Tuesdays Look Ahead

[Simon Keeling]

Hi,

Here's todays Look Ahead video, watch at http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

I have some more news for you about July and of course some more on the prospects for a more unsettled weekend.

Keep the sun shining!

Simon

 

[Bob]

These longer range forecasts seem to be changing each day?? A week or so it seemed we were all doomed for July now it seems it is going to be dominated by high pressure.

 

[Simon Keeling]

Now you're just winding me up aren't you Bob

I never forecast a bad July, in fact I made the point of saying it would not be a washout. What I did say three weeks ago (and the videos are there for you to see) was that conditions would be mainly dry up to around the 8th/9th (this will be about three days out, not bad for a forecast three weeks in advance).

Then I said it looked set to become cool and showery, most showers north and west, fewer to the east and south. Those who have been calling Weather Live (and I think I said it in the videos) were advised that it wouldn't be a washout, but would make us work for it; one or two day dry spells were all we could expect mid July.

I also said that from around mid month (now amended to 18th/19th) we may get a period of 5 or 6 days of fine weather, before a thundery breakdown at the end of the month.

As I have said before, I'm happy to take it on the chin when things go belly-up, but I will wade in to defend a forecast

And....relax

Simon

 

[Bob]

Sorry Simon

But the forecast video you released on the 21st June you did say you had concerns that July was going to turn out wet. The videos are no longer available to view

Saturdays Look Ahead - A wet July?
Discussion in 'Weather' started by Simon Keeling, Jun 21, 2014.
Fast QuotesUnwatch Thread

1. 
   Offline
   Simon KeelingMember
   Send Private Message
   Hi,
   
   With such warm sea temperature around the UK I'm starting to be a little concerned that July could turn quite wet. Of course, I could be wrong, but things are starting to fall into place. This isn't a forecast yet, just some ideas.
   
   More in today's Look Ahead at http://www.weatherweb.net
   
   Keep the sun shining!

 

[Simon Keeling]

Hi,

I said 'a little concerned that July could turn quite wet'. In my videos I discuss ideas, possibilities and scenarios that could play out. The fact that I actually stress in the email that 'this isn't a forecast yet, just some ideas' makes it absolutely categorically clear that this was nothing more than a thought about July. My videos are not like turning on the TV and watching the BBC forecast.

I can't see how that can then be taken as a 'forecast' (when it so clearly says it isn't, and then be told that it was wrong! Also, remember we are only 2 days into July.

Keeps me on my toes though!

Simon

 

[Bob]

Never said it was wrong, who knows how the rest of the summer will turn out. Merely was pointing out that these longer range forecasts keep changing for July

No criticism of your forecasting skills intended

 

[Simon Keeling]

Hey Bob...none taken

Do expect long range forecasts to change though. Having carried out extensive research with several clients many of them now 'trade' on the changes made between forecasts, rather than the forecasts themselves.

I think the approach taken when using long range forecasts needs to change and it's down to us as forecasters to 'educate' (and that is not to be condescending) farmers (as probably the most weather aware group) in how to use them more effectively.

There is so much value now to be gained from longer range forecasts that they are usable and should save/make farmers a great deal of money. It's how they are used that is key.

Hope I'm making sense.

Simon

 

[Chae1]

That exact same thing is in farmers guardian. Looks like Simon was right up here. Rain forecast everyday next week from this Friday onwards. Hay going in the pit!

 

[Simon Keeling]

Don't panic Chae1, there is some rain, and then it's showers next week...not good but dont right it off completely just yet. I'm just updating the Farmers Weather vid so wil be online soon.

Simon

 

[Chae1]

Its gone! I hate making hay its a lottery. Will have field cleared and fertiliser on tomorrow. Some rain and it will be growing again. Neighbours had hay lying for 2 weeks. I d rather buy it off someone else and let them take risk.