wheat price and your predictions for what it will hit

[Dave645]

I have always had that philosophy yet somehow money still trickles in and torrents out Not sure what is phoney about the war? I am sure it is all too real for many thousands of grieving families and those fighting or surviving in the thick of it.

Phoney reasons for it to be started, as you say the fighting is not in the least bit phoney.

 

[farmerm]

That’s my plan, while you can in theory sell forward now, the volatility we are seeing makes that a big gamble.
Roll on 3 months and we will have a better idea what things are going to look like and make business decisions about cropping and other things. Selling forward or not where the war is going etc etc.
If the war had ended gas may fall if Russia pulled out and sanctions were dropped, and the whole system would reset by spring, fert prices and wheat prices may look radically different.
I can even hedge my bets by pushing some cropping too spring drilling if needed.
I don’t fancy beans because I feel every man and his dog will grow extra beans and that doesn’t play towards strong beans prices.
Saved seed will be popular as dressing your own only effects you by its selling price if you normally hold wheat to sell during the year then it only costs the average of your selling prices for the year, so if wheat crashes so do your seed costs. If you buy it in you fix your seed price and if that was high and wheat falls you lose.

Having not managed to drill wheat in the wet Autumn I wish not to remember I shall be forever reluctant to forward sell before emergence!!

 

[glasshouse]

Sorry you have misinterpreted my use of 'phoney war'. The real war in Ukraine is indeed very real. I think the lack of change in consumer spending mentioned in past few posts on here is indeed a phoney war. Folk having one last hurrah before battening down the hatches when that Leccy and Oil Bill arrives. Winter of discontent and strikes awaits. 1974 all over again.

The lack of change in govt policy is the real phoney bit
They could cut fuel duty tomorrow To curb inflation but they wont
Still planting subsidy trees on arable land
Still not cranking up oil production

 

[Chae1]

Hence I am not intending to buy N until I have a viable crop in the ground and have confidence to sell some wheat forwards and hedge against the expensive fert.

I've sold 1t/acre 2023 crop forward at £308/t.

Bought about 70% next years N though.

 

[SilliamWhale]

I've sold 1t/acre 2023 crop forward at £308/t.

Bought about 70% next years N though.

Thats good going I never saw 2023 crop hit £308

 

[D14]

There is huge political risk in wheat prices right now. All it will take is there to be a negotiated settlement in Ukraine and the bottom will fall out of the wheat market. Yes, actually getting grain out of there will be difficult for some time even if it was all over tomorrow, but the markets will react very sharply to a de-risking of the region.

If the bottom falls out of the wheat market then we will just cancel our fertiliser order. Simple as that really and then if the fert price does not drop in line with the wheat price we just won't buy any and use biological fertilisers instead.
and accept a lower yield.

 

[Goweresque]

Sorry you have misinterpreted my use of 'phoney war'. The real war in Ukraine is indeed very real. I think the lack of change in consumer spending mentioned in past few posts on here is indeed a phoney war. Folk having one last hurrah before battening down the hatches when that Leccy and Oil Bill arrives. Winter of discontent and strikes awaits. 1974 all over again.

I agree. The economy is running on fumes IMO. There's a massive amount of pent up demand after covid restrictions and lockdowns, and people are just spending whatever it takes to get back to their old lives. Its not sustainable and will hit a wall later this year/early next.

The whole vibe reminds me of 1990 - the economy was doing pretty well and suddenly someone turned off the tap, and we entered a very nasty recession. One made worse by the fact that interest rates were being hiked at the same time due to us being in the ERM and needing to support the £ vs the Dm. It wasn't until Black Wednesday in 1992 when we finally crashed out of the ERM that rates could be set for UK conditions, and the economy immediately picked up. A very similar position today - interest rates will have to stay higher than the economy really needs in order to bear down on inflation. A double whammy - higher prices of everything, especially energy and food, and higher interest rates to boot. It won't be pretty.

 

[Sandpit Farm]

Risk management panel debate | AHDB

Join our AgriLeader team for a debate about planning in a crisis.

ahdb.org.uk

This one looked pretty relevant to this. I too am a little worried about interest rates and whether the costs will find their way back to where they were. I still think we will be short of milk through winter and into next year so that is the saving grace for farmers but cheesemakers are going to be hiking their prices to retailers as the milk they will have bought for cheese that won't sell for 12 months will have been bought now at the cost it currently is.

If basket price goes up of fundamentals like bread, cheese and milk - it will drive the price up of everything else. More people will be in poverty so the living wage will need to increase and if this happens it exacerbates the problem as it further increases the cost of food - it will not find a way down and this will not help poor people at all. I definitely think the government need to help the poorest in a way that can get around this.

