Vlad is moving troops home - or so he says...

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
So, either he's realised how much trouble he's in and is being sensible, or he's diverting attention...

Or the whole 'crisis' has been created by the USA for its own nefarious reasons......at some point you have to stop taking what the MSM tell you as gospel. I'm not saying that Putin doesn't want to invade the Ukraine (more likely the Donbas region), or that he won't, what I'm saying is that there is no way you and I can know whats going on by listening to the usual suspects. We get told what they want us to hear, in order to make us think a certain way.

Its weird, people on here are regularly (and rightly) up in arms about how the BBC et al propagandise against conventional farming and in favour of veganism and organics etc, yet when exactly the same media outlets demonise Russia and Putin they lap it up as gospel truth. Talk about cognitive dissonance.......
 

Danllan

Member
Location
Sir Gar / Carms
Or the whole 'crisis' has been created by the USA for its own nefarious reasons......at some point you have to stop taking what the MSM tell you as gospel. I'm not saying that Putin doesn't want to invade the Ukraine (more likely the Donbas region), or that he won't, what I'm saying is that there is no way you and I can know whats going on by listening to the usual suspects. We get told what they want us to hear, in order to make us think a certain way.

Its weird, people on here are regularly (and rightly) up in arms about how the BBC et al propagandise against conventional farming and in favour of veganism and organics etc, yet when exactly the same media outlets demonise Russia and Putin they lap it up as gospel truth. Talk about cognitive dissonance.......
I look at a wide range of media, and I follow blogs /vlogs by people on the ground - my Russian is pretty dire, not having ever used it properly and not learnt since school, but I can just about follow those from inside Russia.

I don't believe the BBC on a lot of things, but when / if their reporting coincides with that of others who I deem can be trusted - commercial or private - it would be churlish not to recognise it as factual.
 

Muck Spreader

Member
Livestock Farmer
Location
Limousin
Evidence?
Lots as usual, how reliable anyone's guess.




From the heavily redacted Muller report on Russian inference:-
"According to Malloch, Corsi asked him to put Corsi in touch with Assange, whom Corsi wished to interview. Malloch recalled that Corsi also suggested that individuals in the “orbit” of U.K. politician Nigel Farage might be able to contact Assange and asked if Malloch knew them. Malloch told Corsi that he would think about the request but made no actual attempt to connect Corsi with Assange"
 

Hindsight

Member
Location
Lincolnshire
If you can get a hold of yesterdays comment section in The Times written by William Hague,its well worth reading and puts a different take on things.Its hard to argue against much of what he has written. Have you read this @Danllan ?
No, please give us an abstract...

WILLIAM HAGUE

How the Ukraine crisis plays out in Putin’s head​


Russia’s leader has long been determined to rebuild the old empire and the West is so weak that now is the time to strike​

William Hague

Monday February 14 2022, 4.00pm, The Times
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Since I wrote last month about my encounters with Vladimir Putin, many people have asked me for reassurance about what he will do: that surely, he is rational, that he understands the cost — in Russian lives and severe sanctions — of starting a war. Yes, he is rational. But this is what he may be thinking:

No one should be surprised. I wrote everything down in July last year for the whole world to read. Why do they think I wrote a 5,000-word essay titled On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians — that I am becoming an academic or training in journalism? It is what I think about every waking hour, and I spelt it out: “Russians and Ukrainians are one people — a single whole.” The situation in Ukraine today, I argued “involves a forced change of identity” comparable to “the use of weapons of mass destruction against us”.


Historians might dispute my view that Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians are all descendants of Ancient Rus, back in the 10th century. But these people can only write about history; I am about to make history. The Bolsheviks robbed Russia when they handed Crimea to Ukraine. I have already corrected that. Now I have the chance to complete the task of forging one people.
Why now? I could not do it earlier. I need the West in retreat, and China watching my back. Both have now obliged. And I cannot leave it until later. I am nearly 70, and I am not embarking on this at 80. Any successor — although I’m not choosing one for a long time — will lack my ability to outmanoeuvre the West.
Besides, the Ukrainians are getting more and more ambitious about “freedom”. And those bungling fools who have run Belarus and Kazakhstan have been losing control — taking over Ukraine will show them all who is the boss. The only question has been how to do it.

