UK wheat lower in the aftermath of yesterday's PM Theresa May defeat

CRM AgriCommodities

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Arable Farmer
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UK
Cereals
In contrast to yesterday's historic Commons defeat over her Brexit deal, PM Theresa May wins today's confidence vote as expected.

The heightened risk of a 'No Deal' scenario pushed LIFFE feed wheat lower for a 6th consecutive session on the May 2019 contract, its longest losing streak. The 200-day moving average of £174/T is now being tested.

A dearth of fresh news resulted in modest moves on both sides of the Atlantic for grains with Mar-19 Matif wheat trading in a narrow 1€ range with the 203€ technical support continuing to hold.

CBOT wheat spent the day unconvincingly in green territory with corn also bouncing back on South American weather concerns.

The Russian AgMinistry pegged the 2019 grain crop above 114MMT ie in line with this year's 112.8MMT and insisted that export restrictions are not being discussed (Source: Reuters).

Global demand for corn remains intact with South Asian countries continuing to buy large volumes.

According to Euronext data, speculators cut their net long position by more than 2,800 contracts to 33,883 contracts on Matif wheat in the week ending Jan 11th.

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Oilseeds
May-19 Matif rapeseed broke through its 370€ technical resistance level and settled at a near 6-week high although fresh news were limited.

Céleres is the latest consultancy firm to lower its 2018/19 Brazil soybean production forecast due to persistent dryness in key producing states. The Minas Gerais-based company pegged the country's soy crop at 117.2MMT ie -4% on its November estimate (Source: Reuters) and after a potential all-time high production of 130MMT was mentioned at the beginning of December.

A 2-sided session for CBOT soybeans and its by-products with the US government shutdown entering its 26th day. Mar-19 CBOT soybeans continue to hover over the c$890/bu technical support.

According to Euronext data, speculators barely cut their net long position on Matif rapeseed in the week ending Jan 11th; -44 lots week-on-week to 9,900 contracts.
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Futures & Options Pricing
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