UK harvest reviewed as US stock reports pushes global wheat higher

As the harvest now ends around the UK, we have our final harvest report to round up yields and quality.

For wheat, in our final report yields are forecast close to average at 8.0-8.2t/ha. However, the real issue in the UK lies in variable quality. Specific weights are reported generally lower than normal in the 72-76kg/hl range, whilst protein levels are in a wide range from 10.5%-13.5%.

Given this yield and the area forecasts we can see a wheat production level just in the range of 14.8-15Mt. The provisional Defra production figure for the UK will be released Monday October 11th and discussed at our Grain Market Outlook Conference.

Spring barley harvest is virtually complete with only a handful of fields left in Northern England and Scotland. Farm yields range from 5-10t/ha. Scottish quality has held well with grain nitrogen averaging 1.4% and specific weights of around 62kg/hl. Most Scottish crops were harvested at relatively low moisture levels through September, which may aid cost of drying on-farm given the high energy prices we see.

For oats, spring crop harvest is now largely complete, with yields ranging from 4.4-8.5t/ha on farm. Oats have been going through dryers to clean samples and specific weights have seen a good-sized range from 42-62kg/hl.

With domestic harvests now practically over, attention inevitably turns towards prices and planting. With new-crop values at such historic high-levels for this time of year and old-crop markets well supported and in no mood to fall, it could be argued that time is best spent on making marketing plans for the 2022 harvest, despite 2021’s combines only just being put back in the shed.

US wheat makes gains but maize and soy fall

The USDA Quarterly Stocks report, released yesterday, pushed wheat markets higher as stocks came in below expectations and cuts were made to wheat production in the US.

Wheat stocks at 1st September are estimated at 48.43Mt far below expectations prior to the report; Dow Jones survey had expected 50.54Mt. US wheat production was cut 1.36Mt to 44.76Mt, which again was a minor surprise to markets.

While wheat made gains, the stocks report was bearish news for maize and soybeans. Both stocks estimates were above trade expectations at 31.41Mt (expected 29.71Mt) and 6.97Mt (expected 4.68Mt) respectively.

Ultimately this will cause a short blip in trade, but is not enough of a shock to change the overall sentiment of the global markets.

UK harvest reviewed as US stock reports pushes global wheat higher

For information on price direction make sure to subscribe to Grain Market Daily’s and Market Report from our team.
 
As the harvest now ends around the UK, we have our final harvest report to round up yields and quality.

For wheat, in our final report yields are forecast close to average at 8.0-8.2t/ha. However, the real issue in the UK lies in variable quality. Specific weights are reported generally lower than normal in the 72-76kg/hl range, whilst protein levels are in a wide range from 10.5%-13.5%.

Given this yield and the area forecasts we can see a wheat production level just in the range of 14.8-15Mt. The provisional Defra production figure for the UK will be released Monday October 11th and discussed at our Grain Market Outlook Conference.

Spring barley harvest is virtually complete with only a handful of fields left in Northern England and Scotland. Farm yields range from 5-10t/ha. Scottish quality has held well with grain nitrogen averaging 1.4% and specific weights of around 62kg/hl. Most Scottish crops were harvested at relatively low moisture levels through September, which may aid cost of drying on-farm given the high energy prices we see.

For oats, spring crop harvest is now largely complete, with yields ranging from 4.4-8.5t/ha on farm. Oats have been going through dryers to clean samples and specific weights have seen a good-sized range from 42-62kg/hl.

With domestic harvests now practically over, attention inevitably turns towards prices and planting. With new-crop values at such historic high-levels for this time of year and old-crop markets well supported and in no mood to fall, it could be argued that time is best spent on making marketing plans for the 2022 harvest, despite 2021’s combines only just being put back in the shed.

US wheat makes gains but maize and soy fall

The USDA Quarterly Stocks report, released yesterday, pushed wheat markets higher as stocks came in below expectations and cuts were made to wheat production in the US.

Wheat stocks at 1st September are estimated at 48.43Mt far below expectations prior to the report; Dow Jones survey had expected 50.54Mt. US wheat production was cut 1.36Mt to 44.76Mt, which again was a minor surprise to markets.

While wheat made gains, the stocks report was bearish news for maize and soybeans. Both stocks estimates were above trade expectations at 31.41Mt (expected 29.71Mt) and 6.97Mt (expected 4.68Mt) respectively.

Ultimately this will cause a short blip in trade, but is not enough of a shock to change the overall sentiment of the global markets.

UK harvest reviewed as US stock reports pushes global wheat higher

For information on price direction make sure to subscribe to Grain Market Daily’s and Market Report from our team.

What area forecasts are you using to get a wheat production of 14.8 to 15Mt basis yields 8-8.2t/ha?
 
What area forecasts are you using to get a wheat production of 14.8 to 15Mt basis yields 8-8.2t/ha?
They take our money, but they don't work for us, 14.5Mt is nearer the consensus, who know where reality lies?
Thank you for the responses, we’re always happy to discuss the detail of the articles we publish.

Happy to get in contact anytime, so give me an email ([email protected]) and we can arrange a time to talk, Thanks, David Eudall, Economics & Analysis Director, AHDB
 

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