Tractor depreciation forecast discussion

[Rattie]

I had a brainwave last night, possibly not a good thing...

Does anyone survey ag college /uni leavers about their views on Ag brands and their potential buying decisions? Seems that once back on farm, they generally have potential to sway decisions increasingly, might give a long term view on the demise and rise of different brands?

For example JD came on strong in the 90s and is now bought by 50 - 60 year olds, Fendt seems to be the current flavour of those in their 30-40s.

Most kids don't think there parents stuff is cool, so whats the next big trend?

Kubota? Claas? Valtra? The new Massey in the press looks good to me, so will almost certainly bomb! I personally hope its driverless!

 

[Cowabunga]

The next 'big thing' might well be swarms of 'little things' working 24 hours a day off your desktop PC or even your tablet. Mainly on grain farms though, certainly not on livestock farms where a lot more skill is required due to the varied work and tighter spaces.
Otherwise as with every place where IC engines are now used as a power source, alternative fuels will come, eventually.
The next big thing is a rolling kind of thing where it is constantly evolving and there will probably be plenty of choices of brands competing. The trick is, not to be fixated by a brand, like a child, but to buy the best and most appropriate tool for the job you have at the time with some spare power and versatility for it not needed to be changed until the end of its useful long life.

 

[Rattie]

The next 'big thing' might well be swarms of 'little things' working 24 hours a day off your desktop PC or even your tablet. Mainly on grain farms though, certainly not on livestock farms where a lot more skill is required due to the varied work and tighter spaces.

I really hope you are right, mixed farming here, suckler cattle and Organic cereals. Less time in a cab and more in the shed (or pub) would suit me.

 

[njneer]

Waste of time I would think , what answers do you think you are going to get from a generation who wear Grassmen T Shirts like A Uniform and believe ” Drive the yolk like you stole her “ is an actual section in the operators manual.
All you will get is a wish list.
Personally I think in the coming years that brand favouritism and personal ego will be hit with a harsh dose of reality.
I do agree though that the next generation have a massive say in machinery purchase , especially tractors, but sadly , in many cases, for all the wrong reasons.
I am not saying that having brand x or y is entirely about ego or brand snobbery , I am sure there are many who are entirely justified in their purchase planning. Reliability ,warranty and back up all come in to play especially on the bigger enterprises but I see Many running about in far over specked machinery for their farming needs and at the same time crying murder about the price of milk etc but again , at the end of the day it’s their money to spend as they wish.
The current favoured and fashionable “Must have “ brands ,as determined by the “ next generation” with all the bells and whistles two CB Ariel and the mandatory twin beacons are the culmination of brand snobbery , Pub Ego , social media bragging rights and the incumbent generation talking themselves into Spending artificial “ profits” for “ tax reasons” on over priced , over specced tractors to keep the little darlings happy and hopefully at home on the farm or to keep a half decent member of staff happy.
Now I am not saying that this is entirely wrong, good staff are hard to find, and harder to keep, and keeping the next generation motivated and interested is the very essence of the survival of the industry but at the same time there is a fair amount of tail wagging the dog going on based on little more than an attitude of “ I want” and ego gratification.
With uncertainty over Brexit, trade deals and subsidies, aka ( artificial profits) and the ever increasing price of kit I think in coming years there will be an inevitable separation of wheat and chaff in regard to the real profitability in some enterprises and that people may Suddenly find , usually after a long chat with the accountant, that they will have to accept that they have to cut their machinery cloth accordingly and brand snobbery and ego will have to take a back seat to viability and survival and a realisation that , actually, in the end, brand c, d, e and f , whilst not the glamorous stuff of flashy internet interviews and drone footage , will do the job just the same.

