Uk wheat crop prediction 2020

[warksfarmer]

Winter wheat 2.5-3t/ac
Spring wheat 1.5-2t/ac
Grass I’ll tell you tomorrow when we start but it looks ok but it won’t be anywhere near last years ridiculous 11.7t/acre first cut.

 

[B'o'B]

Been field walking and rouging today. There will be a fair few tonnes of yield potential lost here this week with the temperature rising especially on the thinner soils. Deeper soils holding out remarkably well still, but now beginning to look stressed.

 

[teslacoils]

BG is showing on those wheat fields "lucky" to be planted in September but missing autumn residuals. Tad late for spraying it off now. Silage perhaps?

 

[B'o'B]

BG is showing on those wheat fields "lucky" to be planted in September but missing autumn residuals. Tad late for spraying it off now. Silage perhaps?

BG still not too far gone to chemically rouge with knapsack here even where no pre-em or post-em chemistry applied. If we hadn't been doing it rigorously for years to prevent seed return it would be a different story though. Trouble is you have to keep zero tolerance continually or it's soon got away from you and there is too much to deal with.

 

[teslacoils]

Yeah, the field I drove by today could be chemically rogued......with a 4000lt, 24m wide knapsack.

 

[B'o'B]

Yeah, the field I drove by today could be chemically rogued......with a 4000lt, 24m wide knapsack.

My 20L knapsack is bad enough thanks! And I only half fill It.

 

[MrNoo]

Yeah, the field I drove by today could be chemically rogued......with a 4000lt, 24m wide knapsack.

Fair bit of that going on around here, not mine, my bad fields are fallow

 

[Steevo]

Fair bit of that going on around here, not mine, my bad fields are fallow
View attachment 879380

That's a sorry sight to see. I think you chose well with fallow - first loss best loss and all that.

I always think that the right time to spray BG is before spending on fert and chem in the spring.

At that stage I either I spray it off then with it having cost very little (with the ability to replant a spring crop if I wish) or commit to carry the crop through to harvest and get some revenue for my costs.

This year I have some fields of both - the spring crop following has zero BG so long term gain but may not do well in the short term financially. The wheat with BG still in it will probably pay better today, but I'll likely foot the bill later due to extra seed return.

Spending out and spraying off in May/June seems a road to ruin to me.

 

[teslacoils]

May June spraying off crop is the worst of all worlds. Might as well just bite the bullet and grass it all down - note to all grass pays really badly and none of you should even consider it.

 

[DrWazzock]

Fairly clear of black grass on my late drilled wheat. Reckon the concrete cap has stopped it emerging. Pretty clean all round weed wise, considering no preem or post em till a bit ally max and starane last week to tidy the job up.
The wheat is moving now. I’ll be happy with 5t / ha.

 

[DrWazzock]

Come to think of it we only got 5t/ha from the 2018 wheat harvest. Expenses were higher due to autumn herbicides, but the hot summer spoilt it.

Grass, hmmm. It’s really struggling here. Shepherd has let the sheep have what was shut up for hay now. Peak grass demand for the lambs now. Keep the mill going. Fortunately lots of cheap oats and barley in stock.

 

[MrNoo]

That's a sorry sight to see. I think you chose well with fallow - first loss best loss and all that.

I always think that the right time to spray BG is before spending on fert and chem in the spring.

At that stage I either I spray it off then with it having cost very little (with the ability to replant a spring crop if I wish) or commit to carry the crop through to harvest and get some revenue for my costs.

This year I have some fields of both - the spring crop following has zero BG so long term gain but may not do well in the short term financially. The wheat with BG still in it will probably pay better today, but I'll likely foot the bill later due to extra seed return.

Spending out and spraying off in May/June seems a road to ruin to me.

I completely agree with you, this block is contract farmed although old company is out and this is the new one in. Think it was planted by old Co, the rest of the field is SW or SB and had a pre em and Avadex too......... suspect that will go the same way.
We used to rent that block of land, not at all easy ground, heavy clay and BG was a problem then but nowhere near as bad as it is now. Not Spring cropping land either unfortunately, be interesting to see how the new mob farm it

 

[yellow belly]

When I had patches in osr
I mowed them just after they came into flower
Then dedicated as normal in mid July
The regrown bg was in flower but had not set seed
This virtually eliminated the bg it is easier to fit bits out than spray bits out
I have also cut in mid may then again at harvest And sprayed roundup in September followed by wheat with a stack and avadex
Bg does not set viable seed till a couple of weeks after flowering
it is possible to check this by squeezing the seed between thumb nail and finger dead seeds have nothing in and are hollow

 

[shakerator]

I think <5mmt now after a few drives around

 

[ajd132]

That's a sorry sight to see. I think you chose well with fallow - first loss best loss and all that.

I always think that the right time to spray BG is before spending on fert and chem in the spring.

At that stage I either I spray it off then with it having cost very little (with the ability to replant a spring crop if I wish) or commit to carry the crop through to harvest and get some revenue for my costs.

This year I have some fields of both - the spring crop following has zero BG so long term gain but may not do well in the short term financially. The wheat with BG still in it will probably pay better today, but I'll likely foot the bill later due to extra seed return.

Spending out and spraying off in May/June seems a road to ruin to me.

I sprayed off a 100ha rented block about 3 years ago in February and planted spring barley. I told Dad in October when we were drilling it that it would be a complete waste of time! That was a good lesson.

 

[teslacoils]

I think <5mmt now after a few drives around

Any thoughts on UK barley / oat harvest? Or total cereal output?

 

[Clive]

I’ve gone 5-7 million

I reckon we will be down close to 50% and that’s on a farm that drilled it all and still has it all, many didn’t so we are looking at least at a 50% drop imo

osr sub 750k tonnes ?

I think this post will prove rather optimistic!

wheat 5 million and osr 500k tonnes now i reckon

we are going to be doing sone serious importing

 

[bankrupt]

wheat 5 million and osr 500k tonnes now i reckon

??

 

[yellow belly]

An inch of rain over the whole country in the next 2 weeks could add 2 million tonnes

 

[Widgetone]

I think this post will prove rather optimistic!

wheat 5 million and osr 500k tonnes now i reckon

we are going to be doing sone serious importing

Lucky you have most of crop 19 to sell then!