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Cereals
Oilseeds
Chart of the day#2: South America production forecast
Futures & Options prices
Cereals
- Traders focus on Argentine story in today's USDA report, as the US agency revised Argentine corn crop 8% lower from 39MMT to 36MMT amid an ongoing drought.
- USDA raised global wheat stocks to 268.9MT above the trade estimate of 265.63MT, although wheat prices did not react due to higher corn values and concerns re the 2018 US winter wheat crop.
- Lower EU wheat exports (-1MMT to 25MMT) and resulting higher stocks were offset by an increase in Russian exports (+1.5MMT to 37.5MMT) and resulting lower stocks there.
- Global corn stocks are seen at 199.17MT, in line with analysts estimates for the 2017/18 marketing season. This is however a near 4MMT reduction from a month ago and a hefty 33MT fall on the last season.
- US corn exports were increased by 4.5MT due to uncompetitive South American prices.
- CONAB reduced its 2017/18 Brazil corn production forecast by 0.7MMT to 87.28MMT due to a reduced planted area/yield estimate for the 2nd crop vs 94.5MMT for the USDA.
- UK wheat prices continued to trend higher today in line with recent gains in World prices as EU prices received support from a weaker Euro - 0.8% lower.
- No weekly update re the EU exports/imports from the European Commission due to 'a technical issue'.
Oilseeds
- USDA lowered Argentine soybean production by 13% or 7MMT on their last report to 47MT which was below trade estimates of 48.36MT and 10.8MMT down on last year. However, the Argie soybean stocks were 'only' down 3.8MMT mostly due to higher imports and lower exports.
- Brazil's soy crop was raised to 113MT (+1MMT from last month) with world ending stocks falling to 94.4MT from 98.14MT in last month's report.
- OSR prices in the EU found support amidst a weaker Euro.
Futures & Options prices