Will there be ANY fertiliser available next year?

[snarling bee]

Unless the Ukraine situation gets sorted in the next 6 months, will there be any fertiliser of any sort available next year, at any price?
But then 5 t/ha wheat at £300, with much lower direct costs, might not be all that bad.

 

[Bald Rick]

I shall enjoy seeing my slurry lagoons fill up ........

Actually, come to think of it, can I afford the food to feed the cows to produce the slurry to fill the pit to spread on the land to grow the food to feed the cows to fill the pit ....

 

[Davey]

Necessity is the mother of all invention, I think (hope) what we will see is a greater push into building on solutions already in development: https://www.theengineer.co.uk/itm-power-gears-up-for-green-hydrogen-revolution/

 

[vantage]

Necessity is the mother of all invention, I think (hope) what we will see is a greater push into building on solutions already in development: https://www.theengineer.co.uk/itm-power-gears-up-for-green-hydrogen-revolution/

It was reading well until the article mentioned “decade”!

 

[Davey]

It was reading well until the article mentioned “decade”!

Everything exists and is working at their site in Sheffield, their ability to ramp things up will be given a massive boost by events in the last few weeks.

Not impossible one of the big energy companies get onboard and really turbo charges the project

 

[john432]

Everything exists and is working at their site in Sheffield, their ability to ramp things up will be given a massive boost by events in the last few weeks.

Not impossible one of the big energy companies get onboard and really turbo charges the project

Did Newton not state" energy cannot be created or destroyed, just changed into other forms." Isn't that plant dependant on turning electricity or some carbon rich feedstock into hydrogen gas? Be ok when there is a surplus of renewable energy...

 

[7610 super q]

Having grown organically for 25 years, I'm used to pish poor yields. What I don't want is merchants fussing about low bushel weights, pinched grains, high admix etc, etc, etc.

 

[yin ewe]

Unless the Ukraine situation gets sorted in the next 6 months, will there be any fertiliser of any sort available next year, at any price?
But then 5 t/ha wheat at £300, with much lower direct costs, might not be all that bad.

I'll just be happy to get this years bought and let next year sort itself out. Probably be saying the same thing this time next year

 

[Davey]

Did Newton not state" energy cannot be created or destroyed, just changed into other forms." Isn't that plant dependant on turning electricity or some carbon rich feedstock into hydrogen gas? Be ok when there is a surplus of renewable energy...

Yes, yes and erm yes.

In basic terms using electricity to make hydrogen, the difference being we can generate electricity from renewable sources, we just need to get better at it pretty sharpish!

There is no magic bullet but ideas like this form a piece of the puzzle, with added implications for domestic and commercial energy storage (when compared to current battery tec)

 

[Two Tone]

I spoke with my supplier this morning. He cannot give me a price or a supply for next season at the moment.
Before the Rusky-Ukraine war started, prices of Urea were coming down expecting to be £450 to £500/tonne for next season. Now, thoughts are £800+.
Not all manufacturers use Russian gas to make their fertilisers, but Russia does have major deposits of P&K fertilisers that have been the major, if not only supplier to the UK in recent years.

The consensus of opinion now is that Nitrogen fertiliser will be available but at very high prices.
This will reduce the justifiable maximum amount that can be applied.

Because of its greater use in the explosives industry than used in agriculture AN is not allowed to be used in most of the world. Urea is likely to become more popular and available that AN.

On the other side of the equation, particularly now Ukrainian grain production and Exports will be limited, is what price grain will get to. Obviously the higher it gets, the higher the level of expensive fertilisers are justified. Except that fertiliser at any price cannot be obtained if there is any shortage of it, which looks highly likely.


I’m not averse to making large reductions in the amount of fertiliser we use, if the price of grain compensates for the lower yields.
This will surely happen and StU’s with become very tight if not completely disappear as yields drop below demand completely.
Recent high grain prices were caused by global yield catastrophes and not influenced by the possibility of lower yields caused by the reduction in fertiliser usage. However, that view is now changing.
Perhaps we are going to have to learn to live without fertilisers or how, when and where to use very much lower levels of it.