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I can give the order any day now, and then it is about 48 hours to the action. I keep reading that we will attack them on three sides, but of course there is a fourth side — inside. The gangs inside Ukraine will be invited to cause havoc, in the same way they helped us in Odessa in 2014.
In the West, they have not understood how organised crime can be an extension of the state, but we have perfected that already with cyberattacks. And my agents will visit the Ukrainian oligarchs and make clear the choice they face. When they have to choose between billions of dollars in contracts or liquidation they are usually, let us say, impressionable.
The Ukrainians can be brave and there is a risk that they will fight well. Within the first hours, therefore, they will be isolated by air, land and sea. All communications will be down, except to hear that their leaders have fled, their soldiers are surrendering and the world has abandoned them. Towns that hold out will have no food or power. Let us see how long people resist with no heating in the winter and no hope of victory or rescue. So sad, when their side will have started it.
The British and the Americans have been highly irritating with their release of intelligence on the pretexts we might have for an invasion. But be in no doubt, it will be Ukrainians who will fire first, even if they are already dead at the time.

SPONSORED​



I am still, for a few more hours, open to negotiation. But that has to mean the total neutralisation of Ukraine so that it can be re-absorbed more gradually.
The visitors to Moscow from western capitals have had a big problem — if they stick with the Americans, we ask them why they bothered coming. Sergei Lavrov is good at that. But if they discuss ideas of their own, like Macron, they divide the West. It is a problem with democracy that the leaders have to look like they are achieving something even when they’re not. I prefer to hold still while I’m actually doing something. It is so much more intimidating.
And then there will be the trial of strength. The West will be stunned by the speed and scale of the military action, but they will react with outrage, sanctions and the freezing of relations. But we have moved most of our assets, and when the fuss is over the map of the world will have changed.
The UN will do nothing. Ukraine will be returned to “partnership with Russia”, as I delicately put it in my essay. It will take time to turn Ukrainians back into Russians, but we have been doing that for a thousand years and we are getting very good at it.

ADVERTISEMENT​


How long will the West hold together? It will be more a crisis for them than for me. No one can freeze out Russia. There is no way of pursuing nuclear arms control without us, or passing any UN resolutions, or getting enough gas. The EU is only as strong as its weakest links; why does anyone think I have spent so much attention on the Hungarians and others? Western Europeans are dependent for defence on America, for energy on Russia and for trade on China, while fantasising about “autonomy”. They think power comes from being interdependent but setting the rules for everyone. I think it comes from making others dependent and following my own rules. They think like traders; I think like an intelligence officer.
Then there are the Americans. Trump will soon be back in the game, confusing them again. He will want deals with Russia. Their unity will not hold. They read hundreds of millions of items on social media that make them hate each other, many of which were written in Russia. Sometimes I have to laugh. What is the point of physical strength if you leave your mind open to hostile influence? But that’s my KGB training again.
This conquest will be the beginning of the post-western order. Ukrainians will join Syrians and Afghans on the list of people the West has abandoned and betrayed. Their credibility will be at an end. And if you are in Georgia, Moldova, the Balkans or the Middle East, you are going to think twice before defying Uncle Vladimir.
This is my best guess at Putin’s rationality — devoid of concern for loss of life, human rights and the peaceful settlement of disputes, but that is consistent with his record. The visit of the German chancellor to Moscow may be the last chance to persuade Putin that the West is stronger than he thinks.
Whatever happens, we will have to focus on how to protect democracy inside and out, in a world where social media, crime, corruption, cyberspace and new alliances are being weaponised against it.




Global politics
Ukraine
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Location
southwest
As someone said Truth is the first casualty of war.

We, the public, don't know which side is building up, moving or withdrawing troops, we only know what our glorious leaders tell us.

It's only a few years since Blair, Bush MI5 and the CIA were telling everyone they had absolute proof that Irag could launch Weapons of Mass Destruction against the West within 45 minutes.

And what was found after the West invaded? Absolutely f uck all!

