wheat price and your predictions for what it will hit

[Dave645]

War will be over soon, putin will want the sanctions lifted in return for wheat , he will sell as much as he can to recoup the war costs, thus flooding the market with wheat, and putting himself across as the good guy, wheat will free fall to £180 a tonne

When you understand what his goals are and why he personally is doing it, you can work out if he will back down.

Now for me, he is doing it for long term economic control of the oil and gas markets, he saw the writing was on the wall, and gambled, watch the video.
He may try to settle the dispute but it’s only in his interests to hold the territory he has captured, so the west and the Ukraine will have to chose, let them have control of oil and gas in Europe and the Ukraine or keep the sanctions on. for me it’s not clear, the USA is semi happy it boosts gas exports and the price of crops, not sure how they are sorted with fert, but they have exportable surplus so food shortages, for them don’t seem likely. The EU well it’s tricky the Ukraine offered a way to avoid relying on Russian gas and oil, and the tactics Russia used, so settling the dispute where Russia blocks that doesn’t seem likely, now crops and exports will depend on Russia they want to hold food as the bargaining chip get what they want for letting food get exported, that includes annexing the territory they have taken and the end of sanctions, how likely is that. . . Not very to be honest. Not if it’s all in Russia’s favour.
Will Russia compromise a little to let wheat move maybe, but they have plenty of there own wheat so holding prices up, and selling too those willing to ignore sanctions is making them happy.

if you haven’t watch the video. The reasons and goals for what he is doing are clear, but it’s then make your mind up what will win out.

 

[DaveGrohl]

Could be worse. You could be paying up to $12 for a single iceberg lettuce like here. Went into the local supermarket before and they were $11 ffs.

Wow, all that money for something that provides zero nutrition. Mental. Why would anyone buy it? Maybe they’ve priced it like that cos of the "plant based" sticker?

 

[DaveGrohl]

When you understand what his goals are and why he personally is doing it, you can work out if he will back down.

Now for me, he is doing it for long term economic control of the oil and gas markets, he saw the writing was on the wall, and gambled, watch the video.
He may try to settle the dispute but it’s only in his interests to hold the territory he has captured, so the west and the Ukraine will have to chose, let them have control of oil and gas in Europe and the Ukraine or keep the sanctions on. for me it’s not clear, the USA is semi happy it boosts gas exports and the price of crops, not sure how they are sorted with fert, but they have exportable surplus so food shortages, for them don’t seem likely. The EU well it’s tricky the Ukraine offered a way to avoid relying on Russian gas and oil, and the tactics Russia used, so settling the dispute where Russia blocks that doesn’t seem likely, now crops and exports will depend on Russia they want to hold food as the bargaining chip get what they want for letting food get exported, that includes annexing the territory they have taken and the end of sanctions, how likely is that. . . Not very to be honest. Not if it’s all in Russia’s favour.
Will Russia compromise a little to let wheat move maybe, but they have plenty of there own wheat so holding prices up, and selling too those willing to ignore sanctions is making them happy.

if you haven’t watch the video. The reasons and goals for what he is doing are clear, but it’s then make your mind up what will win out.

Lol, that vid pushed its way to the front of my Youtube queue last night. Seeing as it was midnight I managed to stop myself from watching it.

 

[SilliamWhale]

When you understand what his goals are and why he personally is doing it, you can work out if he will back down.

Now for me, he is doing it for long term economic control of the oil and gas markets, he saw the writing was on the wall, and gambled, watch the video.
He may try to settle the dispute but it’s only in his interests to hold the territory he has captured, so the west and the Ukraine will have to chose, let them have control of oil and gas in Europe and the Ukraine or keep the sanctions on. for me it’s not clear, the USA is semi happy it boosts gas exports and the price of crops, not sure how they are sorted with fert, but they have exportable surplus so food shortages, for them don’t seem likely. The EU well it’s tricky the Ukraine offered a way to avoid relying on Russian gas and oil, and the tactics Russia used, so settling the dispute where Russia blocks that doesn’t seem likely, now crops and exports will depend on Russia they want to hold food as the bargaining chip get what they want for letting food get exported, that includes annexing the territory they have taken and the end of sanctions, how likely is that. . . Not very to be honest. Not if it’s all in Russia’s favour.
Will Russia compromise a little to let wheat move maybe, but they have plenty of there own wheat so holding prices up, and selling too those willing to ignore sanctions is making them happy.

if you haven’t watch the video. The reasons and goals for what he is doing are clear, but it’s then make your mind up what will win out.

