The trade deals that sooner or later will be done

[The Agrarian]

Looking beyond the sticky withdrawal matter - to the real business of making money flow.

I for one have no faith that the government will act in a way that protects agricultural sectors. From a dairy perspective, we are net importers. A free trade deal in dairy products with lower cost regions will be potentially catastrophic for our industry. Discuss.

 

[rob1]

Looking beyond the sticky withdrawal matter - to the real business of making money flow.

I for one have no faith that the government will act in a way that protects agricultural sectors. From a dairy perspective, we are net importers. A free trade deal in dairy products with lower cost regions will be potentially catastrophic for our industry. Discuss.

Cant see NZ sending stuff here they have developed new markets why would they now give them up to sell it here ? Dont see any EU country being lower cost than us, after all we trade tarif free with them now so that will be no different. We have a great climate for growing grass if we cant produce milk cheaply then I dont know who can, of course all these high cost 365 housing units using conserved forage etc as promoted by the "clever" consultants will soon go back to grass based low cost systems or go bust

 

[Martin Holden]

The main issue with more extensive milk production is more down to the milk processors who collect the milk ex farm. Many have become used to collecting huge quantities from fewer bigger units; how would they be enticed to collect less from more smaller producers? For sure milk from grass is the most efficient way of producing milk and we can grow grass here. In an ideal world mixed farming would be a profitable occcupation and probably benefit the environment but sadly that’s history I’m afraid

 

[rob1]

The main issue with more extensive milk production is more down to the milk processors who collect the milk ex farm. Many have become used to collecting huge quantities from fewer bigger units; how would they be enticed to collect less from more smaller producers? For sure milk from grass is the most efficient way of producing milk and we can grow grass here. In an ideal world mixed farming would be a profitable occcupation and probably benefit the environment but sadly that’s history I’m afraid

Im not sure, look at all the evidence the gov/public/pressure groups want greener farming, what better way than smaller units of say 120/150 cows, while the dairies might like to pick an artic load from every farm, they would sooner have to stop say five times than go out of business if all dairies shut. All it needs is an open mind and keeping away from those with vested interests in making you spend money, perhaps it will be a golden era for keen young new entrants to go share farming, if I lived away from a population centre which gives me access to lots of people to earn money from that is the way I would go at my age, let a keen young lad work his way into a business while I help out and earn a bit from it

 

[fudge]

Looking beyond the sticky withdrawal matter - to the real business of making money flow.

I for one have no faith that the government will act in a way that protects agricultural sectors. From a dairy perspective, we are net importers. A free trade deal in dairy products with lower cost regions will be potentially catastrophic for our industry. Discuss.

Not really much to discuss. It’s the same in all sectors, if your analysis is correct, which I think it is, UK ag will contract. I guess we’ll know pretty soon!

 

[rob1]

Not really much to discuss. It’s the same in all sectors, if your analysis is correct, which I think it is, UK ag will contract. I guess we’ll know pretty soon!

History has shown that since the 30s at least ag has tended to do well when the rest if the economy is poor so if you doom mongers are right then ag will do ok, dairy more so than perhaps sheep sector, but lets face NO farmer has a right to do well, those that want to survive and thrive those that wallow in self pity are lost.

 

[fudge]

History has shown that since the 30s at least ag has tended to do well when the rest if the economy is poor so if you doom mongers are right then ag will do ok, dairy more so than perhaps sheep sector, but lets face NO farmer has a right to do well, those that want to survive and thrive those that wallow in self pity are lost.

Being concerned about the prospect of competition from areas of the globe with lower environmental and welfare standards isn’t wallowing in self pity. Do you think for one moment the government will roll back recent legislation? No thought not.

 

[Ashtree]

Looking beyond the sticky withdrawal matter - to the real business of making money flow.

I for one have no faith that the government will act in a way that protects agricultural sectors. From a dairy perspective, we are net importers. A free trade deal in dairy products with lower cost regions will be potentially catastrophic for our industry. Discuss.

You are right of course. Ag is a very distant cousin to British governments of all hues and cries. The CAP protections which British farmers enjoy, are fought for and won in Brussels against the best efforts of British governments.
In the EU, ag was something to be pushed well down the list of British governments priorities.
Ex EU, it will be a nice tasty bargaining chip, in the rush to make other deals. As indeed will the NHS.

Emancipation has its price ......

 

[Columella]

I introduce myself: I am an italian farmer near Milan. I used to have 150 cows but I gave up two years ago and now I produce rice, corn and soybeans.

