- Location
- UK
Cereals
Oilseeds
Futures & Options Prices
- After trading at £128/T in early afternoon, the UK wheat prices rally was capped by a rebound in the Sterling which gained about 0.7% & 1.2% against the euro and the US dollar respectively.
- The front-month CBOT wheat contract dipped below the psychological $4/bu mark for the first time since September 2006 on ample supplies and after Japan & South Korea decided to suspend imports of US wheat after unapproved GMO plants were found growing in Washington state.
- The season of the US crop tours has just started and crop conditions reported continue to be satisfactory across the vast majority of the Corn belt whilst the lack of severe heat and widespread 6 to 15 day forecast rain will limit any further stress.
- Following yesterday's tender, Egypt has bought 60KT of Russian wheat at an average price of $177.09. Once again, no French wheat was offered.
- Yesterday, INTL FCStone pegged the 2016 US corn production at 15.146Bbu - a new record if realised - with an estimated yield of 175bu/ac (vs 168 for the USDA).
- China sold only 21,138T of corn at its State reserves auction at an average price of $253.84/T.
- Weekly US Crop progress and conditions [See Chart of the Day]:
- Corn: 76% 'GD/EX' vs 75% expected, unchanged on LW and +6pts from LY;
- Winter Wheat harvested: 89% vs 90% expected, +6% on LW and +3% ahead of the 5-yr average.
- Spring Wheat: 68% 'GD/EX' in line with expectations & unchanged from LW and 2% down vs LY.
Oilseeds
- Once again, too much pressure came from the US Soybean complex as well as the energy markets and OSR prices turned lower mid-afternoon, testing the €356 technical support despite a disappointing UK/EU harvest.
- As weather/crop conditions have continued to improve since mid-July, soybean prices continue to drift lower. Since the peak observed on June 13th, the Nov-16 CBOT soybean contract is down more than 20%!
- INTL FCStone project the 2016 US soybean production at 4.054Bbu - a new record if realised - with an estimated yield of 48.8bu/ac (vs 46.7 for the USDA).
- US exporters reported the sale of 252KT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing season.
- SAFRAS expect Brazil soybean exports to drop 1% to 52.%MlnT in 2016/17 whilst the total production is seen above 103MlnT. In August, the country's soybean, meal and corn exports are expected to halve as operators keep focused on selling corn on the domestic market and as Brazilian soybean competitiveness has eroded due to the weakening of the dollar [Source: Reuters].
- Weekly Soybean condition report:
- 72% 'GD/EX' vs 70% expected, 71% LW & 63% LY;
- 54% setting pods vs 35% LW & 44% on a 5-yr average.
- GBP recovered strongly against the US Dollar today after US data could push the FED to delay raising interest rates (once again).
- After an overnight session recovery, WTI and Brent prices turned lower on ongoing worries of a glut as indicated by the hedge funds positioning which showed that since the end of May they have added 197Mbbl of crude short positions.
- ADM reported a 26% fall in quarterly profit whilst revenue was down 9% to $15.63B.
Futures & Options Prices