The first domino?

[farmerm]

I think we're on the same page but interpreting it a bit differently.
How do you value bitcoin though? There is an argument that it can be valued in how much electricity is used to mine it. Because it costs so much in electricity for the miners to mine and it gets harder and harder to do all the time. They won't sell it for less than it cost to produce and then the price settles about there and it should keep going up as it gets harder to mine. If that ends up being the case, and logically it could be as long as they don't just stop mining because its too expensive and no one wants it. Then bitcoin could end up as a viable alternative to the dollar as a world currency (I know it sounds mental!) Because it would be tied to energy in the way the dollar is somewhat tied to oil i.e the petrodollar. Especially as the world is going more towards electric power and promore renewables and nuclear instead of coal and gas.
It all depends on the adoption of it. It said in that video that crypto is being adopted at twice the rate of the Internet was it 117% compared to 63% per year for the Internet? I can't remember now. If the network of users keeps growing then it will (should!) Keep going up in value as the demand for it grows.
I know its been taken up very quickly in South America since covid because the people didn't like the way the stimulus was affecting the value of the dollar against their local currency. I have a friend in South Africa who is a big bitcoin fan for the same reason everything he buys is priced in us dollars or the equivalent in rand. It made pricing very volatile bitcoin took out a lot of that volatility for him.
And like I said people in Afghanistan right now are using bitcoin to buy everyday things. The Afghani wasn't being printed in Afghanistan so they can't get any and they don't have access to any cash from the outside anymore. But they all have smartphones...
It's not going to be rich people in the West that dictate how crypto, bitcoin especially, will go in future. It will be the billions of people in emerging markets who are fed up of being dictated by the American president and his affect on the us dollar. The network keeps growing making it more and more valuable.
Bitcoin billionaires and most of the alternative cryptos and their pump and dumps are just noise distracting people from whats really going on.

Are those taking it up in South America actually using Bitcoin like a currency as a means of exchange or is is primarily bought as an asset investment as a means of storing wealth? If Bitcoin because widely adopted as a single global currency it would lead to a complete unbalance in each nations balance of trade resulting in the devastation of many economies and livelihoods and would further accelerate migration.

 

[2wheels]

i have just bought a new laptop. i got an asus as the spec was suitable and it is a taiwanese company.
looking at the label on the back and the bloody thing is made in china. i thought they hated each other's guts but money is more important.

 

[som farmer]

i have just bought a new laptop. i got an asus as the spec was suitable and it is a taiwanese company.
looking at the label on the back and the bloody thing is made in china. i thought they hated each other's guts but money is more important.

and that's the problem, very few places make everything 'on site', now, just buy the components in, from all over, and put them together. Meant to promote world peace, by making everybody reliant on 'other' countries for components. Covid fudged that, stuff simply didn't move, containers in the wrong place, ships unable to get fully loaded etc. Take a long time, if ever, to get all that back in place.

 

[hendrebc]

Are those taking it up in South America actually using Bitcoin like a currency as a means of exchange or is is primarily bought as an asset investment as a means of storing wealth? If Bitcoin because widely adopted as a single global currency it would lead to a complete unbalance in each nations balance of trade resulting in the devastation of many economies and livelihoods and would further accelerate migration.

Both they are using it as a currency to buy things from each other and as savings. That's where the store of value arguments come from they buy the bitcoin with their local currency and then convert it back to either their own currency or dollars later. It's more safe and stable than their own currency and easier to access than cash. They prefer us dollars but they expensive, aren't always that easy to get hold of and counterfeit notes are quite common when you can. Same in many parts of Africa.
I don't see it ever getting that far where it becomes a world currency the bigger governments, especially the USA, wouldn't allow it.
But world reserve currencies have changed before. It was £ Sterling before the dollar up until ww2 and I think it was the Dutch currency before then.

 

[Foxcover]

Both they are using it as a currency to buy things from each other and as savings. That's where the store of value arguments come from they buy the bitcoin with their local currency and then convert it back to either their own currency or dollars later. It's more safe and stable than their own currency and easier to access than cash. They prefer us dollars but they expensive, aren't always that easy to get hold of and counterfeit notes are quite common when you can. Same in many parts of Africa.
I don't see it ever getting that far where it becomes a world currency the bigger governments, especially the USA, wouldn't allow it.
But world reserve currencies have changed before. It was £ Sterling before the dollar up until ww2 and I think it was the Dutch currency before then.

Im not sure they’re using it as much as you think.

 

[hendrebc]

Im not sure they’re using it as much as you think.

Probably not but its use is growing and will likely continue. It's still very early.

 

[Chae1]

One of them sleeps in the same bed as me.

My wife puts sarsons vinegar in the fridge!

 

[Kidds]

My wife puts sarsons vinegar in the fridge!

