The perfect storm

[warksfarmer]

Canada burning up.
Vast areas of the USA in drought.
Germany water logged.
Mice plague in Oz.
Possible El Niño effect 2021.
None existant U.K. stocks of cereals due to poor harvest 20.
Sterling value consistent.

Could be the year to sit on 2021 harvest? £250/t feed wheat base?

 

[ollie989898]

Bad year in some places, good year in others. Twas ever thus. Feed wheat at £250/tonne, when it eventually happens, will not be a big surprise for me.

 

[jack6480]

fingers crossed yes! £250 needs to be the new norm

 

[bobk]

Heard this morning Hovis have been 100% milling wheat from Germany for 12 months , very poor show imo .

 

[Bob lincs]

Heard this morning Hovis have been 100% milling wheat from Germany for 12 months , very poor show imo .

No red tractor there then .

 

[jondear]

Canada burning up.
Vast areas of the USA in drought.
Germany water logged.
Mice plague in Oz.
Possible El Niño effect 2021.
None existant U.K. stocks of cereals due to poor harvest 20.
Sterling value consistent.

Could be the year to sit on 2021 harvest? £250/t feed wheat base?

Record crops of wheat being cut in Kansas and Nebraska some of Mid west just what I've seen .

 

[bobk]

No red tractor there then .

Black Merc .

 

[yellow belly]

Canada burning up.
Vast areas of the USA in drought.
Germany water logged.
Mice plague in Oz.
Possible El Niño effect 2021.
None existant U.K. stocks of cereals due to poor harvest 20.
Sterling value consistent.

Could be the year to sit on 2021 harvest? £250/t feed wheat base?

one year you will be right or are you buying wheat futures to cash in after christmas

remember history is full of failures who bet on the grain markets going one way and then the weather had other ideas

2020 was the year to sit on grain very easy to predict it with 100% 20 20 hind sight

 

[Werzle]

Record crops of wheat being cut in Kansas and Nebraska some of Mid west just what I've seen .

And france i believe

 

[yellow belly]

Record crops of wheat being cut in Kansas and Nebraska some of Mid west just what I've seen .

lowest area planted since the early 20th century

 

[Sonoftheheir]

Nov up £5 a ton today

 

[bobk]

Nov up £5 a ton today

What to ?

 

[Sonoftheheir]

What to ?

£176

 

[ollie989898]

The thing to do is have enough grain storage that you are able to choose when you want to sell it and net the price you want. Being able to store the lions share of one harvest whilst taking in another would be a way of giving you huge flexibility when it came to marketing as your hand isn't forced into selling.

 

[Clive]

Heard this morning Hovis have been 100% milling wheat from Germany for 12 months , very poor show imo .

wrapped in a union flag wrapper as well !

 

[Clive]

The thing to do is have enough grain storage that you are able to choose when you want to sell it and net the price you want. Being able to store the lions share of one harvest whilst taking in another would be a way of giving you huge flexibility when it came to marketing as your hand isn't forced into selling.

storage is the easy bit, Try cashfloweing a few thousand acres without sales for 18 - 24 months !

we held a lot of h20 into h21 and it was worth over £50/ t doing so ……… cash flow was rather stressed at times however

 

[Clive]

one year you will be right or are you buying wheat futures to cash in after christmas

remember history is full of failures who bet on the grain markets going one way and then the weather had other ideas

2020 was the year to sit on grain very easy to predict it with 100% 20 20 hind sight

H20 - 2021was almos5 100% predicable, anyone involved in growing wheat, osr or barley through that autumn winter and then spring drought could surely see official harvest reports / numbers were miles out, the difficult bit is being in a position to do it re cash flow


I would have filled my boots with futures as well as held physical grain had I been able to afford them or the risk

 

[ollie989898]

storage is the easy bit, Try cashfloweing a few thousand acres without sales for 18 - 24 months !

we held a lot of h19 into h20 and it was worth over £50/ t doing so ……… cash flow was rather stressed at times however

Yes the cashflow is the other obvious problem but I could live with that if it netted me £50/tonne!

 

[Clive]

My view this year is prices will be strong, well over 200 feed wheat I reckon given global events and planting areas etc

Can’t see any reason to hold 2021 beyond harvest 22 though ?

 

[Happy]

Biggest weekly rise for US wheat in 4 years this week.