term, and not a lot can be done to stop it. House prices will fall, hopefully land will, for me, food inflation will occur. The 3 'big' powers, USA USSR and China, in their own way, are causing a problem, Biden is weak, China is skint, and putin see's chances, but also needs EU money, from energy exports.
Basically anything could happen, the world is in a very uncertain place, and all down to bankers greed, the world over. For us simple farmers, it is an absolute certainty, everyone will need us, what they can afford to pay, is a different matter, but upward pressure seems to be happening.

With everybody on here waiting for land to fall, (the ones also quoting output prices rising) I can tell you now...it ain't going to fall.

 

[som farmer]

With everybody on here waiting for land to fall, with output prices rising, I can tell you now...it ain't going to fall.

l know, but one can dream a bit ! It would take a major tax policy change, but, as food costs rise, guv tax take drops, chuck in a recession ................ but think you are right.

 

[DaveGrohl]

Simple... but if everyone is in debt then who are we in debt to?

The entire world is in debt to the future. Think of it in those terms and it’s much easier to understand. But instead of being in debt to the next 10 or 20 years we’re raising the bar to 50, 100, 200 years.

And our leaders think this is a good idea. They know that if they’re wrong it doesn’t matter as they’re only in charge for a short time anyway, who cares…….

 

[som farmer]

The entire world is in debt to the future. Think of it in those terms and it’s much easier to understand. But instead of being in debt to the next 10 or 20 years we’re raising the bar to 50, 100, 200 years.

And our leaders think this is a good idea. They know that if they’re wrong it doesn’t matter as they’re only in charge for a short time anyway, who cares…….

did they have a lot of choice ? Here in the UK, our economy is set to bounce back, and guv borrowed at low %, but other economies were not that lucky, we could be Germany, and borrow, to give to the basket case economies, of S EU's, without much hope of ever getting anything back.
We also know, what the UK borrowed/printed, has to be paid back, which means higher taxes.
At least we don't have to borrow, to lend, to S EU states, without a chance of getting it back, and looking forward, we may well be better off, with more trade partners elsewhere in the world.
Spain, as are others, just going into 6th wave of covid, how the hell are they going to recover, financially ? They cannot, if they stay in the eurozone, same applies to Greece, and others.

 

[Swarfmonkey]

It might have borrowed at a low %age, but it does have it's cost. The government spent £56bn last year just paying the interest on debt. That's £835 for every man, woman, and child in the UK.

 

[som farmer]

It might have borrowed at a low %age, but it does have it's cost. The government spent £56bn last year just paying the interest on debt. That's £835 for every man, woman, and child in the UK.

scary stuff, and we are thought to be a 'safe' economy to lend to !!!!!!!!!!!!
But, all the lending, borrowing, could be similar to a ponsie scheme !!
Did read that because we are a stable country and economy, we are one of the largest holders of gold, for other countries, in the world. Looking at some of our politicians, past and present, one has to admit, rather surprising.

 

[DaveGrohl]

scary stuff, and we are thought to be a 'safe' economy to lend to !!!!!!!!!!!!
But, all the lending, borrowing, could be similar to a ponsie scheme !!
Did read that because we are a stable country and economy, we are one of the largest holders of gold, for other countries, in the world. Looking at some of our politicians, past and present, one has to admit, rather surprising.

I think the key is "holder" rather than owner. Gordon strikes again.

 

[DaveGrohl]

did they have a lot of choice ? Here in the UK, our economy is set to bounce back, and guv borrowed at low %, but other economies were not that lucky, we could be Germany, and borrow, to give to the basket case economies, of S EU's, without much hope of ever getting anything back.
We also know, what the UK borrowed/printed, has to be paid back, which means higher taxes.
At least we don't have to borrow, to lend, to S EU states, without a chance of getting it back, and looking forward, we may well be better off, with more trade partners elsewhere in the world.
Spain, as are others, just going into 6th wave of covid, how the hell are they going to recover, financially ? They cannot, if they stay in the eurozone, same applies to Greece, and others.

Define "has to be paid back". I’m sure I read a while ago that we’ve only just paid back our WW1 debt a century later……

 

[som farmer]

wonder what he thinks now, about selling it of cheap, and bought euro's. But he did keep us out of the euro.
WW2, but all guv debt, is in the future/never never land, and it's us poor buggers have to pay it back.

 

[DaveGrohl]

wonder what he thinks now, about selling it of cheap, and bought euro's. But he did keep us out of the euro.

I mean he did come up with the genius idea of telling every speculator in the world that we were going to sell it before we did, so they had plenty of notice and could ensure we sold it at the lowest possible price.

 

[beardface]

May be so but as Top Tip said, it is the money from property sales within London that is being used to buy a lot of rural properties. Post covid lockdowns and working from home a lot have people have sold up and moved to the country. I'd say that market has doubled the value of my house.

London isn't the only city people are looking to move out of. BUT it's one of the main areas investors aren't looking to move back into. If I owned a piece of land close to a motorway I'd definitely be looking to get planning for a distribution hub......

 

[caveman]

I mean he did come up with the genius idea of telling every speculator in the world that we were going to sell it before we did, so they had plenty of notice and could ensure we sold it at the lowest possible price.

I was only thinking this afternoon, after a post above, that we could do with him back in power so as he could give us notice of ditching cash and going crypto.

 

[Swarfmonkey]

I mean he did come up with the genius idea of telling every speculator in the world that we were going to sell it before we did, so they had plenty of notice and could ensure we sold it at the lowest possible price.

It went for $275 an ounce when he flogged it off. Today it's trading for little over $1800 an ounce.

Still, that's small beer compared to other things he was involved in such as Labour going from a budget surplus of £17bn in '00/'01 to a deficit of £40bn before the financial crisis struck...

 

[DaveGrohl]

I was only thinking this afternoon, after a post above, that we could do with him back in power so as he could give us notice of ditching cash and going crypto.

He was the worst Chancellor in my lifetime. He’s caused a huge number of problems that are still persisting for years to come.

 

[serf]

It went for $275 an ounce when he flogged it off. Today it's trading for little over $1800 an ounce

He was such a genius .....he was wasted in politics

 

[serf]

He was the worst Chancellor in my lifetime. He’s caused a huge number of problems that are still persisting for years to come.

He was riding the crest of the wave of the golden legacy ken Clarke left him winged it all the way and he still forked it !

 

[Swarfmonkey]

He was the worst Chancellor in my lifetime. He’s caused a huge number of problems that are still persisting for years to come.

I think it's more decades than years. PFI for example, with the taxpayer on the hook for a total of more than £300billion in payments for projects with a capital value of barely £57bn.