Michael Fish (he of the Great Storm) was being interviewed last year. He said in 1987 the Met Office could only a day ahead with any accuracy, whereas now they could give an accurate forecast of three days ahead!
Makes you wonder how they can then base a whole raft of taxation and regulation on 'Global Warming' if their models are as accurate as that......Todays computers are approximately 20 thousand times faster than the ones available to Michael Fish in the late 80s, and that increase in computing power has only resulted in a an extra 2 days predictive capacity. Assuming Moore's Law continues to hold (that computing power continues to double every 2 years), I guess that we might get another 2 days accurate forecasts in another 25-30 years or thereabouts.
Dare I stick my head above the parapet chaps? Oh go on then!
This is not a criticism of the user (i.e. you). We forecasters fell into the trap several years ago of making internet forecasts available, free of charge, with location specific predictions hour-by-hour.
It just isn't possible to deliver this level of accuracy and it dupes the user into thinking that it is. Quite simply, a computer cannot forecast hour-by-hour. It can give us, the human forecaster, an indication as to possible development areas and then it is down to our expertise and experience to forecast the details surrounding that indication. I hope that the service we offer though WeatherLIVE actually delivers 'proper' forecasts with the required statement of confidence.
The Look Ahead forecast videos which I record each day are simply a guide as to what might happen. These forecast will change each day, but the aim is to get the general indications correct. Our Farmers Weather videos are shorter term and, although they may change, they should be fairly reliable.
Believe me, as an professional forecast to see the diatribe punted out on internet weather sites is as frustrating for me as it is for you. We simply should not be giving the impression that this level of accuracy is possible. A massive disclaimer should be applied to every one of these forecasts.
I guess ultimately, you get what you pay for. Farmers Weather is funded, the videos ar paid for by Farmers Guardian. I personally fund the Look Ahead videos with a view to building a subscription service in future.
As for the free stuff you see on the internet? Well, that's exactly what it is....free. And I;m afraid the old adage applies - 'you get what you pay for'!
And relax
Simon
Credit it to you Simon for doing a forecast on a farming forum, you are on a hiding to nothing.Dare I stick my head above the parapet chaps? Oh go on then!
This is not a criticism of the user (i.e. you). We forecasters fell into the trap several years ago of making internet forecasts available, free of charge, with location specific predictions hour-by-hour.
It just isn't possible to deliver this level of accuracy and it dupes the user into thinking that it is. Quite simply, a computer cannot forecast hour-by-hour. It can give us, the human forecaster, an indication as to possible development areas and then it is down to our expertise and experience to forecast the details surrounding that indication. I hope that the service we offer though WeatherLIVE actually delivers 'proper' forecasts with the required statement of confidence.
The Look Ahead forecast videos which I record each day are simply a guide as to what might happen. These forecast will change each day, but the aim is to get the general indications correct. Our Farmers Weather videos are shorter term and, although they may change, they should be fairly reliable.
Believe me, as an professional forecast to see the diatribe punted out on internet weather sites is as frustrating for me as it is for you. We simply should not be giving the impression that this level of accuracy is possible. A massive disclaimer should be applied to every one of these forecasts.
I guess ultimately, you get what you pay for. Farmers Weather is funded, the videos ar paid for by Farmers Guardian. I personally fund the Look Ahead videos with a view to building a subscription service in future.
As for the free stuff you see on the internet? Well, that's exactly what it is....free. And I;m afraid the old adage applies - 'you get what you pay for'!
And relax
Simon