What % of your winter wheat is sown?

[Clive]

ahdb dont say that 93% of wheat has been planted. they say that farmers when surveyed in February intended to plant 93% of the area of wheat they did last year, this included winter wheat and spring wheat yet to plant.
when you look at the data, it works out to be about 60+% of last years area. notso different than this survey

east midlands- 2019 planted 326,000Ha - 2020 survey, intended planted area 227,000Ha of which planted 62% = 140,740Ha ,(140740/326000)*100 = 43% of last years wheat area planted in the east midlands.

safe to say what was intended in February hasn’t happened for many and given immediate forecast plus how long it will take many soils to dry prospects of much (if any) more winter wheat going in are now remote

I think spring wheat is even becoming doubtful for some on heavy soils now, or late / lower potential at best ?

so logic says the current AHDB estimate of Uk tonnage is extremely optimistic

 

[lloyd]

ahdb dont say that 93% of wheat has been planted. they say that farmers when surveyed in February intended to plant 93% of the area of wheat they did last year, this included winter wheat and spring wheat yet to plant.
when you look at the data, it works out to be about 60+% of last years area. notso different than this survey

east midlands- 2019 planted 326,000Ha - 2020 survey, intended planted area 227,000Ha of which planted 62% = 140,740Ha ,(140740/326000)*100 = 43% of last years wheat area planted in the east midlands.

That is NOT what it says on the AHDB website .
Their quote is"For WINTER wheat 93% of the intended area was planted as of the 14th Feb".

 

[Sprog]

I have planted 90% of planned acreage which I think may yield 65% of average yield giving perhaps just under 60% of my normal expected tonnage.

 

[bankrupt]

That is NOT what it says on the AHDB website .

The AHDB figures published for winter wheat plantings are as clear as mud, which seems quite appropriate.

https://ahdb.org.uk/news/updated-planting-figures-show-wheat-area-at-1-504kha-grain-market-daily

"Spring wheat area intended is forecast at 200Kha, with only 2% planted so far.
For winter wheat, 93% of the intended area was planted as at February 14."

In fact, what they seem to be claiming, although they don't make it at all clear, is that 81% of the 2020 UK wheat acreage has already been planted to winter varieties and the remaining 19% will be split approximately 2:1 spring/winter (i.e. 81/87=93%).

 

[glasshouse]

safe to say what was intended in February hasn’t happened for many and given immediate forecast plus how long it will take many soils to dry prospects of much (if any) more winter wheat going in are now remote

I think spring wheat is even becoming doubtful for some on heavy soils now, or late / lower potential at best ?

so logic says the current AHDB estimate of Uk tonnage is extremely optimistic

Liars all

 

[Boysground]

I was going to plant another 35ac of wheat on one of the driest fields we have. This was just to reduce the spring barley area. Started ploughing in the mustard cover yesterday. I will now stick to barley it’s too late for wheat here.

Bg

 

[Renaultman]

Or even tonnage as a percentage of normal tonnage as I can see me harvesting nearly all of it but can see some of it being 2t ish. At the mo

Triton drills will be selling like hot cakes!

I've said it before. We all need a shed full of drills and the skill/foresight to work out which one to use. ?
Seriously though, I think there has got to be a market for a front hopper and distro where you pick up whichever ever drilling rig you think you need on the day.

 

[John Slejpner]

Or even tonnage as a percentage of normal tonnage as I can see me harvesting nearly all of it but can see some of it being 2t ish. At the mo

I've said it before. We all need a shed full of drills and the skill/foresight to work out which one to use. ?
Seriously though, I think there has got to be a market for a front hopper and distro where you pick up whichever ever drilling rig you think you need on the day.

Year two into a huge mortgage, i think the spring of 79, my parents faced an existential crisis. Wheat, and wheat was all we grew, was thin from a very difficult autumn and then prolonged severe cold and wind reduced whatever there was to soil level....fields were brown as brown at the end of March.

The advise in Farming News was that if you could throw your cap on the ground and it covered 1 wheat plant, then run it ... starting with a good thump of N.

We did and it yielded 2.6 ton acre.

Never give up.

