- Location
- UK
Cereals
- The USDA surprised the market today releasing estimates well above those of most market participants.
- World wheat production was trimmed slightly to 737.8MT (-1.7), which is the same as the first estimate released in May. Global wheat stocks have however increased from 258.3 in May to 260.6MT this month although falling from June's estimate of 261.2MT.
- According to the USDA, Australia is expected to harvest 23.5MT of wheat this year, well down from a phenomenal 35MT crop last year.
- Wheat traded lower after the report although remains underpinned by dryness across the Northern Plains with the USDA lowering the US spring wheat crop to a 15-year low.
- France AgriMer raised slightly French wheat ending stock to 2.8MT for the 16/17 season although below 3.3MT seen in 2015/16.
Oilseeds
- Oilseeds came under pressure too following the USDA report with both 16/17 and 17/18 global stock estimates seen at over 1MT above the June figures and the trade estimate for July. World soybean stocks are seen at 93.53MT for 17/18 compared to 94.78MT in 16/17.
- USDA raised 2016/17 EU OSR imports to 4.4MT whilst the 2017/18 EU rapeseed harvest is seen at 21.15MT.
- Global palm oil production was raised slightly on last month.
Chart of the Day #1: World stocks of corn, wheat and soy
Chart of the Day #2: World production of corn wheat and soy
Chart of the Day #3: Monthly change in wheat production and stocks
Futures & Options prices
