who s bullish or whos bearish

4course

Member
Location
north yorks
seems the cereal market has got that feel of could go either way ,anyone a view? ,at the moment im inclined to hold what we have left and sell a bit along the way
 
Question has to be how much have you sold already? If you haven't sold very much I'd market a little now. The market is flat at the moment. Are you prepared to risk the market falling away if the currency situation improved?
 

4course

Member
Location
north yorks
think there is a lot more to it than just currency ,and wether 1 load or 50 10% or 90%left makes little difference as to what to do now other than averaging, the question is do I/we hold or sell to be below or above todays or future price
 
Location
North Notts
Seems to have been floating along at about £140 spot feed wheat for most of the season now. If you're prepared to go to the end with most of your wheat unsold you're a braver man than me.

Our wheat seems expensive if we need to export but it's a long time till harvest and a lot can happen

Truth is I haven't a bloody clue!
 

4course

Member
Location
north yorks
Seems to have been floating along at about £140 spot feed wheat for most of the season now. If you're prepared to go to the end with most of your wheat unsold you're a braver man than me.

Our wheat seems expensive if we need to export but it's a long time till harvest and a lot can happen

Truth is I haven't a bloody clue!
thats two of us and more besides as im getting conflicting advice/opinions from who ever I talk to but im thinking holding wont be a grave mistake
 
thats two of us and more besides as im getting conflicting advice/opinions from who ever I talk to but im thinking holding wont be a grave mistake
Sell physical and take a call option. Your physical sale protects your from a falling market and the option against a rising market.

What the option would cost would be interesting though!
 

franklin

New Member
Cant see anything exciting happening to old crop unless we get some excitement in June. More bullish new crop. But as it all seems to come down to currency, who really knows.
 

Brisel

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Midlands
Global stocks are massive, so no major price upsets unless currency shifts in a big way IMHO.

upload_2018-1-11_8-6-4.png

Source: http://www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfo-sd.aspx

Ok, so the stocks-to-use ratio is 23.5% which isn't excessive but you won't see much price volatility until it dips well below 20%. Within the total grains stats you've got different levels for wheat vs maize, oilseeds etc. The story for wheat is worse - 33.5% stocks-to-use with little voltility until you drop to 20%. Stocks of wheat are still building, it's only maize that is coming down a bit.

upload_2018-1-11_8-11-45.png

Conclusion? Sideways market for the time being. Sell into rallies as the £ will fluctuate with economic & Brexit news. IMO there might be a bit of upside in milling wheat & malting barley as 2017 harvest quality wasn't great in the South. Lots of quality grain heading for the feed bins around here.

Disclaimer - I know feck all about grain markets. My rolling average of sales (85% of old crop priced) are a few quid under the current spot market which is hardly at its peak anyway. I'm typing this in a farm office in Dorset, not a beach on Necker Island so my advice is what you've paid for it i.e. diddly squat! :D
 

PSQ

Member
Arable Farmer
Global stocks are massive, so no major price upsets unless currency shifts in a big way IMHO.

View attachment 620378
Source: http://www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfo-sd.aspx

Ok, so the stocks-to-use ratio is 23.5% which isn't excessive but you won't see much price volatility until it dips well below 20%. Within the total grains stats you've got different levels for wheat vs maize, oilseeds etc. The story for wheat is worse - 33.5% stocks-to-use with little voltility until you drop to 20%. Stocks of wheat are still building, it's only maize that is coming down a bit.

View attachment 620380
Conclusion? Sideways market for the time being. Sell into rallies as the £ will fluctuate with economic & Brexit news. IMO there might be a bit of upside in milling wheat & malting barley as 2017 harvest quality wasn't great in the South. Lots of quality grain heading for the feed bins around here.

Disclaimer - I know feck all about grain markets. My rolling average of sales (85% of old crop priced) are a few quid under the current spot market which is hardly at its peak anyway. I'm typing this in a farm office in Dorset, not a beach on Necker Island so my advice is what you've paid for it i.e. diddly squat! :D

Thats only half of the story.

Follow the 'world stocks' line on the graph, and anything other than a global record crop (scenario 'A') will reduce stocks. Scenario C, a 3 year low, will see world stocks back where they were in 2012. Add to this that Chinese stocks are Chinese stocks, (i.e. they're not selling anything back into the world market) and thats if they actually exist at the level the rest of the world guesses at. The last thing anyone would do in a high stakes game would be to show their position, and China would rather bluff from a position of weak stocks than tell the truth, and spook the market into another 2012 price spike.

So in answer to the OP: Bullish, with bells on.





Screen Shot 2018-01-11 at 10.15.12.png
 

PSQ

Member
Arable Farmer
FYI, the graph in the previous post should be credited to Julian Bell, ag economist at the SRUC.
Anyone with an interest in crop production and marketing could do a lot worse than attend one of the annual AHDB roadshows, which have just started touring the UK. Tickets available FoC for levy payers on the AHDB website under 'Events'.
 
Last edited:

Flat 10

Member
Arable Farmer
Location
Fen Edge
Thats only half of the story.

Follow the 'world stocks' line on the graph, and anything other than a global record crop (scenario 'A') will reduce stocks. Scenario C, a 3 year low, will see world stocks back where they were in 2012. Add to this that Chinese stocks are Chinese stocks, (i.e. they're not selling anything back into the world market) and thats if they actually exist at the level the rest of the world guesses at. The last thing anyone would do in a high stakes game would be to show their position, and China would rather bluff from a position of weak stocks than tell the truth, and spook the market into another 2012 price spike.

So in answer to the OP: Bullish, with bells on.





View attachment 620400
I like your positivity.....
 

e3120

Member
Mixed Farmer
Location
Northumberland
Thats only half of the story.

Follow the 'world stocks' line on the graph, and anything other than a global record crop (scenario 'A') will reduce stocks. Scenario C, a 3 year low, will see world stocks back where they were in 2012. Add to this that Chinese stocks are Chinese stocks, (i.e. they're not selling anything back into the world market) and thats if they actually exist at the level the rest of the world guesses at. The last thing anyone would do in a high stakes game would be to show their position, and China would rather bluff from a position of weak stocks than tell the truth, and spook the market into another 2012 price spike.

So in answer to the OP: Bullish, with bells on.





View attachment 620400
Do you not think that there's a pattern where demand follows production and therefore the effect on stocks of scenarios B&C would be less pronounced?

Disclaimer A: I know less than feck all about grain markets
Disclaimer B: I'd like to talk the market down, as a net buyer.
 

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