I can definitely see a situation where "special operation is complete" we have recaptured the Donbass. Thankyou very much, now lets put it all behind us.

Germany and Italy needing a winter of gas will say "condemn this is the strongest terms" but behind closed doors breathing a sigh of relief

 

[DaveGrohl]

I called local caseih dealer for a fuel lift pump on Friday. Cummins 8.3. Apparently I was the second one that day looking for one,on back order and don’t expect to see it any time soon was the answer, called a dealer in the states and the woman said same thing. Must be thousands of these engines in various machines. Talking with a Trimble rep that I’m setting up a drainage system with and he can’t get any new gps equipment for at least five months and he said expect the price to double. Everyone is jumping on the bandwagon and charging what they want.

Don’t know what it’s like over there but it seems like this country is just completely grinding to a halt.

 

[hoff135]

Food price inflation. And folk changing habits. Interesting world. In South Lincolnshire in past couple of weeks several fields of lovely Cauliflower chopped up. And same with Carrots and Parsnips. Potatoes now being as good as dumped. Freebuy is around £90 tonne. In Supermarket being retailed £450 - 500 tonne. So there is plenty of good reasonably priced food available if the public would like to buy it and cook it. Bit every time I drive past the Grantham McDonalds it is busy (or very busy). And Domino Pizza opposite is open and busy. But none of us wants to change our way of life. Hey ho

Majority of people seem to have plenty money. As fuel prices reach record levels again I can honestly save I've never seen roads as busy. Live next to a a road that is a major tourist route. Its nose to tail with canper vans, cars with roof boxs etc. Thought last year was busy but this year is worse.

 

[som farmer]

economics are dead simple, its all about supply and demand, until the politicians bugger it up.
one would think they have buggered this right up.
The UK has vast reserves of oil, and gas, coal and rare earth minerals, one could assume that with the current crisis v Russian oil/gas, the ideal solution for the UK, would be to up supply to Europe. After all, it would be in our advantage, to have a 'hold' over the EU, rather than them being under the Russian 'hold'. Surely that would smooth relations, with them.
Sorry, forgot, politicians, interfered, and prefer to be 'green', so we all get hammered by high prices.
Those reserves, esp coal, drove the industrial revolution, which made us the worlds power house, and led to the 'empire', those reserves are still there, the empire isn't, but we could very easily become an incredibly rich nation, if we so desired, by exploiting those reserves again. And to be honest, all the talk about reducing fossil fuel use, is all hot air, a dream that won't happen soon.

 

[DaveGrohl]

War will be over soon, putin will want the sanctions lifted in return for wheat , he will sell as much as he can to recoup the war costs, thus flooding the market with wheat, and putting himself across as the good guy, wheat will free fall to £180 a tonne

Keep saying it; markets always always always overshoot. Then the rocket falls to Earth. It’s just what markets do because of the amounts of money traded on the idea of a commodity rather than the value of a commodity.

 

[DaveGrohl]

Majority of people seem to have plenty money. As fuel prices reach record levels again I can honestly save I've never seen roads as busy. Live next to a a road that is a major tourist route. Its nose to tail with canper vans, cars with roof boxs etc. Thought last year was busy but this year is worse.

What’s the alternative though? Manchester Airport?

 

[hoff135]

What’s the alternative though? Manchester Airport?

Stay at home because they can't afford to go anywhere? I don't think we are at a level yet where the majority are impacted enough to cut their discretionary spending

 

[DaveGrohl]

Stay at home because they can't afford to go anywhere? I don't think we are at a level yet where the majority are impacted enough to cut their discretionary spending

Rising interest rates will influence that more than food price inflation. Not that they’ll be able to raise them much anyway.

 

[farmerm]

If prices are low combined with fert purchased now at over £600/t could be a financial disaster.

