Thoughts of Italian doctors on Covid-19 mutating into other strains...

[ollie989898]

Could the Coronavirus Be Weakening as It Spreads?

Comments from two Italian doctors have triggered a wave of expert rebukes, but not everyone thinks that their views are far-fetched

elemental.medium.com

OnMay 31, the news agency Reuters published an article with an optimistic but incendiary headline: “New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says.”

The story included comments from hospital leaders in Milan and Genoa, cities in two regions of northern Italy that have been hit hard by Covid-19. The doctors’ comments were pulled from published news reports in the Italian media, and both suggested that the virus is growing weaker. Matteo Bassetti, MD, PhD, is head of the Infectious Diseases Clinic at the San Martino-IST University Hospital and a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Genoa. He is quoted in the Reuters piece as saying that, “The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today.”

Reached for comment on Tuesday, Bassetti elaborated on his prior statement for Elemental. “What is happening in our hospitals — at least in the northern part of Italy — the clinical impression is that the disease is now different compared to the disease of three months ago,” he says. “The majority of patients who presented in our emergency rooms or wards during March and April were very sick with acute respiratory distress syndrome, shock, multiple organ failure, and the majority died in the first days after admission. Now in May, we no longer see these types of patients.”

The above is pretty controversial to say the least but I thought I would post it here for interest.

One the one hand, the idea that the virus is losing it's virulence as it's genome is diluted (remember it was probably an animal virus to begin with) does reconcile with our experience of other viruses like HIV (which used to kill people within months in the past) which definitely became a lot more user-friendly over time.

On the other hand, it is possible that the viral load people are being infected by in recent weeks is a lot lower than the bigger doses experienced by those in the outbreak initially. This gives people a longer time for the immune system to line up it's ducks before the disease can proliferate and cause big problems.

 

[robs1]

Wasnt the same thing mentioned from Birmingham a week or so ago.

 

[Johnnyboxer]

Interesting

 

[Exfarmer]

Could the Coronavirus Be Weakening as It Spreads?

Comments from two Italian doctors have triggered a wave of expert rebukes, but not everyone thinks that their views are far-fetched

elemental.medium.com

OnMay 31, the news agency Reuters published an article with an optimistic but incendiary headline: “New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says.”

The story included comments from hospital leaders in Milan and Genoa, cities in two regions of northern Italy that have been hit hard by Covid-19. The doctors’ comments were pulled from published news reports in the Italian media, and both suggested that the virus is growing weaker. Matteo Bassetti, MD, PhD, is head of the Infectious Diseases Clinic at the San Martino-IST University Hospital and a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Genoa. He is quoted in the Reuters piece as saying that, “The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today.”

Reached for comment on Tuesday, Bassetti elaborated on his prior statement for Elemental. “What is happening in our hospitals — at least in the northern part of Italy — the clinical impression is that the disease is now different compared to the disease of three months ago,” he says. “The majority of patients who presented in our emergency rooms or wards during March and April were very sick with acute respiratory distress syndrome, shock, multiple organ failure, and the majority died in the first days after admission. Now in May, we no longer see these types of patients.”

The above is pretty controversial to say the least but I thought I would post it here for interest.

One the one hand, the idea that the virus is losing it's virulence as it's genome is diluted (remember it was probably an animal virus to begin with) does reconcile with our experience of other viruses like HIV (which used to kill people within months in the past) which definitely became a lot more user-friendly over time.

On the other hand, it is possible that the viral load people are being infected by in recent weeks is a lot lower than the bigger doses experienced by those in the outbreak initially. This gives people a longer time for the immune system to line up it's ducks before the disease can proliferate and cause big problems.

Ollie I rather think HIV has only lost its virulence thanks to a regime of hugely expensive drugs!

 

[Danllan]

Heard the same thing when a clinician from one of the London teaching hospitals was interviewed a week or two ago. It makes sense; but the mutability of this virus is not yet fully understood, so it would take a pretty decent and rigorously reviewed paper to convince me of it for now.