 

[Cowabunga]

Waste of time I would think , what answers do you think you are going to get from a generation who wear Grassmen T Shirts like A Uniform and believe ” Drive the yolk like you stole her “ is an actual section in the operators manual.
All you will get is a wish list.
Personally I think in the coming years that brand favouritism and personal ego will be hit with a harsh dose of reality.
I do agree though that the next generation have a massive say in machinery purchase , especially tractors, but sadly , in many cases, for all the wrong reasons.
I am not saying that having brand x or y is entirely about ego or brand snobbery , I am sure there are many who are entirely justified in their purchase planning. Reliability ,warranty and back up all come in to play especially on the bigger enterprises but I see Many running about in far over specked machinery for their farming needs and at the same time crying murder about the price of milk etc but again , at the end of the day it’s their money to spend as they wish.
The current favoured and fashionable “Must have “ brands ,as determined by the “ next generation” with all the bells and whistles two CB Ariel and the mandatory twin beacons are the culmination of brand snobbery , Pub Ego , social media bragging rights and the incumbent generation talking themselves into Spending artificial “ profits” for “ tax reasons” on over priced , over specced tractors to keep the little darlings happy and hopefully at home on the farm or to keep a half decent member of staff happy.
Now I am not saying that this is entirely wrong, good staff are hard to find, and harder to keep, and keeping the next generation motivated and interested is the very essence of the survival of the industry but at the same time there is a fair amount of tail wagging the dog going on based on little more than an attitude of “ I want” and ego gratification.
With uncertainty over Brexit, trade deals and subsidies, aka ( artificial profits) and the ever increasing price of kit I think in coming years there will be an inevitable separation of wheat and chaff in regard to the real profitability in some enterprises and that people may Suddenly find , usually after a long chat with the accountant, that they will have to accept that they have to cut their machinery cloth accordingly and brand snobbery and ego will have to take a back seat to viability and survival and a realisation that , actually, in the end, brand c, d, e and f , whilst not the glamorous stuff of flashy internet interviews and drone footage , will do the job just the same.

When I bought my Same Titan 160, many thought it way over-specced and too powerful. Similar views were expressed when I bought the NH 8360 Range Command with front end loader. Now, 27 and 23 years later with 7000 and 9000 hours respectively on their clocks, they are seen as basic classics and 'what a bargain they were when new'.
Mind you, neither has a beacon, so that's alright then.
Wish the Same had front suspension. Was carting slurry long distance with it the other day and, oh boy, was it rough to drive and tiring.

 

[daveydiesel1]

Waste of time I would think , what answers do you think you are going to get from a generation who wear Grassmen T Shirts like A Uniform and believe ” Drive the yolk like you stole her “ is an actual section in the operators manual.
All you will get is a wish list.
Personally I think in the coming years that brand favouritism and personal ego will be hit with a harsh dose of reality.
I do agree though that the next generation have a massive say in machinery purchase , especially tractors, but sadly , in many cases, for all the wrong reasons.
I am not saying that having brand x or y is entirely about ego or brand snobbery , I am sure there are many who are entirely justified in their purchase planning. Reliability ,warranty and back up all come in to play especially on the bigger enterprises but I see Many running about in far over specked machinery for their farming needs and at the same time crying murder about the price of milk etc but again , at the end of the day it’s their money to spend as they wish.
The current favoured and fashionable “Must have “ brands ,as determined by the “ next generation” with all the bells and whistles two CB Ariel and the mandatory twin beacons are the culmination of brand snobbery , Pub Ego , social media bragging rights and the incumbent generation talking themselves into Spending artificial “ profits” for “ tax reasons” on over priced , over specced tractors to keep the little darlings happy and hopefully at home on the farm or to keep a half decent member of staff happy.
Now I am not saying that this is entirely wrong, good staff are hard to find, and harder to keep, and keeping the next generation motivated and interested is the very essence of the survival of the industry but at the same time there is a fair amount of tail wagging the dog going on based on little more than an attitude of “ I want” and ego gratification.
With uncertainty over Brexit, trade deals and subsidies, aka ( artificial profits) and the ever increasing price of kit I think in coming years there will be an inevitable separation of wheat and chaff in regard to the real profitability in some enterprises and that people may Suddenly find , usually after a long chat with the accountant, that they will have to accept that they have to cut their machinery cloth accordingly and brand snobbery and ego will have to take a back seat to viability and survival and a realisation that , actually, in the end, brand c, d, e and f , whilst not the glamorous stuff of flashy internet interviews and drone footage , will do the job just the same.