( Edit : note to self as much as anyone else )

 

[Renaultman]

Year two into a huge mortgage, i think the spring of 79, my parents faced an existential crisis. Wheat, and wheat was all we grew, was thin from a very difficult autumn and then prolonged severe cold and wind reduced whatever there was to soil level....fields were brown as brown at the end of March.

The advise in Farming News was that if you could throw your cap on the ground and it covered 1 wheat plant, then run it ... starting with a good thump of N.

We did and it yielded 2.6 ton acre.

Never give up.

( Edit : note to self as much as anyone else )

I'm a great believer in trying to save what you've got rather than ripping it out and starting again. Particularly with OSR

 

[Hindsight]

http://link.ahdb.org.uk/m/1/45178595/p1-b20052-d760bd8ce41c4948a29b8f14b7fbbae7/2/764/b8a709ab-405c-4f8c-ab91-50a20d8675cb

AHDB 2020 production forecast published yesterday.

 

[bankrupt]

http://link.ahdb.org.uk/m/1/45178595/p1-b20052-d760bd8ce41c4948a29b8f14b7fbbae7/2/764/b8a709ab-405c-4f8c-ab91-50a20d8675cb

AHDB 2020 production forecast

AHDB's "worst case" wheat production scenario is calculated upon getting 2013 yields.

So could easily be lower than 9mt, even if not quite down to the 6mt proposed elsewhere on this forum.

Alex Cook - Trainee Analyst AHDB Market Intelligence [email protected]

 

[Steevo]

I'm a great believer in trying to save what you've got rather than ripping it out and starting again. Particularly with OSR

I always hate patching fields in the spring.

I find if you don’t rip up enough you find yourself wishing you had ripped up more.
If you rip it up you get a drought and wish you hadn’t ripped

 

[texelburger]

Well having travelled,fairly extensively,across the Midlands and North of England with the local rugby Club I would say the AHDB are being extremely optimistic. Have hardly any fields that I would call ok and lots drilled but rotted.My fag packet estimate for wheat production this season is around 8 mill tons max and could be even lower.

 

[bankrupt]

Year two into a huge mortgage, i think the spring of 79, ....fields were brown as brown at the end of March.

Same here.

Snowed all through April, nothing moved much until 1st May, but by 14th August had to go buy an extra combine to get it all in.

Slight difference is that the 1978/79 season was cursed by having started off far too dry.



edit :- new combine cut its own purchase price in a day and a half, which might be more difficult now.

 

[bankrupt]

my estimate for wheat production this season is around 8 mill tons max and could be even lower.

Clive's already taken 6, so I'm going for 7 whilst it's still available.

 

[yellow belly]

Not yet, but they have got planning permission now. What is the world coming to! The 21st century may get to us yet!

That will take the strain off the a1 with the constant stream of cars coming to the 24 hour drive in

 

[yellow belly]

Not yet, but they have got planning permission now. What is the world coming to! The 21st century may get to us yet!

the East Midlands planted area is 50% poor to very poor in condition

we now need to be looking at the crop ratings
if the is eventually 1.5 million ha wheat the proportion poor to very poor will be higher than 1.1 million ha
the eventual harvest may not be too dissimilar
they assuming that the average yield will be above 7 tonnes that could be feasible at 1.1 million ha but at 1.5 million acres it will be near 6

 

[bankrupt]

assuming that the average yield will be above 7 tonnes that could be feasible at 1.1 million ha but at 1.5 million acres it will be near 6

So you're on for the 9?

 

[bankrupt]

All those latest 2020 wheat totals in full -:

6 - Clive
7 - bankrupt
8 - texelburger
9 - yellow belly/ AHDB worst case
10 - AHDB mid-range
11 - 2013
12 - AHDB best case
13 - 2018
14 - 2016
15 - 2017
16 - 2019

 

[glasshouse]

All those latest 2020 wheat totals in full -:

6 - Clive
7 - bankrupt
8 - texelburger
9 - yellow belly/ AHDB worst case
10 - AHDB mid-range
11 - 2013
12 - AHDB best case
13 - 2018
14 - 2016
15 - 2017
16 - 2019

??????