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When will it stop raining
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<blockquote data-quote="holwellcourtfarm" data-source="post: 7434319" data-attributes="member: 42914"><p>That's why whoever coined the phrase "global warming" did a great disservice. The true expert researchers in the field only talk about "warming" in very specific terms, they use "climate change" for the general tend.</p><p></p><p>The earth's climate has always changed. It's changing faster now though due to our activities. There is HUGE uncertainty about exactly what will change, by how much and where but they can give predictions of general trends with fair confidence.</p><p></p><p>I like to use the analogy of the old kids "Spirograph" toy for our climate. Those old enough to remember it will know it had a series of plastic frames and gears that meshed, with holes in the gears to put a pen or pencil through. You put paper under the frame and ran the chosen gear, with your pen in it, round the frame. This gradually revealed a complicated design on the paper. A small change in which hole the pen was in or which gear was used utterly changed the design. It worked by creating patterns within patterns within patterns. You could only see the big picture emerge once you'd done enough rotations.</p><p></p><p>We are trying to understand a system (our climate) which is based on many cycles of greatly varying length but only have good data for the shortest ones so we are only seeing part of the picture. Ice cores and geology have given us a very fuzzy view of some of the very long cycles but our robust data is only around 200 years old, a blink of the eye in climate change terms.</p><p></p><p>Anyone who claims to fully understand our climate is a charlatan, a con artist or selling something imho.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="holwellcourtfarm, post: 7434319, member: 42914"] That's why whoever coined the phrase "global warming" did a great disservice. The true expert researchers in the field only talk about "warming" in very specific terms, they use "climate change" for the general tend. The earth's climate has always changed. It's changing faster now though due to our activities. There is HUGE uncertainty about exactly what will change, by how much and where but they can give predictions of general trends with fair confidence. I like to use the analogy of the old kids "Spirograph" toy for our climate. Those old enough to remember it will know it had a series of plastic frames and gears that meshed, with holes in the gears to put a pen or pencil through. You put paper under the frame and ran the chosen gear, with your pen in it, round the frame. This gradually revealed a complicated design on the paper. A small change in which hole the pen was in or which gear was used utterly changed the design. It worked by creating patterns within patterns within patterns. You could only see the big picture emerge once you'd done enough rotations. We are trying to understand a system (our climate) which is based on many cycles of greatly varying length but only have good data for the shortest ones so we are only seeing part of the picture. Ice cores and geology have given us a very fuzzy view of some of the very long cycles but our robust data is only around 200 years old, a blink of the eye in climate change terms. Anyone who claims to fully understand our climate is a charlatan, a con artist or selling something imho. [/QUOTE]
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