What could our wheat production be this harvest?

[AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds]

Time seems to come around fast, but next month, parts of England could start harvesting 2022 crops weather allowing.

After a dry April, the wetter May that we have had in parts of GB over the last month could possibly bring plenty of corn and hay this harvest. Sunshine hours this month too are critical for UK grains to take advantage of recent welcomed rains.

The latest crop development report to the 24 May, can give us an insight into the size of GB’s wheat crop this harvest. In the article, I use the latest winter wheat crop condition figures and apply them to yields scenarios, using the DEFRA June Survey, to give us an indicative production for harvest 22.

The scenarios are as follows:

• Excellent – five year maximum yields.
• Good – five year average yields plus 5%.
• Fair – five year average yields.
• Poor – five year average yields less 5%.
• Very poor – five year minimum yields.

I use these yield scenarios and apply them to our Early Bird Survey to estimate regional figures.

Please note that the latest planting figures will be out in our Planting & Variety Survey which is set to be published in July. We are entering the final stages of data collection. 5 minutes of your time to compete the survey can provide a great help to our industry.

UK production estimate​

Using the method outlined above, the UK’s 2022 wheat production is estimated to be 14.95Mt. This is up 7% on last year’s crop of 13.99Mt, and 10% up on the 5-year-average.

Every region is estimated to rise in production. In GB, the largest year-on-year rise being in the Eastern and South East region, where production out of the two regions could collectively increase by 815Kt. This is a 15% increase year-on-year.

Marginal increases are only recorded in Yorkshire & the Humber and Scotland, where production increases are estimated at 3.9Kt and 0.6Kt, respectively. In Yorkshire though its worth noting that production out of this region is still 4% above the five-year-average, which could potentially temper feed wheat premiums, into the 2022/23 marketing year. Though bioethanol demand will be something to watch in this region.

Conclusion​

To conclude this production is just an indicative figure for the coming harvest and there may be significant regional differences based on the GB crop condition scores. This analysis is assuming these conditions proportionally represent every region.

Comparing these conditions against yields, the UK production for this coming harvest could increase year-on-year. This may decrease our reliance on large imports for the 2022/23 marketing year

should no other factors change and requirements be met by domestic grain.

Further to that, fertiliser adjustments may also impact UK production this coming harvest. Read more information in Vikki’s article analysing production impacts from reduced nitrogen fertiliser strategies.

Today's Grain Market Daily on the AHDB website - What could our wheat production be this harvest? Grain Market Daily

For information on price direction make sure to subscribe to Grain Market Daily and Market Report from our team.

 

[DrWazzock]

Wet flowering time. I’d be concerned about quality. Not much sunshine now either. I’d say it’ll be fair to middling, nothing special. We’ll struggle for milling quality with this weather at flowering and also because folks might have cut back N rates. I predict an average harvest but with a bigger milling premium over feed as intended milling crops get downgraded to feed. Or millers might relax specs a bit. Still everything to play for. A lot can happen between now and getting it in the shed weatherwise.
How’s that?

 

[Humble Village Farmer]

Is there any info on fertiliser use for this season compared to normal?

 

[farmerm]

Is there any info on fertiliser use for this season compared to normal?

Well some of us who didnt buy N early last year has not put on anything like full rate.... It would certainly be interesting to know year on year N production/import data. If wheat production really is up, what other products have growers slashed? Less barley, less OSR, less Sugar Beet, less pulses?

 

[Humble Village Farmer]

I've also cut my fert and expecting lower yields, although the reduced fert thing is something I've been doing over a number of years.

 

[Pan mixer]

This time last year the crops looked lovely, then there was no sun (or haymaking weather) until harvest of pinched low-bushel weight grain.

Difficult to say yet but so far a feeling of deja vu.

 

[DrWazzock]

Spring drought followed by wet summer is becoming a tiresome routine here. The last decent summer we had here was 2018 when although the wheat was small it was perfectly formed and made spec. Every harvest since has suffered from rain through flowering and ripening which has impacted considerably on quality and made for a difficult harvest and poor sample.

 

[Hindsight]

Talking the market down AHDB?