I wonder what will happen with Brexit, but I must say - with regret - that I would'nt like to be in your shoes.

from: https://www.clal.it/en/ You can find a lot of useful information.

In Italy they say that the right number of cows is 300, in order to afford two workers.

I can't understand why english farmers are so strongly supporting Brexit, as they have so much to lose, more than others.

 

[Columella]

P.S. Sorry for my english, if I might look unpolite is due to the fact that is not my language.

 

[The Agrarian]

But @rob1 , can you clarify for me then - would you actually welcome zero tariff or regulatory barriers for dairy farming in the UK? In other words, as ashtree said, competition from cheaper, inferior sources - while standards and costs are kept elevated here?

And secondly. Are you a dairy Farmer yourself?

 

[Danllan]

P.S. Sorry for my english, if I might look unpolite is due to the fact that is not my language.

Welcome to the forum, it's a lovely area you are from - I don't like Milan much, but the Pavia - Cremona - Genoa triangle holds happy memories for me, gorgeous mountains and girls...

As for supporting Brexit, some things are more important than money... However, part of my family lost a whole milking herd during the foot and mouth outbreak, more than 250 - which was a pretty big herd for the time and place, although it doesn't seem so huge now. They were heartbroken and frightened of the business never recovering; it didn't, they decided on a complete change, to beef and lamb production, and have been doing well ever since.

Of course, we will take a hit, and that has never been denied by anyone serious, but we'll adapt and go on. I'm expecting my lamb sales to be affected, so I'm altering what I produce and how I produce it - so are most of my neighbours, my friends and my family. We'll have stuff coming from places where production is cheaper, but we'll also have a much more competitive currency than before, and we may well see minimum standards set for anyone wanting access to the UK market - simple equivalence, if you like.

But @rob1 , can you clarify for me then - would you actually welcome zero tariff or regulatory barriers for dairy farming in the UK? In other words, as ashtree said, competition from cheaper, inferior sources - while standards and costs are kept elevated here?

And secondly. Are you a dairy Farmer yourself?

See above; the £'s level and equivalence will soften but will not stop such a blow; adapt and carry on.

 

[Columella]

Thank you, Danllan. I live in Pavia, happy you know it.

I wish you are right, but we can manage with low cost milk coming fro Poland etc. only because we have a lot of cheese (like parmesan) that MUST be done with local milk. You are producing, I think, cheddar which is produced in NZ and USA as well.

 

[The Agrarian]

Do you think we aren't already trying to maximise margins within the context of our farm situations? To me, it really only points to margin compression and destruction of industry capacity.

Equivalency is indeed a barrier. And our past governments do not have a strong track record of supporting policies which protect agriculture.

 

[stewart]

Cant see NZ sending stuff here they have developed new markets why would they now give them up to sell it here ?

They wouldn't give up markets. just increase production to meet the extra demand,which has been happening over the last 20 years.

Dont see any EU country being lower cost than us, after all we trade tarif free with them now so that will be no different. We have a great climate for growing grass if we cant produce milk cheaply then I dont know who can, of course all these high cost 365 housing units using conserved forage etc as promoted by the "clever" consultants will soon go back to grass based low cost systems or go bust

Many areas of Europe can grow grass too, hopefully your clever consultants, once they have persuaded you to go on a grass based low cost system will also tell you how to market.

 

[Ashtree]

They wouldn't give up markets. just increase production to meet the extra demand,which has been happening over the last 20 years.

Many areas of Europe can grow grass too, hopefully your clever consultants, once they have persuaded you to go on a grass based low cost system will also tell you how to market.

Yes. Marketing. Unfortunately it takes a long long time to create, launch and develop iconic brands, which in turn become a virtual conveyor for your product, on to the eye level shelves on supermarkets worldwide. Kerrygold today is a major global brand, which puts money daily in every Irish dairy farmers pocket.
Let’s take a hard Brexit, and with the best will in the world, the British dairy industry with government funding to help, crates a British equivalent and tries to muscle into that space on continental EU shelves. Do you not think, that there would be a negative hangover from Brexit in the minds of Euro consumers and retailers, which would totally negate the wizardry of even the best marketing gurus??
Then on top of that, add a zero tariff policy by Britain on imports, to help control consumer prices (more importantly seats in Westminster at next election).
Perfect storm.

Of course Brexiteers will say, forget EU, we will sell our dairy product globally. You can try, but Kiwi and Yank will put your price on the floor..

