They haven't got a clue

bobk

Member
Location
stafford
Weather forecasts are getting on my t### at the mo, changes hourly and invariably wrong, according to the bbc we have heavy rain and sun :rolleyes: the reality is dry and dark cloud , this isn't even a forecast ffs it isn't happening now...... and breathe .
 

Sussex Martin

Member
Location
Burham Kent
Weather forcast yesterday said chance of a shower early this morning, shearer phoned late yesterday afternoon 'can you stick em inside overnight just in case' ?
Did what he asked and woke this morning at 6 to heavy rain that continued for over an hour, steady rain followed until gone 9. Rained on and off most of the morning :mad:.
The forcast at 6.15 was correct by the way, I'm sure they just look out the window to give an update :(.
 

bobk

Member
Location
stafford
Just checked our present weather and it's still pi55ing down... ffs they can't be arsed to open the window , hasn't rained all day
 

RushesToo

Member
Location
Fingringhoe
Depends on the forecast the met office one looks like the below, it says rain at 19:00 but the chance is only 30%, so for the majority of this area there will be no rain. It is still shown as a risk of rain.

They are telling you how much they are guessing in the the box. It is up to you to use this as best you can. If seaweed works better then go for it.

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Got an 'event' on this weekend, so have casually been watching the long term forecast for the day in question, I kid you not, I think just about every type of weather apart from snow has been forecast for that day over the course of the last 30 days. why they bother with long term forecasts, I don't know .
 

Bury the Trash

Member
Mixed Farmer
they seem to invest money in the job (computers technology)but without gains in accuracy for long or even short term forecasts how do the fisherman cope-I suppose the marine forecasts are more accurate though no hills and mountains and valleys
 

Paddington

Member
Location
Soggy Shropshire
Michael Fish (he of the Great Storm) was being interviewed last year. He said in 1987 the Met Office could only a day ahead with any accuracy, whereas now they could give an accurate forecast of three days ahead!
 

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
Michael Fish (he of the Great Storm) was being interviewed last year. He said in 1987 the Met Office could only a day ahead with any accuracy, whereas now they could give an accurate forecast of three days ahead!

Todays computers are approximately 20 thousand times faster than the ones available to Michael Fish in the late 80s, and that increase in computing power has only resulted in a an extra 2 days predictive capacity. Assuming Moore's Law continues to hold (that computing power continues to double every 2 years), I guess that we might get another 2 days accurate forecasts in another 25-30 years or thereabouts.
 

Wastexprt

Member
BASIS
Todays computers are approximately 20 thousand times faster than the ones available to Michael Fish in the late 80s, and that increase in computing power has only resulted in a an extra 2 days predictive capacity. Assuming Moore's Law continues to hold (that computing power continues to double every 2 years), I guess that we might get another 2 days accurate forecasts in another 25-30 years or thereabouts.
Makes you wonder how they can then base a whole raft of taxation and regulation on 'Global Warming' if their models are as accurate as that......
 
Dare I stick my head above the parapet chaps? ;) Oh go on then!

This is not a criticism of the user (i.e. you). We forecasters fell into the trap several years ago of making internet forecasts available, free of charge, with location specific predictions hour-by-hour.

It just isn't possible to deliver this level of accuracy and it dupes the user into thinking that it is. Quite simply, a computer cannot forecast hour-by-hour. It can give us, the human forecaster, an indication as to possible development areas and then it is down to our expertise and experience to forecast the details surrounding that indication. I hope that the service we offer though WeatherLIVE actually delivers 'proper' forecasts with the required statement of confidence.

The Look Ahead forecast videos which I record each day are simply a guide as to what might happen. These forecast will change each day, but the aim is to get the general indications correct. Our Farmers Weather videos are shorter term and, although they may change, they should be fairly reliable.

Believe me, as an professional forecast to see the diatribe punted out on internet weather sites is as frustrating for me as it is for you. We simply should not be giving the impression that this level of accuracy is possible. A massive disclaimer should be applied to every one of these forecasts.

I guess ultimately, you get what you pay for. Farmers Weather is funded, the videos ar paid for by Farmers Guardian. I personally fund the Look Ahead videos with a view to building a subscription service in future.

As for the free stuff you see on the internet? Well, that's exactly what it is....free. And I;m afraid the old adage applies - 'you get what you pay for'!

And relax :)

Simon
 

bobk

Member
Location
stafford
Dare I stick my head above the parapet chaps? ;) Oh go on then!

This is not a criticism of the user (i.e. you). We forecasters fell into the trap several years ago of making internet forecasts available, free of charge, with location specific predictions hour-by-hour.

It just isn't possible to deliver this level of accuracy and it dupes the user into thinking that it is. Quite simply, a computer cannot forecast hour-by-hour. It can give us, the human forecaster, an indication as to possible development areas and then it is down to our expertise and experience to forecast the details surrounding that indication. I hope that the service we offer though WeatherLIVE actually delivers 'proper' forecasts with the required statement of confidence.

The Look Ahead forecast videos which I record each day are simply a guide as to what might happen. These forecast will change each day, but the aim is to get the general indications correct. Our Farmers Weather videos are shorter term and, although they may change, they should be fairly reliable.

