Wheat into orbit

My current challenge is getting five minutes to get a preem on when it's daylight and calm. Fert is in the shed. Wasn't cheap. Wasn't dear. But I've got it.


Not the question though is it .. what's gonna happen to Fert in the coming year all over the world - because that has a direct effect on supply.

I don't see any solutions on the Natural Gas front - yet.

BoJo is also gonna tax NG.
 

Renaultman

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Darlington
futures may 22seems to be stuck a couple of £below 220 reckon its the yo yo effect,same with nov 22 atm im nay nay dont think grain is there for may and too far ahead for next yearbut im tempted though I dont like the phrase " if thats the worst you sell at "
And as you know. I do ;)
 

teslacoils

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
Weird isn't it ? Going from enough to not enough within one year.

Common factor being the move out of Coal in the West.

I've a feeling a lot of Chinese urea / fert relies on coal for the power, and they have had mine flooding issues? Either way, countries that normally export are keeping hold. Countries that normally import are squeeking a bit.
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
Fertiliser production is a casualty of gas consumption instability brought about by covid. Manufacturing processes which use gas shut down during Covid. Now they are using more gas than normal to replenish run down stocks of goods reliant on gas. But there will be an overshoot in production and gas consumption will fall a bit below normal in a year or so. There could be a bit of a roller coaster as the system stabilises. It will get back to "normal" despite global warming greenhouse talk. Make the most of it. I don't foresee high commodity prices long term.
 
Fertiliser production is a casualty of gas consumption instability brought about by covid. Manufacturing processes which use gas shut down during Covid. Now they are using more gas than normal to replenish run down stocks of goods reliant on gas. But there will be an overshoot in production and gas consumption will fall a bit below normal in a year or so. There could be a bit of a roller coaster as the system stabilises. It will get back to "normal" despite global warming greenhouse talk. Make the most of it. I don't foresee high commodity prices long term.


If there is higher demand than normal. Then the only way that can be rectified is an increase in supply. But that isn't happening - even the politics isn't there to support an increase in supply. In the case of China they are reducing supply.

So I think we'll see a reduced supply of food next year.
 

DrWazzock

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
If there is higher demand than normal. Then the only way that can be rectified is an increase in supply. But that isn't happening - even the politics isn't there to support an increase in supply. In the case of China they are reducing supply.

So I think we'll see a reduced supply of food next year.
Yes we will see a reduced supply of food next year. What happens thereafter will depend on whether the Russians and China continue a cold economic war with Western Europe , restricting gas supply.
Watch out for a softening of western political attitude to Russia / China. As it is the Russians could literally freeze the EU to death if they wanted to. Big strategic mistake relying on Russian gas. Expect big push to mitigate that.
 

Daniel

Member
Yes we will see a reduced supply of food next year. What happens thereafter will depend on whether the Russians and China continue a cold economic war with Western Europe , restricting gas supply.
Watch out for a softening of western political attitude to Russia / China. As it is the Russians could literally freeze the EU to death if they wanted to. Big strategic mistake relying on Russian gas. Expect big push to mitigate that.
If we fracked our own gas we could solve the problem, but the green loons won’t allow it, they’d rather see the masses in penury.
 

glasshouse

Member
Location
lothians
Yes we will see a reduced supply of food next year. What happens thereafter will depend on whether the Russians and China continue a cold economic war with Western Europe , restricting gas supply.
Watch out for a softening of western political attitude to Russia / China. As it is the Russians could literally freeze the EU to death if they wanted to. Big strategic mistake relying on Russian gas. Expect big push to mitigate that.
They are flexing their muscles prior to cop 26.
 

roscoe erf

Member
Livestock Farmer
this bloke managed it so any thing is possible

skynews-william-shatner_5544668.jpg
 

Old apprentice

Member
Arable Farmer
Watch out for a softening of western political attitude to Russia / China. As it is the Russians could literally freeze the EU to death if they wanted to. Big strategic mistake relying on Russian gas. Expect big push to mitigate that.

Sade that we have to stupe to this I would think there is plenty of gas etc . A managed changed to greener energy should be a government organised way not just hope it all workes out . USA was importing oil but now self sufficient. All pandering to silly people not managing the situation to change over systems.

Another year of a fert situation like this and wheat will definally in orbit!
 

SFI - What % were you taking out of production?

  • 0 %

    Votes: 77 43.5%
  • Up to 25%

    Votes: 62 35.0%
  • 25-50%

    Votes: 28 15.8%
  • 50-75%

    Votes: 3 1.7%
  • 75-100%

    Votes: 3 1.7%
  • 100% I’ve had enough of farming!

    Votes: 4 2.3%

Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

  • 1,285
  • 1
As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
Top