I kind of agree and disagree. Some livestock farmers are drivin way over specced machines but i dont think theyl stop buyin these. As the duck said what was high spec is now low spec. What we expect of a tractor now is way higher than 20 years ago. I dont have a fancy tractor but id like 1 way suspension as am not a teenager any more and my back feels the strain of bein bounced about. Machines are more demandin than b4 with need for ccls hydralics and guidance. Contractors are needin these things to keep customers happy. Ppl complain about no money and the price o machinery and how they would like a simple tractor way nothin to go wrong but the simple fact is they dont want that as is evident that hardly no1 buys a m series deere or a massey global or a zetor which stil can be had with dry clutch and mechanical shuttle. They want thier toys and just spread it over more years. Years ago it was common practice to pay a tractor over 2/3 years now its 4/7 years. Wouldnt be my idea of fun but each to thier own

 

[Cowabunga]

Try keeping up with a modern self propelled forager with a tractor that doesn't have a good semi-powershift and 150hp at the very least. Especially if the land is not flat.

 

[Optimus]

Just had a quote to change a 17 plate with 2800 hours like for like. 35k

 

[livestock 1]

Just had a quote to change a 17 plate with 2800 hours like for like. 35k

Does that mean depreciation is £12.50 per clock hour?

 

[SilliamWhale]

Just had a quote to change a 17 plate with 2800 hours like for like. 35k

Why change a 2800 hr tractor?

 

[Optimus]

I know but same old story isn't it.longer you leave it more it cost change whenever that time comes.

 

[Cowabunga]

I know but same old story isn't it.longer you leave it more it cost change whenever that time comes.

But the lower by far the depreciation per hour. In other words, unless you change soon after a major repair, the longer it is kept, the cheaper it is to run.

In an ideal world we would be back to 1970's profitability where tractors were only kept for a couple of years and maybe up to 1500 hours before being exported far away. Win-win for everyone at the time even though inflation was far worse than today. At one time I recall tractor prices doubling every three years.

 

[Optimus]

But the lower by far the depreciation per hour. In other words, unless you change soon after a major repair, the longer it is kept, the cheaper it is to run.

In an ideal world we would be back to 1970's profitability where tractors were only kept for a couple of years and maybe up to 1500 hours before being exported far away. Win-win for everyone at the time even though inflation was far worse than today. At one time I recall tractor prices doubling every three years.

Gone are those days unless money is no object.
Was annoyed with my self as I saw an 2 year old tractor same HP, same hours as mine but a lot better spec.would of done a straight swap then I could of upgraded my 16 year old loader tractor but near enough as quick as It was advertised it was sold.

 

[uztrac]

But the lower by far the depreciation per hour. In other words, unless you change soon after a major repair, the longer it is kept, the cheaper it is to run.

In an ideal world we would be back to 1970's profitability where tractors were only kept for a couple of years and maybe up to 1500 hours before being exported far away. Win-win for everyone at the time even though inflation was far worse than today. At one time I recall tractor prices doubling every three years.

This time period that you mention was also a waiting list time, order it today and perhaps get delivery next Easter,if you were lucky.

 

[Chae1]

A

Try keeping up with a modern self propelled forager with a tractor that doesn't have a good semi-powershift and 150hp at the very least. Especially if the land is not flat.

I was carting silage with my 1997 1135 fastrac last year. If I was filled at bottom of field the chopper nearly beat me to gate at top!

 

[Cowabunga]

This time period that you mention was also a waiting list time, order it today and perhaps get delivery next Easter,if you were lucky.

Apparently so, but I never had to wait at all, because local dealers ordered plenty forward for stock and all specs were pretty standardised back then with power steering and an auto hitch being the main options, the latter of which was dealer fitted anyhow. Dealers were incentivised to forward order to fulfil the demand for young used tractors to export.
Nobody hesitated taking a tractor because it would be almost guaranteed to sell on for more than the initial cost to buy.

Gwili Jones had Fords by the truckload and exported them and MF by the shipload and Willis had 135's come in loaded sideways on artics, one truck after the other as fast as the factory could build them.

Even in recent times there have been long waiting lists of between six months and a year for factory orders. It is up to dealers to stock order to meet expected demand so customers don't generally have to wait long, if at all if they are willing to compromise somewhat on specification and model, either up or down from expectations.

 

[Lincsman]

This time period that you mention was also a waiting list time, order it today and perhaps get delivery next Easter,if you were lucky.

There was a time when a Ford 5000 was on 18 month waiting list, about 1974 I think.

 

[Barleycorn]

There was a time when a Ford 5000 was on 18 month waiting list, about 1974 I think.

Fords and Masseys, that's how JD bulldozed into the market.