I'd sooner trust a machinery dealer than a politician
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
My own experience of working on large projects with US, French, British and Iranian consortia left me very disillusioned with the US and French. Ourselves and the Iranians acted in good faith but the US and French let the whole project down badly, taking the cash but not delivering their part of the goods. It hardly surprises me that trust is hard to build when the US or Western Europe is involved. They double crossed ourselves and the Iranians in a bigger way than the Russians had ever done previously. It was a real embarrassment for me being let down by partners in this way.
Sitting in a meeting with the Iranian minister of oil and gas trying to explain why he isn’t going to be pumping gas into Turkey on time is an experience that’s etched in my mind. The US and French partners wouldn’t even attend the meeting, leaving us to take the flak. I have tried my best to deliver on engineering projects but we were badly let down. Thankfully the Iranians could see that.
So I really don’t go for this we are perfect, they are all evil propaganda.
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
When it comes down to it Ukraine will be “owned” by either the EU/US or the Russians. Independence is theoretical when you’ve accepted a loan of 5 billion Euros from the EU.
Not saying Vlad isn’t a gangster. He is. But I think folk are overdoing the sweetness and light of the West.
Can’t seeing this being over without a bit more compromise from both sides. Geographically Ukraine is a major incursion into Greater Russia. You just can’t get away from that and it was a fairly seemless part of the USSR not so long ago. You just can’t get away from that.
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
Best way would be to stop insisting Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO with the condition that Russia pulls back from the border. Ukraine becomes a neutral buffer.
Break that good compromise and we will thrash you like you’ve never been thrashed before.
Everybody goes home thinking they are a winner. Normal service is resumed.
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
I don’t really see why Ukraine has to actually “join” NATO to be protected by NATO.
NATO can protect whoever it likes. This might be splitting hairs but would offer a way out for both sides.
Ukraine could have “associate” membership without being “occupied” by NATO, so we don’t have the obvious provocation of rolling NATO tanks deep into greater Russia or the old USSR.
 

BrianV

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Dartmoor
WILLIAM HAGUE

How the Ukraine crisis plays out in Putin’s head​


Russia’s leader has long been determined to rebuild the old empire and the West is so weak that now is the time to strike​

William Hague

Monday February 14 2022, 4.00pm, The Times
Share
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-ukraine-crisis-plays-out-in-putins-head-l79vms55j
Since I wrote last month about my encounters with Vladimir Putin, many people have asked me for reassurance about what he will do: that surely, he is rational, that he understands the cost — in Russian lives and severe sanctions — of starting a war. Yes, he is rational. But this is what he may be thinking:

No one should be surprised. I wrote everything down in July last year for the whole world to read. Why do they think I wrote a 5,000-word essay titled On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians — that I am becoming an academic or training in journalism? It is what I think about every waking hour, and I spelt it out: “Russians and Ukrainians are one people — a single whole.” The situation in Ukraine today, I argued “involves a forced change of identity” comparable to “the use of weapons of mass destruction against us”.


Historians might dispute my view that Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians are all descendants of Ancient Rus, back in the 10th century. But these people can only write about history; I am about to make history. The Bolsheviks robbed Russia when they handed Crimea to Ukraine. I have already corrected that. Now I have the chance to complete the task of forging one people.
Why now? I could not do it earlier. I need the West in retreat, and China watching my back. Both have now obliged. And I cannot leave it until later. I am nearly 70, and I am not embarking on this at 80. Any successor — although I’m not choosing one for a long time — will lack my ability to outmanoeuvre the West.
Besides, the Ukrainians are getting more and more ambitious about “freedom”. And those bungling fools who have run Belarus and Kazakhstan have been losing control — taking over Ukraine will show them all who is the boss. The only question has been how to do it.

