Ukraine seen heading for record grain harvest in 2014 of 63mln t according to the State weather fore

[Donkey Oaty]

I copied this from the latest Gleadell Market report where it is one of the "bear" factors affecting the market. It sounds like propaganda to me.

 

[crazy_bull]

I thought that, however, I would have thought it was counter productive for the country to talk their yields up, surely they would be better to put propaganda out to increase grain prices and hence the income stream into their country?

C B

 

[shakerator]

I thought that, however, I would have thought it was counter productive for the country to talk their yields up, surely they would be better to put propaganda out to increase grain prices and hence the income stream into their country?

C B

Whose country...........!

 

[nickf]

I thought that, however, I would have thought it was counter productive for the country to talk their yields up, surely they would be better to put propaganda out to increase grain prices and hence the income stream into their country?

C B

Or talk up yields knowing they have a poor harvest, world prices drop as a result and they then cover their shortfall in the market at the reduced price. Once market realises that the Ukraine harvest is poor the world price rises but Ukraine has covered their needs already. This is a classic scenario. Only really works when the country knows that the harvest is so bad they can't supply enough for their domestic demand internally.

 

[crazy_bull]

Whose country...........!

The statement was released by the Ukrainian government or by a state run service.

 

[shakerator]

Build storage for multiple harvests or buy options would be my advice .....

Whichever more tax efficient!!

 

[crazy_bull]

Or talk up yields knowing they have a poor harvest, world prices drop as a result and they then cover their shortfall in the market at the reduced price. Once market realises that the Ukraine harvest is poor the world price rises but Ukraine has covered their needs already. This is a classic scenario. Only really works when the country knows that the harvest is so bad they can't supply enough for their domestic demand internally.

It would be grim harvest if they come short enough to not meet domestic demand, current thinking by most independent forecasters is an exportable surplus of circa 28-32 million ton, almost 50% of their forecast production. But of course it could all be big cover up by the Russians/USA (insert who you like) etc to trick the grain market.

C B

 

[nickf]

It would be grim harvest if they come short enough to not meet domestic demand, current thinking by most independent forecasters is an exportable surplus of circa 28-32 million ton, almost 50% of their forecast production. But of course it could all be big cover up by the Russians/USA (insert who you like) etc to trick the grain market.

C B

Agreed, highly unlikely to expect such a poor harvest that they can't supply domestic demand.

 

[Brisel]

It would be grim harvest if they come short enough to not meet domestic demand, current thinking by most independent forecasters is an exportable surplus of circa 28-32 million ton, almost 50% of their forecast production. But of course it could all be big cover up by the Russians/USA (insert who you like) etc to trick the grain market.

C B

Do you really think that Putin imagines that he can pull off another Great Grain Robbery like his communist predecessors did in the 1970s? Information is much too good these days IMO. There's too many short positions in USA to suggest any such trickery by the market players. Perhaps Putin is planning on annexing Ukraine grain stores...

 

[crazy_bull]

Do you really think that Putin imagines that he can pull off another Great Grain Robbery like his communist predecessors did in the 1970s? Information is much too good these days IMO. There's too many short positions in USA to suggest any such trickery by the market players. Perhaps Putin is planning on annexing Ukraine grain stores...

Not at all, I forgot to put the smileys after my quote

 

[Lincsman]

We were heading for record harvest in 2012 at this time of year.

 

[warksfarmer]

We were heading for record harvest in 2012 at this time of year.

Exactly a lot can happen between now and harvest.

 

[Donkey Oaty]

.....Or maybe the weather forecasters are basing this prediction solely on the weather pattern and have no idea about crops on the ground and whether farmers could access seed/fert/sprays etc?

 

[Brisel]

Not at all, I forgot to put the smileys after my quote

No worries. It sometimes amuses me to see your MD opinion on the market in his Focus update that comes with Farmers Weekly occasionally - the market frequently dos the opposite...