US weather watching

The outlook for the 2022/23 maize supply looks to depend on how much is planted in Ukraine and the US, as two key global exporters. Plantings are due to begin this month (April) for both countries, and so the market will eagerly await insight into planting progress.

Rain in the eastern maize belt​

Rain is forecasted to fall across the eastern US maize belt in the next few weeks.

Figure showing rain due in US eastern maize belt

As at 10 April, 2% of the US maize area had been planted according to the USDA crop progress report out last night. This is 2 percentage points (pp) behind this time last year and 1pp behind the 5-year average (2017 to 2021).

Why does rain matter? Well, April brings the start of maize planting, and rain could delay this. Not something to worry about now, but something to watch. This is especially important, given the US prospective planting survey results show the maize area will be smaller this year, in favour of area for soyabeans. All crop that goes in the ground will be important to global maize availability.

On the flip side, US southern Great Plains winter wheat could do with rain to ease the drought conditions. Therefore, where the rain falls across the US will be key in the next few weeks.

Why is this important?​

The global grain supply and demand balance remains tight heading into next season, especially with the war ongoing between Russia and Ukraine.

In Ukraine, maize is expected to lose out to other crops like buckwheat, barley, oats, peas, and millet this year. This is down to a large proportion of the typical maize area being in active hostile regions, with the crop needing a significant amount of fuel and inputs (UkrAgroConsult). Maize production in Ukraine for 2022/23 has been forecast at 19.0Mt by UkrAgroConsult. If realised, this will be the smallest output since 2012.

With a cut in Ukrainian production, US maize plantings will be key to global maize availability next season. If we see strong maize prices because of tight supply, it will likely provide a floor for the wider global feed grain complex.

Today's Grain Market Daily on the AHDB website - US weather watching

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Man fined £300 for bonfire-related waste offences

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Written by William Kellett from Agriland

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A man has pleaded guilty at Newtownards Magistrates’ Court to waste offences relating to a bonfire next to the electrical sub-station on the Circular Road in Newtownards, Co. Down.

Gareth Gill (51) of Abbot’s Walk, Newtownards pleaded guilty to two charges under the Waste and Contaminated Land (Northern Ireland) Order 1997, for which he was fined £150 each and ordered to pay a £15 offender’s levy

On June 25, 2018, PSNI officers went to Gill’s yard, where they found a large amount of waste consisting of scrap wood, pallets, carpet and underlay.

Discussion with Northern Ireland Environment Agency (NIEA) officers confirmed the site...
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