ADVERTISEMENT​


I can give the order any day now, and then it is about 48 hours to the action. I keep reading that we will attack them on three sides, but of course there is a fourth side — inside. The gangs inside Ukraine will be invited to cause havoc, in the same way they helped us in Odessa in 2014.
In the West, they have not understood how organised crime can be an extension of the state, but we have perfected that already with cyberattacks. And my agents will visit the Ukrainian oligarchs and make clear the choice they face. When they have to choose between billions of dollars in contracts or liquidation they are usually, let us say, impressionable.
The Ukrainians can be brave and there is a risk that they will fight well. Within the first hours, therefore, they will be isolated by air, land and sea. All communications will be down, except to hear that their leaders have fled, their soldiers are surrendering and the world has abandoned them. Towns that hold out will have no food or power. Let us see how long people resist with no heating in the winter and no hope of victory or rescue. So sad, when their side will have started it.
The British and the Americans have been highly irritating with their release of intelligence on the pretexts we might have for an invasion. But be in no doubt, it will be Ukrainians who will fire first, even if they are already dead at the time.

SPONSORED​



I am still, for a few more hours, open to negotiation. But that has to mean the total neutralisation of Ukraine so that it can be re-absorbed more gradually.
The visitors to Moscow from western capitals have had a big problem — if they stick with the Americans, we ask them why they bothered coming. Sergei Lavrov is good at that. But if they discuss ideas of their own, like Macron, they divide the West. It is a problem with democracy that the leaders have to look like they are achieving something even when they’re not. I prefer to hold still while I’m actually doing something. It is so much more intimidating.
And then there will be the trial of strength. The West will be stunned by the speed and scale of the military action, but they will react with outrage, sanctions and the freezing of relations. But we have moved most of our assets, and when the fuss is over the map of the world will have changed.
The UN will do nothing. Ukraine will be returned to “partnership with Russia”, as I delicately put it in my essay. It will take time to turn Ukrainians back into Russians, but we have been doing that for a thousand years and we are getting very good at it.

ADVERTISEMENT​


How long will the West hold together? It will be more a crisis for them than for me. No one can freeze out Russia. There is no way of pursuing nuclear arms control without us, or passing any UN resolutions, or getting enough gas. The EU is only as strong as its weakest links; why does anyone think I have spent so much attention on the Hungarians and others? Western Europeans are dependent for defence on America, for energy on Russia and for trade on China, while fantasising about “autonomy”. They think power comes from being interdependent but setting the rules for everyone. I think it comes from making others dependent and following my own rules. They think like traders; I think like an intelligence officer.
Then there are the Americans. Trump will soon be back in the game, confusing them again. He will want deals with Russia. Their unity will not hold. They read hundreds of millions of items on social media that make them hate each other, many of which were written in Russia. Sometimes I have to laugh. What is the point of physical strength if you leave your mind open to hostile influence? But that’s my KGB training again.
This conquest will be the beginning of the post-western order. Ukrainians will join Syrians and Afghans on the list of people the West has abandoned and betrayed. Their credibility will be at an end. And if you are in Georgia, Moldova, the Balkans or the Middle East, you are going to think twice before defying Uncle Vladimir.
This is my best guess at Putin’s rationality — devoid of concern for loss of life, human rights and the peaceful settlement of disputes, but that is consistent with his record. The visit of the German chancellor to Moscow may be the last chance to persuade Putin that the West is stronger than he thinks.
Whatever happens, we will have to focus on how to protect democracy inside and out, in a world where social media, crime, corruption, cyberspace and new alliances are being weaponised against it.




Global politics
Ukraine
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Fiction rather than reality, we are supposed to believe Putin gives the West months of notice of his intension to invade, this then gets him into a war directly against his biggest foreign exchange customers that are pretty much keeping his country afloat.
At the same time we are supposed to believe the West will stand up to any invasion & come to Ukraine's aid whilst still at the same time saying please Mr Putin don't turn off our gas & oil supply whilst we fight as we can't manage without it.
Let's get real it's a bluffing game in negotiations, the worrying thing is that our's & the US's intelligence services seem no better now than they did before Iraq, or is it once again a case of politicians blindly ignoring any advice that they don't want to hear!
 

