- Location
- South Wales UK
They give you what ever it is at that time ?
who s bullish or whos bearish
- Thread starter 4course
- Start date
A couple, including the ODA one they talked about on our WCoF course. I'm still not beating the pools by much, so that doesn't make me much better at actually consistently doing it in real life. I'd like to think my strategy and risk management has improved though.
wellingtonfarmer
Member
- Location
- Herefordshire
Can you give a quick idiots guide to how that buying paper grain works?
If prices fall haven't you still lost money?
Been asked the same on another thread but rather than take this or the other thread off topic I will start a new sperate one when I get a bit of spare time
Farmer-George
Member
https://www.forbes.com/2006/10/18/m...nter_basic_how_options_work.html#2227ae883b2f
This is a basic understanding of how it works.
This is a basic understanding of how it works.
warksfarmer
Member
Only 20% sold so far at an average of £152 for milling wheat. I think there’s legs in it yet.
shakerator
Member
- Location
- LINCS
Options can never be "good value" , but volatility was low in 2017 so these premiums are at the low end ...
You are paying a premium for the "time value of money" and of course you don't have to commit to your put unlike a futures, ....it's a "right but not obligation"....say if wheat went to £200...yes your option would be worthless but small loss compared to opportunity cost of NOT selling at £200.
If wheat fell hard to £120 by you will be "in the money" and can either cash out early (buy wheat back) or sell the futures at expiry.
If wheat stays flat, or rises / falls marginally you lose out
Personally as a farmer producing physical i keep it simple ...short wheat sell...long wheat hold... and control risk by tonnages committed
If you expect volatility to increase these could be seen to be good value, however that is a paradox as they are priced themselves by a mathematical formulae taking all the above into account.
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oil barron
Member
- Location
- Aberdeenshire
Oils on the rise. Cereals will follow suit in 6 months time as sure as night follows day
Why do you think that is? Cereals are very different apart from fertiliser & diesel there is no correlation. I do agree with you but have no evidence to support the link other than history.
oil barron
Member
- Location
- Aberdeenshire
I guess there is the bio ethanol plants but I don't know if they have enough volume to move markets. I think it is mostly down to traders chasing commodity markets when oil starts to rise
What % of the global crop goes into biofuels?
https://www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfo-forecasts.aspx Also, see attached report from the link.
2.7% of wheat
3.4% of maize
Not much, but a market mover in the big exporting blocs like EU, USA or MERCOSUR?
https://www.igc.int/en/markets/marketinfo-forecasts.aspx Also, see attached report from the link.
2.7% of wheat
3.4% of maize
Not much, but a market mover in the big exporting blocs like EU, USA or MERCOSUR?
shakerator
Member
- Location
- LINCS
Commodity block investing cycles?
The investors are generally riding the trends rather than altering fundamentals IMO. In the end I don't think they move markets further than increasing volatility when they are playing.
oil barron
Member
- Location
- Aberdeenshire
The question isn't what total percentage. The question is what swing tonnage is there dependant on oil price.
That's a harder question to answer, hence my last sentence. So much of the world crop stays where it is produced, unlike oil. It's the small % that is traded internationally that determines the price discovery. Can any of our resident grain trade answer that @Grain Buyer @crazy_bull @Condi ?
- Location
- Huntingdon
Not off the top of my head, no.
However with Vivergo shutting it certainly has taken the heat out of the feed wheat market, so it is safe to suppose if crude oil rallies enough to make it financially viable to fire it up again it will add fuel to the markets. I don't think it will open up again in this season however, but likely after next harvest.
C B
However with Vivergo shutting it certainly has taken the heat out of the feed wheat market, so it is safe to suppose if crude oil rallies enough to make it financially viable to fire it up again it will add fuel to the markets. I don't think it will open up again in this season however, but likely after next harvest.
C B
Not a lot because inclusion is mandated, rather than being left to the free market.
Its only really in Brazil where they have true flexi-fuel vehicles you have a straight choice between petrol and ethanol.
shakerator
Member
- Location
- LINCS
https://www.agrimoney.com/news/key-wheat-supply-reading-to-hit-tightest-in-11-years-in-2018-19-50430
(Well worth registering imo )
@Brisel
Its not just market heresay....the IGC appear to recognise gross world stocks figures misrepresent the true s&d context... has the "China factor" been abused to keep prices down for too long .....
(Well worth registering imo )
@Brisel
Its not just market heresay....the IGC appear to recognise gross world stocks figures misrepresent the true s&d context... has the "China factor" been abused to keep prices down for too long .....