The war in Ukraine...

quattro

Member
Location
scotland
A friend of mine said the same to me earlier today; yet it is hard to credit that with the eyes of the World on them they'd do that; but I know what you mean, there is that gut-feeling. On balance I don't think it probable, but the uneasiness of the situation just won't go away, it is possible... :(
There apparently shooting their own injured soldiers instead of treating them
 

BrianV

Member
Livestock Farmer

UK inflation hits 40-year high of 9% as energy bills soar​


Coincidence is such a strange thing, just 8 months ago most Western countries & the USA were seriously concerned that after Covid governments borrowing had gone way out of control & the only thing that could save it would be rampant inflation, but with inflation flat or 1% there was not a chance in hell of that happening was there.
I mean for inflation to rocket you'd need oil, gas & food prices to rocket & there was little chance of that with the worlds economy, I mean it would take at least a war between two major countries for that to happen & that was never going to happen in this day & age was it?

It's funny how these unexpected coincidences just happen at the right time isn't it!
 

Danllan

Member
Location
Sir Gar / Carms
There apparently shooting their own injured soldiers instead of treating them
Possible, but it seems very unlikely to me; any links that can back that up?

However, I saw a retired UK General being interviewed last night - Times Radio I think - and he echoed something I've heard from a pretty senior serving officer; that although we (Western defence / intelligence) think that the conflict there is most likely to drag on... there is also a very real chance that it could end abruptly for one or a combination of several reasons.

Most unlikely is that President Zelensky is killed or for another reason Ukrainian resolve collapses. Less unlikely, but not yet probable, is that Putin is overthrown (or dies, I guess). But what is now considered more likely, but still very far from certain, is that the Russian forces in theatre simply collapse / revolt.

We know that it's now 'officially' estimated that they've lost 30% of their teeth-arms, and we know that our MOD etc. do tend toward the conservative in their figures; so it could well be significantly more, certainly Russia will be doing all it can to restrict knowledge of the real figures.

But this does also tally with things posted on some forces' chat-rooms by former UK servicemen now in Ukraine. A couple of fellows who I know are pukka, and who were a bit sneaky over here so are probably being so over there, reckon that a lot of the Russian BTGs they have observed are 'operating' at very low manning levels, maybe as low as 50% in some cases, definitely less than 75%. Even if it's the lower figure, and only 25% are missing, that has huge practical and tactical implications - and, as was discussed earlier, the BTG is a pretty crap organisation / set-up anyway.

The problem the Russians have is that when you take unsustainable casualty numbers, you're in a spiral you can't get out of, other than by retreat. Food for thought.
 
This is interesting. Wars need paid for.
20220518_110819.jpg
 

quattro

Member
Location
scotland
Possible, but it seems very unlikely to me; any links that can back that up?

However, I saw a retired UK General being interviewed last night - Times Radio I think - and he echoed something I've heard from a pretty senior serving officer; that although we (Western defence / intelligence) think that the conflict there is most likely to drag on... there is also a very real chance that it could end abruptly for one or a combination of several reasons.

Most unlikely is that President Zelensky is killed or for another reason Ukrainian resolve collapses. Less unlikely, but not yet probable, is that Putin is overthrown (or dies, I guess). But what is now considered more likely, but still very far from certain, is that the Russian forces in theatre simply collapse / revolt.

We know that it's now 'officially' estimated that they've lost 30% of their teeth-arms, and we know that our MOD etc. do tend toward the conservative in their figures; so it could well be significantly more, certainly Russia will be doing all it can to restrict knowledge of the real figures.

But this does also tally with things posted on some forces' chat-rooms by former UK servicemen now in Ukraine. A couple of fellows who I know are pukka, and who were a bit sneaky over here so are probably being so over there, reckon that a lot of the Russian BTGs they have observed are 'operating' at very low manning levels, maybe as low as 50% in some cases, definitely less than 75%. Even if it's the lower figure, and only 25% are missing, that has huge practical and tactical implications - and, as was discussed earlier, the BTG is a pretty crap organisation / set-up anyway.

The problem the Russians have is that when you take unsustainable casualty numbers, you're in a spiral you can't get out of, other than by retreat. Food for thought.
It was on you tube it was Russian captured soldiers who was saying some of their colleagues was shot by their commander or general
one was shot because he’d been injured in a leg/legs and couldn’t walk
 

Muck Spreader

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Limousin
The National Gene Bank of Plants of Ukraine survived World War II, and Nazi occupation of #Kharkiv , but not the #Russian invasion. A missile hit the building of The Plant Production Institute, named after V. Ya. Yuriev. More than 160,000 breeds of plants, collected over the decades from all over the world, were preserved there. Among them were centennial breeds, which cannot be reproduced now.