Hence I am not intending to buy N until I have a viable crop in the ground and have confidence to sell some wheat forwards and hedge against the expensive fert.

 

[cows sh#t me to tears]

Redirect Notice

 

[farmerm]

Stay at home because they can't afford to go anywhere? I don't think we are at a level yet where the majority are impacted enough to cut their discretionary spending

I think we are, just most are still in denial and don't notice their bank accounts are going deeper and deeper into the red... Our household energy bill up £800 and that will rise to £1200/pa by end of the year. Our motor fuel up £1200/pa. Our grocery spend up at least £1500/pa That £4000 was our discretionary spending!

 

[Hindsight]

Stay at home because they can't afford to go anywhere? I don't think we are at a level yet where the majority are impacted enough to cut their discretionary spending

Anecdotal comments from a farmer near Skegness with regard to potatoes for chip shops is that folk are indeed travelling to the Lincs coast to stay in the caravans but once there are buying food in Aldi and Lidl and choosing to stay in to eat the main evening meal, this fish and chip shops in Skeg are reporting poor trade yet the main street is very busy. The slot guys report same. So maybe discretionary spending is just that, discretionary. In Scotland the telling tale will be whether the tourists just take in the views (for free) or / and spend money on non essentials, such as nice meals in restaurants. Time will tell.

 

[Hindsight]

I think we are, just most are still in denial and don't notice their bank accounts are going deeper and deeper into the red... Our household energy bill up £800 and that will rise to £1200/pa by end of the year. Our motor fuel up £1200/pa. Our grocery spend up at least £1500/pa That £4000 was our discretionary spending!

Yep, the current situation is a 'phoney war' Come late summer all thought of spending will change. And then the psychology will be to not spend 'just in case'.

 

[farmerm]

Yep, the current situation is a 'phoney war' Come late summer all thought of spending will change. And then the psychology will be to not spend 'just in case'.

I have always had that philosophy yet somehow money still trickles in and torrents out Not sure what is phoney about the war? I am sure it is all too real for many thousands of grieving families and those fighting or surviving in the thick of it.

 

[Dave645]

Hence I am not intending to buy N until I have a viable crop in the ground and have confidence to sell some wheat forwards and hedge against the expensive fert.

That’s my plan, while you can in theory sell forward now, the volatility we are seeing makes that a big gamble.
Roll on 3 months and we will have a better idea what things are going to look like and make business decisions about cropping and other things. Selling forward or not where the war is going etc etc.
If the war had ended gas may fall if Russia pulled out and sanctions were dropped, and the whole system would reset by spring, fert prices and wheat prices may look radically different.
I can even hedge my bets by pushing some cropping too spring drilling if needed.
I don’t fancy beans because I feel every man and his dog will grow extra beans and that doesn’t play towards strong beans prices.
Saved seed will be popular as dressing your own only effects you by its selling price if you normally hold wheat to sell during the year then it only costs the average of your selling prices for the year, so if wheat crashes so do your seed costs. If you buy it in you fix your seed price and if that was high and wheat falls you lose.

 

[glasshouse]

Anecdotal comments from a farmer near Skegness with regard to potatoes for chip shops is that folk are indeed travelling to the Lincs coast to stay in the caravans but once there are buying food in Aldi and Lidl and choosing to stay in to eat the main evening meal, this fish and chip shops in Skeg are reporting poor trade yet the main street is very busy. The slot guys report same. So maybe discretionary spending is just that, discretionary. In Scotland the telling tale will be whether the tourists just take in the views (for free) or / and spend money on non essentials, such as nice meals in restaurants. Time will tell.

A fish supper is a lot of cash now

 

[Hindsight]

I have always had that philosophy yet somehow money still trickles in and torrents out Not sure what is phoney about the war? I am sure it is all too real for many thousands of grieving families and those fighting or surviving in the thick of it.

Sorry you have misinterpreted my use of 'phoney war'. The real war in Ukraine is indeed very real. I think the lack of change in consumer spending mentioned in past few posts on here is indeed a phoney war. Folk having one last hurrah before battening down the hatches when that Leccy and Oil Bill arrives. Winter of discontent and strikes awaits. 1974 all over again.