Believe me, as an professional forecast to see the diatribe punted out on internet weather sites is as frustrating for me as it is for you. We simply should not be giving the impression that this level of accuracy is possible. A massive disclaimer should be applied to every one of these forecasts.

I guess ultimately, you get what you pay for. Farmers Weather is funded, the videos ar paid for by Farmers Guardian. I personally fund the Look Ahead videos with a view to building a subscription service in future.

As for the free stuff you see on the internet? Well, that's exactly what it is....free. And I;m afraid the old adage applies - 'you get what you pay for'!

And relax :)



Simon


So if @Clive puts his hand in his pocket you'll make better weather ?
 

rob1

Member
Location
wiltshire
Dare I stick my head above the parapet chaps? ;) Oh go on then!

This is not a criticism of the user (i.e. you). We forecasters fell into the trap several years ago of making internet forecasts available, free of charge, with location specific predictions hour-by-hour.

It just isn't possible to deliver this level of accuracy and it dupes the user into thinking that it is. Quite simply, a computer cannot forecast hour-by-hour. It can give us, the human forecaster, an indication as to possible development areas and then it is down to our expertise and experience to forecast the details surrounding that indication. I hope that the service we offer though WeatherLIVE actually delivers 'proper' forecasts with the required statement of confidence.

The Look Ahead forecast videos which I record each day are simply a guide as to what might happen. These forecast will change each day, but the aim is to get the general indications correct. Our Farmers Weather videos are shorter term and, although they may change, they should be fairly reliable.

Believe me, as an professional forecast to see the diatribe punted out on internet weather sites is as frustrating for me as it is for you. We simply should not be giving the impression that this level of accuracy is possible. A massive disclaimer should be applied to every one of these forecasts.

I guess ultimately, you get what you pay for. Farmers Weather is funded, the videos ar paid for by Farmers Guardian. I personally fund the Look Ahead videos with a view to building a subscription service in future.

As for the free stuff you see on the internet? Well, that's exactly what it is....free. And I;m afraid the old adage applies - 'you get what you pay for'!

And relax :)

Simon
Credit it to you Simon for doing a forecast on a farming forum, you are on a hiding to nothing.
Perhaps it would be interesting to see how accurate your monthly predictions have been, do you keep such figures ?
 
"Credit it to you Simon for doing a forecast on a farming forum, you are on a hiding to nothing."
Yeah, I must be mad ;)

Oh dear, the dreaded 'accuracy' stats. And therein lies another tale.

Firstly, what are we measuring? When I make monthly/seasonal predictions I always stress they are guidance and subject to change. These 'guidances' are to be seen completely differently to conventional day to day forecasts. It's the trends in the guidance forecast which should be of most use, rather than the forecasts themselves. So, for example, if a long range forecast (see you have me saying 'forecast'; now :) ) changes day to day or week to week then confidence in that forecast must be low. If it is a consistent story the confidence in it rises.

Should you be using the longer ranges to plan day to day activities? Certainly not, but what you can do is use them to plan workloads in the coming month, i.e. I am currently thinking (could all change), somewhere mid-June for a 5 or 6 day spell of decent harvesting weather. As a farmer I'd expect you to now be thinking about contractors for that time, with a view to it possible all changing the closer we get. But at least some information is better than no information at all.

I produce monthly 'forecast' maps of temperature and rainfall for some private clients. These are amended and updated, but the originals are always available. They are available and can be used as a rough guide, but can't really be used for true accuracy figures as they aren't that sort of guide. Probably not making much sense, but I hope you understand.

You might think measuring day to day accuracy is easier. Oh, how wrong you would be! Did you know the Met Office use a guide of +/- 2C for maximum and minimum temperatures? From their website "The early morning forecast on our website is used to produce a percentage number of the times when the forecast is accurate to within +/- 2°C". Now, that means that if I predict a maximum temperature for your farm of 20C for tomorrow, if it is anywhere in the range 18 to 22C then I have been 100% accurate! Or, if I predict a minimum temperature of 2C, anywhere between 0C (a frost) and +4C (certainly no frost) is deemed accurate?

To me those figures don't stack up.

So accuracy is certainly a debate that we need to have. Ultimately, I believe it is my customers (you!) who get to say whether I am accurate or not. If we aren't accurate, you don't use us, and certainly won't pay for our forecasts.

Sorry, wittering on, but this is a topic I've struggled with for many, many years.

Best wishes,
Simon
 
Me again, just wanted to add one more thing.

Many of you now call my WeatherLIVE service. And to a man, farmers are the most appreciative and understanding of all our customers. You tell us what you want to do, we give you our best forecast and help you plan. You're polite and don't mind spending a few shekels if it returns value for money and makes your lives easier. You understand there are limits to our forecasts, and if you ask about stuff beyond a week then frequently its you saying 'I know it can change', not us! So there is a fundamental appreciation that the weather forecast can change, but you don't want flip-flopping everyday. If we aren't certain of a forecast, then as forecasters we should say so and give a statement of confidence.

I don't buy into the 'farmers are tight' line. My experience is that you are careful with your money, don't spend it frivolously, and expect other people to have empathy with what you are trying to achieve.

Phew! That feels better :)

Simon
 

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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