1652869473253.png
 

Danllan

Member
Location
Sir Gar / Carms
It was on you tube it was Russian captured soldiers who was saying some of their colleagues was shot by their commander or general
one was shot because he’d been injured in a leg/legs and couldn’t walk
Of course I'd hesitate to question youtube as a source of factual information... :rolleyes: But, if that is true, it's not only terrible at an individual level, but spells utter ruin for the Russian Army as an organisation. 🤞
 
You are joking, whether it's Iraq Afghanistan & others or are you too young to remember those.
Once upon a time this country had moral authority, from WW2 to the Falklands to Kuwait we stood for doing the correct thing, then Blair came along & we became a prime example since then of a country not to be followed as an example.
We invade other countries with no justifiable reason yet condemn others for doing the same, we now confiscate private individuals assets from some countries but not others with just as bad of leadership, we make agreements only to break them later when they don't suit.
There's as much Arab & Chinese money from dodgy countries as Russian money here & has been for a long time but do we care?
How can we ever be taken seriously by demented leaders like Putin when we are no better ourselves?

Bad examples mate. Falklands was an aggressor invading UK sovereign territory. Afghanistan was agreed and sanctioned by the UN and an international coalition. And GW1 was again an foreign aggressor invading another country who fortunately happened to be allied to the USA, UK and numerous other countries who promptly threw Saddam out. So that leaves Iraq 2003 as your sole example of western imperialism then?
 

BrianV

Member
Livestock Farmer
Bad examples mate. Falklands was an aggressor invading UK sovereign territory. Afghanistan was agreed and sanctioned by the UN and an international coalition. And GW1 was again an foreign aggressor invading another country who fortunately happened to be allied to the USA, UK and numerous other countries who promptly threw Saddam out. So that leaves Iraq 2003 as your sole example of western imperialism then?
Obviously mate reading is not yet your strong point, you will see I said Falklands & Kuwait were with moral authority as for the rest if you want to be Blair's excuse for a mouthpiece then fine, guess it puts you just about on Putin's level! :rolleyes:
 
Cause the first war benefitted the wests plans that why nobody cared, even gave them Satellite data. Nice example.
When Saddam invaded Kuwait the iraqi soldiers took babys out of an incubator, imagine that but hey that was a lie.
Weapons of Mass Destruction were also a lie.


Hey if it fits the narrative and broader geopolitical goals it seems to be ok to lie a little bit.

Oh so Kuwait invaded Iraq. I get it now.
 

BrianV

Member
Livestock Farmer
How times have changed !!!
.........................
Up to 15,000 people killed in invasion, claims thinktank
Suzanne Goldenberg in Washington

@suzyji

Wed 29 Oct 2003 02.40 GMT

As many as 15,000 Iraqis were killed in the first days of America's invasion and occupation of Iraq, a study produced by an independent US thinktank said yesterday. Up to 4,300 of the dead were civilian noncombatants.

The report, by Project on Defence Alternatives, a research institute from Cambridge, Massachussets, offers the most comprehensive account so far of how many Iraqis died.

The toll of Iraq's war dead covered by the report is limited to the early stages of the war, from March 19 when American tanks crossed the Kuwaiti border, to April 20, when US troops had consolidated their hold on Baghdad.
Researchers drew on hospital records, official US military statistics, news reports, and survey methodology to arrive at their figures.

They were also able to make use of two earlier studies on Iraq's war dead from Iraq Body Count, a website which has kept a running total of those killed, and the Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict, which has sought to count the dead and injured of the war in order to pursue compensation claims for their families.

The new report, which estimates Iraq's war dead at between 10,800 and 15,100, uses a far more rigorous definition of civilian than the other studies to arrive at a figure of between 3,200 and 4,300 civilian noncombatants.
It breaks down the combat deaths of up to 10,800 Iraqis who fought the American invasion. The figures include regular Iraqi troops, as well as members of the Ba'ath party and other militias.
The killing was concentrated - with heavy casualties at the southern entrances of Baghdad - but as many as 80% of the Iraqi army units survived the war relatively unscathed, in part because troops deserted.

