What are grain prices going to do?

[snarling bee]

I don't mind bragging - got 300t sold for £170 Nov, plus £7 biscuit premium.
Cocked up old crop though - average about £160 all group 1.
I'm not selling any more yet. Got some on pools though.

 

[David.]

All very well saying it was foolish not to cash out at £190, but what if you had "sensibly" half sold in mid/high £140s, because in Feb 18, it looked a decent enough price, a better price than you had averaged the season before; and then you dare not sell any more until harvest successfully in shed and dry?
Happens every time; and of course, land agents know that you had the chance to sell it all for nearly £200....and the smart Alecs get to say that you were greedy.

 

[Wombat]

Spot today £152 ex farm.

I have two simple rules for selling wheat:

You're never wrong selling over £150/t
If it gets close to £200/t, sell the lot!!

So far I've sold 1.5t/ac at an average of £154/t for September 19, and two loads at £152 iirc for September 2020.
Last year my average wheat price was £182. Don't think I'll get near that this year!

I sold all of mine when it got towards 190 and with no drying charges, I couldn’t get out fast enough last sept. Also no worrying when the rpa would pay then etc

 

[Sheeponfire]

I was guilty of that too.

Was told feed barley would be £200/t by Xmas! So held onto it. Was about £170/t. Still a good price. Now be lucky if i got £150.

Just planted more malting barley in springtime. So will use it ourselves.

Just a lesson learnt. If it gets to those prices again sell, and don't be greedy.

when we were bid 180 del for feed barley.... I thought like you .. oh aye this will go yet....

My old man said "laddie ... ye better fold yer cards at that money"..

pretty much all our tonnage was split 50% feed and got 50% away spot malting..

we did.. and I was a happy bunny......

will it happen again...

I bloody doubt it... never will we trade so on the button at pretty much top of the curve..

Hence tonight when i see wheat 150 nov

I ponder about taking some cover..

what a great casino we play in!!!!!

 

[DRC]

All very well saying it was foolish not to cash out at £190, but what if you had "sensibly" half sold in mid/high £140s, because in Feb 18, it looked a decent enough price, a better price than you had averaged the season before; and then you dare not sell any more until harvest successfully in shed and dry?
Happens every time; and of course, land agents know that you had the chance to sell it all for nearly £200....and the smart Alecs get to say that you were greedy.

I had also sold some very early in the 140,s last year and saw every rise afterwards as a chance to up my average. So kept selling a bit every time there was a decent jump.

 

[Bossfarmer]

back a bit today, rain in US must have eased