Ollie I rather think HIV has only lost its virulence thanks to a regime of hugely expensive drugs!

No, there are any number of papers that you can find online which demonstrate that it is now far less aggressive than it once was. I can't recall where - the US or Canada I think - but one research facility had / has some of the early sort and it's in different league to the current one.

 

[Exfarmer]

Heard the same thing when a clinician from one of the London teaching hospitals was interviewed a week or two ago. It makes sense; but the mutability of this virus is not yet fully understood, so it would take a pretty decent and rigorously reviewed paper to convince me of it for now.


No, there are any number of papers that you can find online which demonstrate that it is now far less aggressive than it once was. I can't recall where - the US or Canada I think - but one research facility had / has some of the early sort and it's in different league to the current one.

Danllan I respect your views on law, but you have not a clue on viruses, of other nasty particles. There is no way in Hell a laboratory can decide that a certain virus is more virulent than another without testing it on humans , and that would only ever happen in China?

 

[ollie989898]

Ollie I rather think HIV has only lost its virulence thanks to a regime of hugely expensive drugs!

The drugs for HIV treatment are expensive (they lose their patents in coming years I understand). However, they do effectively control the spread of it, NICE did the work and reckoned it was still cheaper to treat individual patients than have the virus spread everywhere (which it does rather well unfortunately).

The virus has attenuated over the years: as I said it's lethality in the early years after it's discovery was horrendous. It killed at least one British researcher who did much of the early work on it, he became infected in the laboratory just from handling it routinely.

 

[Danllan]

Danllan I respect your views on law, but you have not a clue on viruses, of other nasty particles. There is no way in Hell a laboratory can decide that a certain virus is more virulent than another without testing it on humans , and that would only ever happen in China?

I dropped out from med' school after only a matter of weeks, so I'm happy to admit that my virological expertise is minimal at best. However, I am sufficiently clued-up and able to follow papers written by people who are expert in virology and microbiology, possibly even more so than you...


Are you really telling us that you aren't aware of in vitro research in re any number of viruses?

 

[Exfarmer]

I dropped out from med' school after only a matter of weeks, so I'm happy to admit that my virological expertise is minimal at best. However, I am sufficiently clued-up and able to follow papers written by people who are expert in virology and microbiology, possibly even more so than you...


Are you really telling us that you aren't aware of in vitro research in re any number of viruses?

In .vitro research cannot in any way tell you how the virus reacts in the real world.
it is like comparing how thecommobn cold affected people who have never had any exposure to the virus.

 

[ollie989898]

Impact of HLA-driven HIV adaptation on virulence in populations of high HIV seroprevalence

Factors that influence the virulence of HIV are of direct relevance to ongoing efforts to contain, and ultimately eradicate, the HIV epidemic. We here investigate in Botswana and South Africa, countries severely affected by HIV, the impact on HIV virulence of adaptation of HIV to protective HLA...

www.pnas.org

This study, though only available in an abbreviated form, was conducted on cohorts of HIV positive people in Botswana and South Africa (Africa being the first place the virus was isolated so it has presumably been in circulation the longest and is thus the best area of study) and they found evidence in vitro that the virus was demonstrably less virulent when comparing the two cohorts and isolates from them.

 

[ollie989898]

In .vitro research cannot in any way tell you how the virus reacts in the real world.
it is like comparing how thecommobn cold affected people who have never had any exposure to the virus.

In vitro research is used because it greatly simplifies experimentation. Because of the way viruses work it is very very difficult to control factors which may unduly effect the results of any kind of trial. For starters, if you gathered 1000 different human hosts for a trial, not one of them will have the same genetic material or immune system as another. And these undoubtedly play a role in the pathology of a viral disease. No, it does not create real-world conditions but it is a useful way to study viruses and how they behave in a reliable fashion.

 

[czechmate]

Could the Coronavirus Be Weakening as It Spreads?

