Very interesting eblex report on the sheep industry

[andybk]

not sure if this has been posted
Bit of bedtime reading for some on the sheep industy from data in 2012
interesting the number of Texel sired ewes being used
and anyone care to make a bet on what will happen in the next 20 years or so ?

conclusion of report

Given the limitations of such a survey methodology and the level of accuracy achievable under such circumstances, the story of the British sheep breeding sector
told here is a remarkable one.
If you asked the large urban population in Britain what has happened to sheep in Britain over the last 40 years you would probably be met with blank stares and a veritable lack of an answer.
Yet this report, and its four predecessors, paints a picture of a dynamic and ever-changing industry reacting to political and economic pressures in a way unthinkable to those who just see sheep as woolly animals that keep grass down in the countryside.
If we compare the industry in 1971 with that in 2012, what sweeping changes have taken place.
Breeds that were non-existent or rare in Britain now dominate our industry. The plethora of local breeds developed after years of isolated farming in our countryside have now been swamped by breeds from abroad, new breeds made up from mixtures of many breeds or even our own breeds returned to us after years of breeding in strange climates.
Decreased reliance on the pedigree sector is possibly driven by a combination of new
technologies, hard factual information and the realisation that in order to stay in business it is necessary to react to the market.
Breeds once thought preeminent have faded, markets once never dreamed of are now a reality and breeding methods once the realm of pig and poultry companies are becoming used more widely.
Looking back at the concluding remarks of the 2003 survey is a sobering lesson in the stupidity of predicting the future. It said ‘many traditional breeds which do not suit current market requirements are moving towards becoming rare breeds. A programme needs to be put in place to maintain these genetic resources for future generations.
Shortwool and Longwool ewe breeds are most at risk in this context and are likely to
dissappear in the near future.’ Of course this is largely true but did not reckon on the qualities of the Lleyn breed and breeders’ ability to assess and use a useful breed.
Whatever happens to the sheep industry over the next few years, there is no doubt that breeds and their qualities, combined with the sheep breeder’s never-ending quest for the right combination of characteristics, will fuel an ever-changing breeding structure.
Maybe the only thing that might be said with any certainty is that if the 2050 Sheep
Breed Survey looks back to 2012 then it will be comparing two very different industries.


http://www.eblex.org.uk/wp/wp-conte...of-the-British-sheep-industry-2012-180914.pdf

 

[Walterp]

Three trends:

1. The Lleyn (now the largest non-hill breed in Britain) will become more popular;

2. No one will remember what a Border Leicester was for (2,800,000 BFL sired ewes, 180,000 halfbreds);

3. Texel terminals will predominate.

 

[andybk]

I think it is a positive report , and shows tradition is now no longer a driving force with farmers happy to try new breeds and techniques ,
I hope future generations will look back at the way we take pure breeds forward or backward (in the show / sale ring ) and laugh ,
perhaps we should take note of how continental farmers improved their own breeds to such a huge degree and the way we f*#d ours up over the same period

 

[Qman]

So they reckon that "Texel terminals will predominate" do they.

It's nice to see EBLEX are not waisting our compulsory levy money on silly reports.

I can't see Texels getting popular, someone told me in market in 1987 that they were one rib short. They'll never catch on.

 

[neilo]

Three trends:

1. The Lleyn (now the largest non-hill breed in Britain) will become more popular;

2. No one will remember what a Border Leicester was for (2,800,000 BFL sired ewes, 180,000 halfbreds);

3. Texel terminals will predominate.

Of course, there was a time, not long ago, when the Suffolk breed predominated. Well over half of all UK lambs were sired by that breed, and a large number of crossbred daughters were being retained.

I predict that we, the UK sheep industry, will continue to stuff up the mainstream breeds in the UK, by chasing the same ideal of big frames and style. As with Suffolks, a few stalwarts will mutter into their beards and continue doing what they believe is right and ignore fashion, whilst the majority chase the ribbons and the headlines prices.

The rare breeds will continue to just potter along in low numbers, supported by increasing numbers of 'lifestyle' farmers, the big charity landowners that only have them as mowers, and a few pennies from the various environmental schemes.

