wheat price and your predictions for what it will hit

farmerm

Member
Location
Shropshire
If the bottom falls out of the wheat market then we will just cancel our fertiliser order. Simple as that really and then if the fert price does not drop in line with the wheat price we just won't buy any and use biological fertilisers instead.
and accept a lower yield.
Murphs law states the bottom will only fall out the wheat market the day after the fert has arrived...
 

farmerm

Member
Location
Shropshire
Showing my ignorance here, but can one just cancel a fert order without penalty if you've bought dear then?
Its a good question 🤷‍♂️ I cant simply cancel a grain contract because in hindsight I sold it too cheap. It might be something that is overlooked in the terms and conditions of sale, pretty sure fert price falling significantly after new season prices are released has never happened, historically it has only ever gone up.
 

Goweresque

Member
Location
North Wilts
The issue with selling forward is the old one of the buyers not being prepared to stand by their contracts if there's a market price crash, and using the old 'Its not up to spec, you'll have to take spot feed price' routine. Anyone sitting on a forward contract @ £300/tonne for 2022 or 2023 had better hope that prices are still that high come collection time, because you can bet your bottom dollar they'll be doing everything in their power to wriggle out of said contract if the spot price is £200 at that point.
 

Lowland1

Member
Mixed Farmer
£400 here but it was £300 in October and our fertiliser price has reached £950 for our planting and £800 for Nitrogen. No one is starving here yet as the basic diet is maize meal and kale. Diesel runs at about 90 pence a litre and petrols about a pound. Oh and a mars bar costs about a pound and a Magnum ice cream about £2 we don’t see much obesity.
 

farmerm

Member
Location
Shropshire
£400 here but it was £300 in October and our fertiliser price has reached £950 for our planting and £800 for Nitrogen. No one is starving here yet as the basic diet is maize meal and kale. Diesel runs at about 90 pence a litre and petrols about a pound.
How do you secure fert and diesel at those prices? A pocket full of fert smuggled out must be worth a couple of hours wages!
 

Lowland1

Member
Mixed Farmer
How do you secure fert and diesel at those prices? A pocket full of fert smuggled out must be worth a couple of hours wages!
Diesel theft is a big issue here. The people who collect our produce estimate the amount required for the journey and only fill that amount. Here on the farm we record all fill ups and record the job done and hours worked so we know if there is an issue somewhere. Same with fertiliser though obviously someone can fill their boots if we aren’t around. Top dressing and spraying are all done by family members but we do try to be good employers and pay well for the country and there’s usually vegetables not up to spec that can be taken home. If you employed 400 people in a business in UK you’d probably have some bad people too. With wheat prices as they are i would make more money this year just growing wheat but i reckon that may cause a lot of problems for the people.
 

An Gof

Member
Location
Cornwall
If the bottom falls out of the wheat market then we will just cancel our fertiliser order. Simple as that really and then if the fert price does not drop in line with the wheat price we just won't buy any and use biological fertilisers instead.
and accept a lower yield.

Cancel your order?
A deal is a deal. Do you expect a merchant to cancel a well sold forward contract if the bottom falls out of the wheat market?
 

7610 super q

Never Forgotten
Honorary Member
Plenty of talk about grain prices dropping. No talk whatsoever about fert prices dropping.
I'm not buying fert till I see what we actually get this harvest. £200 / ton for grain, and £700 for fert doesn't interest me much.

Oh, and sorry...........but I can't worry whether livestock farmers can afford to pay £300 for grain. My worry is my own bank account.
 

An Gof

Member
Location
Cornwall
Merchants don't need to cancel unprofitable (for them) contracts. They just 'discover' that your grain isn't up to spec when it reaches the mill..........
Possibly, but you are being pedantic and you know what I meant.
I had fertiliser bought well last year that hadn't been delivered when the price started shooting up. Yara honoured the deal, I would expect to do the same if the shoe was on the other foot. Perhaps my integrity is a little higher than some on here.
 

teslacoils

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Lincolnshire
The issue with selling forward is the old one of the buyers not being prepared to stand by their contracts if there's a market price crash, and using the old 'Its not up to spec, you'll have to take spot feed price' routine. Anyone sitting on a forward contract @ £300/tonne for 2022 or 2023 had better hope that prices are still that high come collection time, because you can bet your bottom dollar they'll be doing everything in their power to wriggle out of said contract if the spot price is £200 at that point.
I've no fears that my grain sales will be honoured. It's All ex central store. Feed plus premiums as applicable. There really is no get out unless they go bust....and even then I've insurance to cover that.
 

Pennine Ploughing

Member
Mixed Farmer
It was above £200/t well before Putin invasion and that’s before the growing problems of most of the major grain production of the world was known!
Yes that may well be so, and was climbing in value week on week,

However I can see that if Putin sort of gets what he wants, and its sorta finished in Ukraine, and even though it will go on for a while yet, it could be over by end of summer, and at that point he has a very good bargaining tool with the rest of the world, and that is wheat, both their own and a good chunk of Ukrainian wheat,
Now the sanctions are hard against him, but yet their will want to get back to normal ASAP on world trade, and remember, Putin does not think he has done anything wrong, so inorder to get back to trading with the world he has something the world wants, and that's grain, he may well come round to not only cut a deal with the world on grain, but also flood the market, remember Russia will not want to be isolated from the world long, and with all the grain not getting traded out of Ukraine for a few months, it is in effect getting stock piled, and once he starts to sell it, he will sell more to starve and punish Ukraine for the resistance, thus selling more than normal out of Ukraine.
He will try to put it over that he is saving the world from famine, and yet maybe not wanting to put fertiliser exports up to were they were, as this will still give him the upper hand on yields, for future exports.
Don't underestimate him on what he may do to world grain trading,

I suppose that if 12 months ago I said fertiliser would be 3 times the price next year, you would of laughed at me.,, or were you one of them in the know last summer, and built a shed and filled it full of fertiliser, for stockpiling 4 years of fert you need
 

turbo

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
lincs
Yes that may well be so, and was climbing in value week on week,

However I can see that if Putin sort of gets what he wants, and its sorta finished in Ukraine, and even though it will go on for a while yet, it could be over by end of summer, and at that point he has a very good bargaining tool with the rest of the world, and that is wheat, both their own and a good chunk of Ukrainian wheat,
Now the sanctions are hard against him, but yet their will want to get back to normal ASAP on world trade, and remember, Putin does not think he has done anything wrong, so inorder to get back to trading with the world he has something the world wants, and that's grain, he may well come round to not only cut a deal with the world on grain, but also flood the market, remember Russia will not want to be isolated from the world long, and with all the grain not getting traded out of Ukraine for a few months, it is in effect getting stock piled, and once he starts to sell it, he will sell more to starve and punish Ukraine for the resistance, thus selling more than normal out of Ukraine.
He will try to put it over that he is saving the world from famine, and yet maybe not wanting to put fertiliser exports up to were they were, as this will still give him the upper hand on yields, for future exports.
Don't underestimate him on what he may do to world grain trading,

I suppose that if 12 months ago I said fertiliser would be 3 times the price next year, you would of laughed at me.,, or were you one of them in the know last summer, and built a shed and filled it full of fertiliser, for stockpiling 4 years of fert you need
How much wheat is there actually in the Ukrainian?and what sort of harvest are they going to have.
 

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Red Tractor drops launch of green farming scheme amid anger from farmers

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As reported in Independent


quote: “Red Tractor has confirmed it is dropping plans to launch its green farming assurance standard in April“

read the TFF thread here: https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/gfc-was-to-go-ahead-now-not-going-ahead.405234/
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