Wheat into orbit

[Worsall]

Local flour mill is about to go to a two day week, first time since mid 1900's. Pig and poultry demand slipping. This bull run is being driven primarily by the funds who had their trousers pulled down by being massively short in the market, and are now trying to 'earn' their money back. How China and Russia respond in the next month will be the deciding factor if we see +/- £50/t. I am with @fieldfarmer on this, too early to be going whoop whoop.

 

[4course]

a year ago nov 21 wheat was trading around £155/t . 6th april21 was around £165 and mid july was @ £170 . today its over £200 each of these dates are around the time we spend a bit of time adjusting /sorting our budgets etc . Im glad we didnt take any notice of the so called gurus advising us to lock in a price at any of them in view of the unpredicted hike in inputs

 

[sexy lexy]

Nope. 100% not sold anything wheat / barley / beens or linseed all still unsold, so my 1000 ton wheat has gone up £3500 but my fert bill is up about 40k from last Yr, not feeling the enthusiasm yet.

Up 40k?? , need 93.5 ton of fert across 250 acres to produce 1000 tons of wheat, call it 100 tons of fert, £40k increase? that's £400 per ton increase, what were you buying it at last year £35 per ton

 

[glasshouse]

Local flour mill is about to go to a two day week, first time since mid 1900's. Pig and poultry demand slipping. This bull run is being driven primarily by the funds who had their trousers pulled down by being massively short in the market, and are now trying to 'earn' their money back. How China and Russia respond in the next month will be the deciding factor if we see +/- £50/t. I am with @fieldfarmer on this, too early to be going whoop whoop.

So did the funds sell wheat they didnt have to screw the market, but it failed and they couldn't buy it back?

 

[glasshouse]

Local flour mill is about to go to a two day week, first time since mid 1900's. Pig and poultry demand slipping. This bull run is being driven primarily by the funds who had their trousers pulled down by being massively short in the market, and are now trying to 'earn' their money back. How China and Russia respond in the next month will be the deciding factor if we see +/- £50/t. I am with @fieldfarmer on this, too early to be going whoop whoop.

No demand for flour?

 

[lloyd]

Whats wrong with you?

all sold?

What about the poor landlord ?
FBTs will have to go up!

 

[glasshouse]

What about the poor landlord ?
FBTs will have to go up!

No they wont

 

[lloyd]

Up 40k?? , need 93.5 ton of fert across 250 acres to produce 1000 tons of wheat, call it 100 tons of fert, £40k increase? that's £400 per ton increase, what were you buying it at last year £35 per ton

He wasn't just talking about growing wheat.

 

[lloyd]

No they wont

The pantomime season is nearly upon us.
'Yes they will '.

 

[fieldfarmer]

Up 40k?? , need 93.5 ton of fert across 250 acres to produce 1000 tons of wheat, call it 100 tons of fert, £40k increase? that's £400 per ton increase, what were you buying it at last year £35 per ton

Or I'm using 1000 ton to keep the maths simple, I have a bit more than 250 acres to buy fert for. My point is corn up around 6% and its into orbit fert up 100% the jobs forked.

 

[fieldfarmer]

What about the poor landlord ?
FBTs will have to go up!

Yep, big cheque yesterday.

 

[glasshouse]

The pantomime season is nearly upon us.
'Yes they will '.

Why?
What have they done to eearn an increase?
All upward rent reviews should be banned unless the landlord has improved the earning capacity of the holding

 

[sexy lexy]

He wasn't just talking about growing wheat.

If you read it he was saying 1000 ton of wheat up £3.50, only £3,5k

 

[sexy lexy]

Or I'm using 1000 ton to keep the maths simple, I have a bit more than 250 acres to buy fert for. My point is corn up around 6% and its into orbit fert up 100% the jobs forked.

Exran last year £198, quoted £365 last week, so not quite a 50% increase, only need 150kgs per acre of extran, wheat going from £190 last year to £210 for may across 4ton, a pessimist is never disappointed.

 

[glasshouse]

I thought i would just post it up for those not following the market closely
Should have known better
I was bid £174 for mine a mere fortnight ago, its now up £30 above that, which to me is significant

 

[lloyd]

Why?
What have they done to eearn an increase?
All upward rent reviews should be banned unless the landlord has improved the earning capacity of the holding

They dont have to improve the earning capacity
of the land that's not their problem it's yours.
Agents will be looking at the commodity price bonanza
and will be wanting big rent rises.
Wouldn't be surprised to see £300 quid rents on fbts for cereals
on decent land.

 

[Courier]

it could well do
just looking and talking around whilst harvest has been generally good ,its not been a record breaker . The amount of total harvested wheat is not above home use.
the amount of barley sown seems to be higher and as for osr the country will be yellow come spring and almost every crop ive seen looks tremendous atm thus the acerage of wheat may not be as big as some are predicting
The cost of transport and shipping has never been higher and is making it un economic to import
The rest of the world appear to have lower stocks and an increasing demand
the increase in growing costs could well have a negative effect on production
but then im an optimist a trait that one day will bear fruit

I too have been an optimist for the last 70 + years - can’t be in agriculture without being optimistic, it might pay off for my grandson

 

[holmes65]

They dont have to improve the earning capacity
of the land that's not their problem it's yours.
Agents will be looking at the commodity price bonanza
and will be wanting big rent rises.
Wouldn't be surprised to see £300 quid rents on fbts for cereals
on decent land.

You seem to be forgetting the imminent removal of bps on rental value.

 

[glasshouse]

They dont have to improve the earning capacity
of the land that's not their problem it's yours.
Agents will be looking at the commodity price bonanza
and will be wanting big rent rises.
Wouldn't be surprised to see £300 quid rents on fbts for cereals
on decent land.

It wont be decent for long

 

[glasshouse]

You seem to be forgetting the imminent removal of bps on rental value.

And input costs