US weather watching continues

Recent dry weather seems to have boosted US 2021/22 harvest progress as explained above. However, for new crop US winter wheat, dry weather may remain a watch point for new season supply.

According to the USDA, new crop winter wheat plantings were 94% complete as at 14 November. This is up 3pp from the previous week, behind last year by 2pp, but directly in line with the 5-year average (2016-2020). Of the total, 81% had emerged as at 14 November, behind last year by 3pp and the 5-year average by 2pp.

Crop condition of the 2022/23 US winter wheat crop increased 1pp from the previous week, to 46% rated ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ to 14 November. This was a surprise to trade who expected no change (Refinitiv) but brings crop condition scoring directly in line with last year.

This is important with US conditions still very dry.

The latest drought monitor report shows dry conditions or drought continuing from last year.

Figure 1. Drought map US 16 11 2021


Importantly, dry conditions cover many key winter wheat producing states.

Figure 2. Winter wheat states US 16 11 2021


It is still too early to predict what the 2022/23 crop may look like, though dryness certainly remains a watchpoint for US wheat production next season.

Despite next season seeming far away, the market is looking for large crops to relieve low stocks after the tight supply and demand seen this season. As we move through this season, new crop news will increasingly impact old and new crop prices.

Why is US wheat so important to UK prices? This season we saw hot and dry weather in the US, Canada and Russia reduce global wheat availability. As a result of tight global supply and demand, we have seen significant support to UK feed wheat futures and ex-farm prices.

With dry conditions persisting in the Black Sea region and Canada, as well as the US, new crop weather will be a key watchpoint as we progress through the season.


US weather watching continues


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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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