We have jam in ours.
The whole point of jam was to preserve fruit in the days before fridges and freezers. I tried to explain that bit but waste of time.

 

[Jameshenry]

or painfully unambitious

The reverse is also true of that statement

 

[marco]

Whats the odds of banks skimming off peoples saving in the event of disaster? So called bail in?

Got a letter from the bank afew weeks ago...... They have changed their terms and conditions to allow them to charge negative interest rates. That in my view is theft.

 

[farmerm]

Got a letter from the bank afew weeks ago...... They have changed their terms and conditions to allow them to charge negative interest rates. That in my view is theft.

good luck to them retaining any customers once they try it

 

[hoff135]

Got a letter from the bank afew weeks ago...... They have changed their terms and conditions to allow them to charge negative interest rates. That in my view is theft.

good luck to them retaining any customers once they try it

I'd be straight to the bank for cash but I do believe some banks will hardly give you a lot of cash these day unless you have a reason.

I think there are now mechanisms in place to allow banks to seize peoples deposits and shares to re capitalise themselves. A bit about it in this article but not read it all

Why Bank Bail-Ins Are the New Bailouts

Public outcry over rescuing banks with taxpayer money in 2008 forced a switch in governmental tactics, making bail-ins the new bank bailouts.

www.investopedia.com

 

[farmerm]

I'd be straight to the bank for cash but I do believe some banks will hardly give you a lot of cash these day unless you have a reason.

I think there are now mechanisms in place to allow banks to seize peoples deposits and shares to re capitalise themselves. A bit about it in this article but not read it all

Why Bank Bail-Ins Are the New Bailouts

Public outcry over rescuing banks with taxpayer money in 2008 forced a switch in governmental tactics, making bail-ins the new bank bailouts.

www.investopedia.com

Fortunately we aren’t American...

 

[Barleymow]

No, what this world seems to be all about now is if someone stands on a chair to change a light bulb and should accidentally fall they’re potentially in line for a claim for thousands off their employer.
It’s the sort of thing that they may do routinely at home but the minute it’s done at work and something goes wrong there’s a claim to be had.
Hence a light bulb changing company/department is needed.
Next thing you know running all over changing light bulbs is silly expensive and it’s then cheaper to go in at fixed intervals and change all light bulbs regardless of wether they’re working or not.

It may seem crazy but it’s the world we live in

Good job I wasn't working for anyone when I fell of a table while changing a bulb . Once on my feet again I tipped the lamp over to reach the bulb Doh

 

[ollie989898]

I'm not that big a fan of crypto though I can see why certain investors might want to get into it. An easy way of getting your money out of reach of the government and moving it around the world well out of the grasp of the authorities. Totally untraceable as I understand.

 

[som farmer]

see Italy is in serious money difficulties, and highly likely to go bust. Their debt is such, that they cannot be bailed out, by the EU's stronger economies, like Germany Holland etc, even if those guvs, were willing to do so, their tax payers are not. Spain's tourism and fishing industries are bust, therefore they are somewhat shaky, Greece is bust. To achieve any salvation, they need to drop the euro, if they do, the euro will cease to be a viable currency. Whether you agreed with brexit, or not, we are in a more positive financial economy, and will not be forced to bale out those weaker economies, by borrowing money, which would never be repaid.

Brexit has forced divisions in the union, both political and economic, that were unpredicted, and unfortunate. The very real danger is that the unelected commission, is choosing to ignore them, and is trying for greater union, against the electorates views, 1 recent poll in France, came out 73% against further integration, 1 poll doesn't make a necessity, but indicates a trait, esp when France holds the presidency of the EU.

2023 may look at a very different world, along with everything else that is going on elsewhere, the world 'peace' which has always been 'shaky' but generally held, may not look so good.

 

[ollie989898]

Greece and Spain coming out of the Euro would make sense because they would have control of their own monetary policy once again and become a very attractive place for people and companies to spend money.

The downside of this is that the Euro would probably gain in strength which would hamper Germany and also France where they rely on exports quite heavily. Might help when buying Russian gas though (well, a little bit).

 

[Pasty]

I'm not that big a fan of crypto though I can see why certain investors might want to get into it. An easy way of getting your money out of reach of the government and moving it around the world well out of the grasp of the authorities. Totally untraceable as I understand.

Depends which one you use. Anything on the Etherium blockchain is fairly transparent IF they can put a name to your eth address. Etherscan shows you every transaction publicly in great detail. Bitcoin can be fairly anon. but at the end of the day you have to get fiat $ in and out at some point.

There are projects like Monero which mash up the trails but of course, these are first target for the authorities.

End of the day BTC is slow and the code is rubbish. ETH is currently overloaded and the 'gas' or transaction fees are ridiculous.

Most altcoins are correlated to BTC anyway so will move with them which means generally with the S&P.

BTC also has another problem called Greyscale but that is a whole other subject.