Comments from two Italian doctors have triggered a wave of expert rebukes, but not everyone thinks that their views are far-fetched

elemental.medium.com

OnMay 31, the news agency Reuters published an article with an optimistic but incendiary headline: “New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says.”

The story included comments from hospital leaders in Milan and Genoa, cities in two regions of northern Italy that have been hit hard by Covid-19. The doctors’ comments were pulled from published news reports in the Italian media, and both suggested that the virus is growing weaker. Matteo Bassetti, MD, PhD, is head of the Infectious Diseases Clinic at the San Martino-IST University Hospital and a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Genoa. He is quoted in the Reuters piece as saying that, “The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today.”

Reached for comment on Tuesday, Bassetti elaborated on his prior statement for Elemental. “What is happening in our hospitals — at least in the northern part of Italy — the clinical impression is that the disease is now different compared to the disease of three months ago,” he says. “The majority of patients who presented in our emergency rooms or wards during March and April were very sick with acute respiratory distress syndrome, shock, multiple organ failure, and the majority died in the first days after admission. Now in May, we no longer see these types of patients.”

The above is pretty controversial to say the least but I thought I would post it here for interest.

One the one hand, the idea that the virus is losing it's virulence as it's genome is diluted (remember it was probably an animal virus to begin with) does reconcile with our experience of other viruses like HIV (which used to kill people within months in the past) which definitely became a lot more user-friendly over time.

On the other hand, it is possible that the viral load people are being infected by in recent weeks is a lot lower than the bigger doses experienced by those in the outbreak initially. This gives people a longer time for the immune system to line up it's ducks before the disease can proliferate and cause big problems.

It’s a nice idea.
It seems it’s still pretty nasty in US, Mexico, Brazil, SA, India...

 

[Danllan]

It’s a nice idea.
It seems it’s still pretty nasty in US, Mexico, Brazil, SA, India...

Yep, because the virus is still in its 'first flush' over there; if this theory is right, it will diminish somewhat.

 

[ollie989898]

It’s a nice idea.
It seems it’s still pretty nasty in US, Mexico, Brazil, SA, India...

It's a very contentious topic and research is still on going. Some viruses do seem to attenuate over time but there is a lot of debate about why that might be.

 

[czechmate]

Yep, because the virus is still in its 'first flush' over there; if this theory is right, it will diminish somewhat.

“First flush”?
I certainly recall the “orange idiot” saying it would all be over the the US would be open for business by Easter, seems a long way back now

 

[Exfarmer]

Yep, because the virus is still in its 'first flush' over there; if this theory is right, it will diminish somewhat.

The US certainly had some of the first cases outside China

 

[czechmate]

It's a very contentious topic and research is still on going. Some viruses do seem to attenuate over time but there is a lot of debate about why that might be.

Dead people don’t spread it so much

 

[Danllan]

“First flush”?
I certainly recall the “orange idiot” saying it would all be over the the US would be open for business by Easter, seems a long way back now

His idiocy doesn't change the evidence one way or the other.

The US certainly had some of the first cases outside China

There was a definite case of it in Paris in November 2019, although it was diagnosed retrospectively.

 

[Exfarmer]

His idiocy doesn't change the evidence one way or the other.


There was a definite case of it in Paris in November 2019, although it was diagnosed retrospectively.

No it was 27th December, although it is extremely likely he caught it from His wife who worked at CDG which would put it back at least a couple of weeks

 

[Danllan]

No it was 27th December, although it is extremely likely he caught it from His wife who worked at CDG which would put it back at least a couple of weeks

You got me thinking, and I was certain that I correctly recalled the mention of November. However I was incorrect regarding my mention of Paris.

Coronavirus may have been in Europe in NOVEMBER

Scientists from Colmar, northeastern France, examined almost 2,500 X-rays from late 2019 and were able to identify two scans that presented with the symptoms of Covid-19.

www.dailymail.co.uk