The dilemma facing us now is whether or not to reduce maximum levels of what we have in the barn and hold some of it over for next year.
IMO, we should base those decisions on what we know, rather than what might happen next year.
This is the least risky solution.

 

[Flatlander]

I’ll be filling my bulk bins up as soon as they empty after planting. I see no reason why prices won’t rocket up. This year has seen massive increases even before putins decision to invade and sanctions to curb his temper tantrum’s. Ukrainian won’t be exporting what grain they do have with the country in turmoil farming will be to feed its own people, all the Ukrainians customers will be hungry for from another source creating a new player to the grain game. With this extra demand higher yields will be needed hence fertilizer will be needed even more so. It’s going to be a high stakes ride if you can hold on well.

 

[nick...]

With little or no fertiliser and lower yields we will still be using a lot of herbi/fungicides so I can’t really see it happening.can see a lot of the country being fallowed.we don’t all grow 10/12 ton crops and plenty of us only doing 8,or the truthful ones anyway
nick...

 

[Two Tone]

With little or no fertiliser and lower yields we will still be using a lot of herbi/fungicides so I can’t really see it happening.can see a lot of the country being fallowed.we don’t all grow 10/12 ton crops and plenty of us only doing 8,or the truthful ones anyway
nick...

Lower Nitrogen fertilisers usage will see a reduction in need for fungicides.
Nitrogen fertiliser usage stretches the plant cell walls making them highly susceptible to fungal disease.
Organic farmers soon noted that Blackgrass problems virtually disappeared when the use of Artificial Nitrate fertilisers ended.

Nitrate fertilisers increase crop yields, but also increase the need for fungicide and herbicide usage.

 

[super4]

With little or no fertiliser and lower yields we will still be using a lot of herbi/fungicides so I can’t really see it happening.can see a lot of the country being fallowed.we don’t all grow 10/12 ton crops and plenty of us only doing 8,or the truthful ones anyway
nick...

Surely nows the time to be in the game and certainly not fallowing land.

 

[Flatlander]

Lower Nitrogen fertilisers usage will see a reduction in need for fungicides.
Nitrogen fertiliser usage stretches the plant cell walls making them highly susceptible to fungal disease.
Organic farmers soon noted that Blackgrass problems virtually disappeared when the use of Artificial Nitrate fertilisers ended.

Nitrate fertilisers increase crop yields, but also increase the need for fungicide and herbicide usage.

I’d agree with the lower use of fungicides from a lusher crop but disease will still be there so you’ll be spraying and the weeds were in farms long before bagged fertilizer was used. Best way to reduce herbicide dependance is a strong competitive crop. Not A thin hungry nutrient starved one.

 

[spin cycle]

i think it would be a sensible approach to to consider that fert might not be available next year

 

[Chieftain]

Did Newton not state" energy cannot be created or destroyed, just changed into other forms." Isn't that plant dependant on turning electricity or some carbon rich feedstock into hydrogen gas? Be ok when there is a surplus of renewable energy...

I think the ideal solution would be having self sufficient nuclear fusion plants supplying electricity to these electrolysis plants where your hydrogen fuel/fertiliser is then made from the output hydrogen. Obviously it's decades off being carbon neutral, even if you supply it with wind electric there are high value metals in the electrolysers themselves (usually platinum) that will be sourced with fossil fuels. Certainly a step in the right direction nonetheless.

 

[Clive]

it’s not just about the margin

consider the extra capital required and how many farmers will be able to access that globally ?

 

[cb387]

How come there’s no talk about co2 production anymore. When the fert thing first kicked off it seemed co2 was more important to the country than nitrogen hence the govt subsidised has to gas to keep the factories running. Doesn’t seem to be mentioned now, maybe got from somewhere else?

 

[Steevo]

How come there’s no talk about co2 production anymore. When the fert thing first kicked off it seemed co2 was more important to the country than nitrogen hence the govt subsidised has to gas to keep the factories running. Doesn’t seem to be mentioned now, maybe got from somewhere else?

UK strikes new deal to ensure CO2 gas supplies

Britain said on Tuesday it had reached an agreement with carbon dioxide producers CF Industries to ensure a sustainable supply of the widely-used gas whose production has been threatened by high global prices.

www.reuters.com