As many as 5,726 Iraqis were killed in the US assault on Baghdad, when the streets of the Iraqi capital were strewn with the bodies of people trying to flee the fighting.
As many as 3,531 - more than half - of the dead in the assault on the capital were noncombatant civilians, according to the report.
 

Muck Spreader

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Limousin
Possible, but it seems very unlikely to me; any links that can back that up?

However, I saw a retired UK General being interviewed last night - Times Radio I think - and he echoed something I've heard from a pretty senior serving officer; that although we (Western defence / intelligence) think that the conflict there is most likely to drag on... there is also a very real chance that it could end abruptly for one or a combination of several reasons.

Most unlikely is that President Zelensky is killed or for another reason Ukrainian resolve collapses. Less unlikely, but not yet probable, is that Putin is overthrown (or dies, I guess). But what is now considered more likely, but still very far from certain, is that the Russian forces in theatre simply collapse / revolt.

We know that it's now 'officially' estimated that they've lost 30% of their teeth-arms, and we know that our MOD etc. do tend toward the conservative in their figures; so it could well be significantly more, certainly Russia will be doing all it can to restrict knowledge of the real figures.

But this does also tally with things posted on some forces' chat-rooms by former UK servicemen now in Ukraine. A couple of fellows who I know are pukka, and who were a bit sneaky over here so are probably being so over there, reckon that a lot of the Russian BTGs they have observed are 'operating' at very low manning levels, maybe as low as 50% in some cases, definitely less than 75%. Even if it's the lower figure, and only 25% are missing, that has huge practical and tactical implications - and, as was discussed earlier, the BTG is a pretty crap organisation / set-up anyway.

The problem the Russians have is that when you take unsustainable casualty numbers, you're in a spiral you can't get out of, other than by retreat. Food for thought.
You have got to assume that at least 80 to 90% of the men and equipment Russia originally invaded with, are now dead, destroyed or hors de combat in some other way. With little chance of much in the way of quality replacements ever becoming available. I was looking a some calculations on Russia's total tank availability which was estimated at only around 3000 serviceable units at the start of the invasion.
 

Danllan

Member
Location
Sir Gar / Carms
You have got to assume that at least 80 to 90% of the men and equipment Russia originally invaded with, are now dead, destroyed or hors de combat in some other way. With little chance of much in the way of quality replacements ever becoming available. I was looking a some calculations on Russia's total tank availability which was estimated at only around 3000 serviceable units at the start of the invasion.
Hmm... possible, but probably not realistic overall. I mentioned an Army chat-room earlier, it has contributors that are currently, verifiably (meaning known to me, or to people I know of and trust) operating in Ukraine. Some, who I don't know myself but who are accepted as genuine by others I do know, have given pretty high estimates of materiel being written off, but - other than for individual units - I haven't seen any claim higher than 70% overall, yet.

But the thing is, even if it's 'only' 50%, that still more than halves the operational effectiveness of the remaining Russian force over there, since its flank protection etc. now require a daft proportion of what remains.

I have seen it mentioned that Ukrainian SF have done an outstanding job in targeting the Russian logistical chain. And that means taking out bridges after convoys have crossed them and then in the front of them, and then mopping up... the number of units they have doing this is pretty high, so I'd not be surprised if the Russian truck fleet inside Ukraine has had more than 75% of its overall numbers put out of use. And, of course, without re-supply, everything else is shafted...

Your 3000 tanks tallies with what I've heard too; I don't know how many Russia really deployed in Ukraine, but I do know that the count of verified hits on them (geolocated by footage and differentiated by damage patterns) was over 600 when I checked last week, which is a huge number, probably more than half those deployed! :woot:


My grandfather as a 17 year old was sent out into no man’s land after battles to shoot the wounded In 1914😕
Ours, theirs, or both? :(
 

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Man fined £300 for bonfire-related waste offences

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Written by William Kellett from Agriland

court-640x360.jpg
A man has pleaded guilty at Newtownards Magistrates’ Court to waste offences relating to a bonfire next to the electrical sub-station on the Circular Road in Newtownards, Co. Down.

Gareth Gill (51) of Abbot’s Walk, Newtownards pleaded guilty to two charges under the Waste and Contaminated Land (Northern Ireland) Order 1997, for which he was fined £150 each and ordered to pay a £15 offender’s levy

On June 25, 2018, PSNI officers went to Gill’s yard, where they found a large amount of waste consisting of scrap wood, pallets, carpet and underlay.

Discussion with Northern Ireland Environment Agency (NIEA) officers confirmed the site...
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