Wheat pressured as sterling hits 8 yr high vs Euro

CRM AgriCommodities

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Arable Farmer
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UK
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Cereals
  • Sterling rallied to its highest level since the Brexit vote against the US Dollar and gained 3.5% this week vs the euro, which is the strongest weekly performance since January 2009. Obviously, this weighed on domestic wheat prices with Nov-17 LIFFE feed wheat closing below the £140 mark and snapping a 3-week winning streak.
  • The Bank of England comments suggesting a rate hike sooner than expected fuelled the recovery in the sterling making foreign grain imports less expensive and forcing domestic prices lower in order to compete on the export market.
  • AHDB sees record UK wheat protein levels however lower specific weight and Hagbergs due to wet weather during harvest.
  • Dec-17 Euronext wheat posted its best weekly performance in nearly a year amid short-covering in the US which pushed CBOT wheat higher, ongoing weather concerns in Australia and a 0.8% weekly fall in the euro against the US Dollar.
  • According to FranceAgriMer, 79% of the French maize was in 'GD/EX' condition as of Sept 11th, unchanged week on week and compared to 54% a year ago.
  • BDI shipping index hit a 3-year high on increasing demand. Black Sea rates are strong due to big harvests and exports being seen.
  • Whilst the 2017 harvest is not even complete, US analyst Informa project the 2018 US corn plantings at 91.88Mac vs 90.66Mac this year. The 2018 US corn production is pegged at 14.549Bbu based on an estimated yield of 172.2bu/ac [2017 production is seen at 14.115Bbu with a yield of 169.7bu/ac by the US firm].
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Oilseeds
  • UK OSR prices remain under pressure from the stronger GBP, with EU prices supported by wider veg oil prices.
  • Analysts retain bearish tone on palm oil with leading analysts expecting a 9% fall of the vegetable oil in the fourth quarter.
  • Lower soybean prices in Argentina are expected to lead to a decline in planted area this season.
  • A similar trend is expected in the US, with the 2018 planted area projected at 89.06Mac, down from 90.66Mac, according to Informa. The US firm pegged the 2017 crop at 4.47Bbu with an estimated yield of 49.9bu/ac, in line with the USDA forecast.
  • Despite the USDA surprising the market yet again by raising its US soybean yield estimate this week, CBOT soybeans saw a 4th consecutive week of gains, its longest winning streak in nearly a year.
  • US private exporters reported the flash export sales of 132KT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2017/18 marketing year, after yesterday's 198KT sales.
  • NOPA report overview [See chart of the day #2]:
    • US August soybean crush at 142.424Mbu vs 137.501Bbu expected and 144.718Bbu in July;
    • US August soy oil stocks at 1.417B lbs vs 1.396B lbs expected and 1.558B in July.
Chart of the Day #1: EUR/GBP

Chart of the Day #2: NOPA report overview


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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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