The Lleyn will either have lost favour again, or continued it's evolution by the introgression of yet more genes, whilst still calling itself a pedigree of course.

By 2050, at least one new breed will have been imported and will be so revolutionary that it will dominate the industry. With the world getting smaller, that could now come from anywhere, not just across the channel.

 

[andybk]

Of course, there was a time, not long ago, when the Suffolk breed predominated. Well over half of all UK lambs were sired by that breed, and a large number of crossbred daughters were being retained.

I predict that we, the UK sheep industry, will continue to stuff up the mainstream breeds in the UK, by chasing the same ideal of big frames and style. As with Suffolks, a few stalwarts will mutter into their beards and continue doing what they believe is right and ignore fashion, whilst the majority chase the ribbons and the headlines prices.

The rare breeds will continue to just potter along in low numbers, supported by increasing numbers of 'lifestyle' farmers, the big charity landowners that only have them as mowers, and a few pennies from the various environmental schemes.

The Lleyn will either have lost favour again, or continued it's evolution by the introgression of yet more genes, whilst still calling itself a pedigree of course.

By 2050, at least one new breed will have been imported and will be so revolutionary that it will dominate the industry. With the world getting smaller, that could now come from anywhere, not just across the channel.

good post neil

 

[edn]

I wonder if the current trend and interest in various composites will continue and whether any more will be developed/imported. I'm not sure whether its as much a fashion thing as bonny heads in the Mules.

 

[Tim W]

If future sheep farmers/breeders have any sense (debate to be had at another time) they will forget about 'breeds' and 'types' and will be looking to buy in tailored genetics

They will not say -' I want a Lleyn ewe or a texel ram' ---they will instead order their replacement sheep from ;

1) A tested high health status source to match their own requirements
2) With the genetic ability to perform under their specific farm conditions
3) With disease tolerance/resistance for the prevalent diseases in their area
4) The rams provided will again be designed to produce a fat lamb at the correct time at the correct weight/grade

All these above traits will be predicted with sufficient accuracy by large forward breeding companies that invest heavily in proven selection via genomics/progeny testing and constant health scrutiny ---this is of course already happening but in future these companies will take a large %age of the breeding sales within the UK

(Taken from the prophecy's of TW, Book 3 chapter 2 verse 11 )

 

[$Sheep]

In my opinion I think that breeds will still exist and the more successful will evolve as they have always to fit the requirements of the day and be forward looking enough to assess what the next stage of evolution is required.

It will be paramount that the ‘pedigree’ breeders remain closely attuned to the requirements of a commercial farm that are in turn producing / supplying product to end consumers.

As always the sheep must be fit-for-purpose, functional and matched to the environment. There will be increasing focus towards easier-care and less reliance upon intervention. There will remain an intense interest in ‘type’ as most farmers want to recognise and be known for the sheep they farm, there is a requirement for uniformity, and often the ‘type’ is often linked to specific trait for example wool or no wool.

I think that there is a need for two distinctive breeds, maternal and terminal.

I cannot comment about all the different UK sheep breeds as this is outside my area of expertise or knowledge. I would however say that the sheep breeds that are successful today need to examine why they are currently favoured and not sit on their laurels if they are to continue so. Those that have lost former prominence could again arise and re-position themselves by adopting a strategy of improvement that focuses upon traits of value rather than fancy.

I do however think the days of small ‘pedigree’ breeders are numbered because genetic improvement requires some scale in size to generate enough selection pressure to move ahead forward at a fast enough pace and be able to absorb some of the increasing costs of advanced breeding techniques. To counter this scenario a small ‘pedigree’ breeder could link up closely with others like-minded and mimic some of the corporate breeder mannerisms. Unlike the poultry and pig industries where super large corporate breeders now dominate who operate in controlled housed environments the sheep industry by virtue of operating outdoors exposed to the vagaries of climate etcetera the family sized operation will outperform the corporate because the individual farmers with their livelihood at stake have a greater willingness to work and toil 24/7 to make it happen.