 

[cattleman123]

I agree. The economy is running on fumes IMO. There's a massive amount of pent up demand after covid restrictions and lockdowns, and people are just spending whatever it takes to get back to their old lives. Its not sustainable and will hit a wall later this year/early next.

The whole vibe reminds me of 1990 - the economy was doing pretty well and suddenly someone turned off the tap, and we entered a very nasty recession. One made worse by the fact that interest rates were being hiked at the same time due to us being in the ERM and needing to support the £ vs the Dm. It wasn't until Black Wednesday in 1992 when we finally crashed out of the ERM that rates could be set for UK conditions, and the economy immediately picked up. A very similar position today - interest rates will have to stay higher than the economy really needs in order to bear down on inflation. A double whammy - higher prices of everything, especially energy and food, and higher interest rates to boot. It won't be pretty.

Yes been told the above by many...everyone seems to see it coming except our Government led be a puppet....

 

[Sandpit Farm]

If the bottom falls out of the wheat market then we will just cancel our fertiliser order. Simple as that really and then if the fert price does not drop in line with the wheat price we just won't buy any and use biological fertilisers instead.
and accept a lower yield.

Is there a market for separated slurry (the solid fraction)? In my experience, it is a nightmare to get rid of. I had wondered if it could be reduced to below 35% moisture content, haulage becomes feasible.

 

[Nearly]

Yes been told the above by many...everyone seems to see it coming except our Government led be a puppet....

Muppet

 

[Widgetone]

If the bottom falls out of the wheat market then we will just cancel our fertiliser order. Simple as that really and then if the fert price does not drop in line with the wheat price we just won't buy any and use biological fertilisers instead.
and accept a lower yield.

Showing my ignorance here, but can one just cancel a fert order without penalty if you've bought dear then?

 

[Dave645]

I called local caseih dealer for a fuel lift pump on Friday. Cummins 8.3. Apparently I was the second one that day looking for one,on back order and don’t expect to see it any time soon was the answer, called a dealer in the states and the woman said same thing. Must be thousands of these engines in various machines. Talking with a Trimble rep that I’m setting up a drainage system with and he can’t get any new gps equipment for at least five months and he said expect the price to double. Everyone is jumping on the bandwagon and charging what they want.

Try kramp, they will be less than half the price for the lift pump, MF lift pump £215 kramp £45.

 

[hoyboy]

Try kramp, they will be less than half the price for the lift pump, MF lift pump £215 kramp £45.

Chinese electric lift pump about £20, wire it in off of the electric stop on the injector pump. Going again in 5 mins. I have them on everything. Keep a few spare in the workshop

 

[Chae1]

Thats good going I never saw 2023 crop hit £308

It's a low N malting barley contract. NOV 23 Wheat futures plus £20.

 

[turbo]

War will be over soon, putin will want the sanctions lifted in return for wheat , he will sell as much as he can to recoup the war costs, thus flooding the market with wheat, and putting himself across as the good guy, wheat will free fall to £180 a tonne

It was above £200/t well before Putin invasion and that’s before the growing problems of most of the major grain production of the world was known!

 

[SilliamWhale]

I agree. The economy is running on fumes IMO. There's a massive amount of pent up demand after covid restrictions and lockdowns, and people are just spending whatever it takes to get back to their old lives. Its not sustainable and will hit a wall later this year/early next.

The whole vibe reminds me of 1990 - the economy was doing pretty well and suddenly someone turned off the tap, and we entered a very nasty recession. One made worse by the fact that interest rates were being hiked at the same time due to us being in the ERM and needing to support the £ vs the Dm. It wasn't until Black Wednesday in 1992 when we finally crashed out of the ERM that rates could be set for UK conditions, and the economy immediately picked up. A very similar position today - interest rates will have to stay higher than the economy really needs in order to bear down on inflation. A double whammy - higher prices of everything, especially energy and food, and higher interest rates to boot. It won't be pretty.

But inflation is worldwide not uk specific

 

[lloyd]

Arable farmers will be the taxmans new best friends if corn is £300/t +

Have you had many machinery quotes lately?

 

[Iben]

I've sold 1t/acre 2023 crop forward at £308/t.

Bought about 70% next years N though.

Assuming it is a typical 50/50 contract? Then at the same time as locking in a fixed price, you have also committed 1t/AC as spot price. ?

MSP knocking on doors offering contracts for next year. This is six months ahead of normal, are they worried everyone is going to grow wheat, or people are just sick of them and growing feed barley?

 

[Chae1]

Assuming it is a typical 50/50 contract? Then at the same time as locking in a fixed price, you have also committed 1t/AC as spot price. ?

MSP knocking on doors offering contracts for next year. This is six months ahead of normal, are they worried everyone is going to grow wheat, or people are just sick of them and growing feed barley?

You don't have to supply the spot element. Legally.

Your correct I will though if I have it.

As I will this year as it will be better price cause I locked some in at £170/t.