 

[Hindsight]

Copied from comments section of The Times

Britain has received demands to roll back its human rights standards in exchange for progress on post-Brexit trade deals, including from some countries that ministers are pushing to secure agreements with.

In an admission that some countries have sought to extract a high price for their continuing to trade with Britain after leaving the EU, Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, said some nations had made the requests as part of talks.

Fox said that he would not drop Europe’s standards on human rights in exchange for trade deals, as he explained why limited progress had been made with some nations that the UK currently trades with under EU arrangements.

“Some countries have said that they didn’t like, for example, the human rights elements that were incorporated by the EU and they would like us to drop those in order to roll the agreements over,” Fox said while answering questions in parliament on his department’s progress towards striking trade deals."

 

[The Agrarian]

Will be grand if the government,and successive governments take that attitude to agriculture. I hope they will keep their heads, and not be in a desperate hurry to do deals, just to save face. Thats always a bad bargaining position, and we could be sacrificed.

 

[Danllan]

Thank you, Danllan. I live in Pavia, happy you know it.

I wish you are right, but we can manage with low cost milk coming fro Poland etc. only because we have a lot of cheese (like parmesan) that MUST be done with local milk. You are producing, I think, cheddar which is produced in NZ and USA as well.

Pavia... very happy memories, but Mrs Danllan may notice this thread so enough said.


My guess is that, post Brexit, we'll be adding value to and marketing our produce far better than now, because we'll have to - and I think that's a good thing. We won't have as much coming in from Europe and the ROI as we have now, but there will still be a huge amount of trade. I also think, and have heard 'rumours' that there will be a very large amount of governmental help for the increased / improved marketing that will be necessary, presumably as central funding or tax breaks of some sort.

(I always buy genuine Italian cheese and, to the shock of many here, eat it as a proper cheese rather than just cooking with it - for any curious Brits... many / most Italians are shocked to see us take some really good Parmigiano-Reggiano and only use it grated over some pasta when rock hard, it's a very good eating cheese too when young, with bread, salad and pickles, and wine. )

As for farming in Italy, I think that if you still had the Lira you'd be better off, and everyone knows this is true; the Euro has benefited those in Berlin and very few others. I have a good friend from Parma, although he now lives here in Wales, who is an EU fan, but he's the first to admit that Italy should not have joined the Euro when or how it did.

@Ashtree there is pretty fair cheese made globally, and some bl**dy awful stuff too, but I've never tasted better 'Cheddar' than from here, it just is better. This isn't jingoism, because I could name things that are - in my experience - better from the ROI or France Italy etc., but the best Cheddar, Stilton etc. comes from the UK. Where I agree with you is that a proper marketing set-up will take time; there may be a few who won't buy British, but I doubt they will be of much relevance because most people aren't that petty.

 

[stewart]

Pavia... very happy memories, but Mrs Danllan may notice this thread so enough said.


My guess is that, post Brexit, we'll be adding value to and marketing our produce far better than now, because we'll have to - and I think that's a good thing. We won't have as much coming in from Europe and the ROI as we have now, but there will still be a huge amount of trade. I also think, and have heard 'rumours' that there will be a very large amount of governmental help for the increased / improved marketing that will be necessary, presumably as central funding or tax breaks of some sort.

(I always buy genuine Italian cheese and, to the shock of many here, eat it as a proper cheese rather than just cooking with it - for any curious Brits... many / most Italians are shocked to see us take some really good Parmigiano-Reggiano and only use it grated over some pasta when rock hard, it's a very good eating cheese too when young, with bread, salad and pickles, and wine. )

As for farming in Italy, I think that if you still had the Lira you'd be better off, and everyone knows this is true; the Euro has benefited those in Berlin and very few others. I have a good friend from Parma, although he now lives here in Wales, who is an EU fan, but he's the first to admit that Italy should not have joined the Euro when or how it did.

@Ashtree there is pretty fair cheese made globally, and some bl**dy awful stuff too, but I've never tasted better 'Cheddar' than from here, it just is better. This isn't jingoism, because I could name things that are - in my experience - better from the ROI or France Italy etc., but the best Cheddar, Stilton etc. comes from the UK. Where I agree with you is that a proper marketing set-up will take time; there may be a few who won't buy British, but I doubt they will be of much relevance because most people aren't that petty.

I try to buy British cheese when I can and when it is available, not through any sense of loyalty to the UK but just because I prefer it to the cheese we produce here. The UK does have some great products, sadly the marketing of them is poor, looking forward to the improvement that you envisage.