Danllan

Member
Location
Sir Gar / Carms
My own experience of working on large projects with US, French, British and Iranian consortia left me very disillusioned with the US and French. Ourselves and the Iranians acted in good faith but the US and French let the whole project down badly, taking the cash but not delivering their part of the goods. It hardly surprises me that trust is hard to build when the US or Western Europe is involved. They double crossed ourselves and the Iranians in a bigger way than the Russians had ever done previously. It was a real embarrassment for me being let down by partners in this way.
Sitting in a meeting with the Iranian minister of oil and gas trying to explain why he isn’t going to be pumping gas into Turkey on time is an experience that’s etched in my mind. The US and French partners wouldn’t even attend the meeting, leaving us to take the flak. I have tried my best to deliver on engineering projects but we were badly let down. Thankfully the Iranians could see that.
So I really don’t go for this we are perfect, they are all evil propaganda.
Interesting, I have also found Iranians, individuals and businesses, to be very pleasant and straightforward - that doesn't mean for a moment that I think their 'government' anything of the sort.

Better not let some know your experience of the French, they'll tell you it's the font of all goodness...
 

Danllan

Member
Location
Sir Gar / Carms
As for the rest of the above, what about what the Ukrainians want? I know there are some on here who think - or claim to think - that having unelected 'leaders' is a good thing; but is there really anyone on here who would seriously wish to see the their vote taken away from them? I doubt it but, if so, they are a lost cause.

However, the vast majority of us would be up in arms if they were told they could no longer govern themselves, yet that is what some are asking / insisting that Ukraine does.*




*including people, such as Nigel Farage, with whom I agree on much, but not on this.
 

Danllan

Member
Location
Sir Gar / Carms
Lots as usual, how reliable anyone's guess.




From the heavily redacted Muller report on Russian inference:-
"According to Malloch, Corsi asked him to put Corsi in touch with Assange, whom Corsi wished to interview. Malloch recalled that Corsi also suggested that individuals in the “orbit” of U.K. politician Nigel Farage might be able to contact Assange and asked if Malloch knew them. Malloch told Corsi that he would think about the request but made no actual attempt to connect Corsi with Assange"
That's none then.
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
As for the rest of the above, what about what the Ukrainians want? I know there are some on here who think - or claim to think - that having unelected 'leaders' is a good thing; but is there really anyone on here who would seriously wish to see the their vote taken away from them? I doubt it but, if so, they are a lost cause.

However, the vast majority of us would be up in arms if they were told they could no longer govern themselves, yet that is what some are asking / insisting that Ukraine does.*




*including people, such as Nigel Farage, with whom I agree on much, but not on this.
I fully agree that it would be best if the Ukrainians could self govern with a free hand. That’s what they want. Nothing wrong with that per se.
But we can’t all have exactly what we want.
Everything is a compromise to some extent.
If you do want real self determination and clout then you need a big well equipped well trained army. If instead, you wish to borrow somebody else’s army then you can’t expect to have the final say in negotiations or a free choice in how things are going to be done.
 

Danllan

Member
Location
Sir Gar / Carms
I fully agree that it would be best if the Ukrainians could self govern with a free hand. That’s what they want. Nothing wrong with that per se.
But we can’t all have exactly what we want.
Everything is a compromise to some extent.
If you do want real self determination and clout then you need a big well equipped well trained army. If instead, you wish to borrow somebody else’s army then you can’t expect to have the final say in negotiations or a free choice in how things are going to be done.
Then let's help them do this, buying time for them, improving their infrastructure, economy and military.
 

BrianV

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Dartmoor
I fully agree that it would be best if the Ukrainians could self govern with a free hand. That’s what they want. Nothing wrong with that per se.
But we can’t all have exactly what we want.
Everything is a compromise to some extent.
If you do want real self determination and clout then you need a big well equipped well trained army. If instead, you wish to borrow somebody else’s army then you can’t expect to have the final say in negotiations or a free choice in how things are going to be done.
They are at present governing with a free hand, they or to be exact their somewhat dodgy leadership (rather than the general public) want to join both NATO & maybe the EU, this is not a right & if NATO decide it's far better for the long term peace to keep them out then that is fair enough, the same can be said for joining the EU who themselves have most to lose by upsetting their major energy supplier.

Just imagine the outcry if Cuba decided to join up with Russia both economically & militarily, far too many seem to want a devastating conflict but would be back tracking as fast as they could if it were to happen!
 

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