Will Very High Input Costs, Cause A Drop In Production?

[Steevo]

The last thing we want is the government involved.......you can be 100% sure that they'll screw it up.

 

[ajd132]

The last thing we want is the government involved.......you can be 100% sure that they'll screw it up.

100%

 

[warksfarmer]

Leaving it fallow is cheaper than making a loss growing a crop.

If fertiliser opens up at £1200/t as predicted by many then majority of farmers won’t buy it. The government need to step in and fund the fert manufacturers to control the price.

I’ve no moral obligation to produce food so if it means a year off, so be it.

 

[le bon paysan]

Done some basic figures, wheat at 4 t hectare @280€ = 1140, costs approximately 600€ leaves just over 500€ this year. Next year finish with about 150 ish if I use prices as of today.
Wheat price is just a guess, may go up or down.
Straw kept for sucklers.

 

[Tarw Coch]

Leaving it fallow is cheaper than making a loss growing a crop.

If fertiliser opens up at £1200/t as predicted by many then majority of farmers won’t buy it. The government need to step in and fund the fert manufacturers to control the price.

I’ve no moral obligation to produce food so if it means a year off, so be it.

I’m sure a lot of livestock farmers will be envious of the fact you can if you wish take a year out and restart afresh the year after with little effect.
Not so easy on the livestock side although at £1200 ton their is likely to be a lot of semi organic livestock farms, cutting back on stock to what the farm will carry with little or no fert , indeed there are quite a few who were planning that at £600 ton

 

[DrWazzock]

Leaving it fallow is cheaper than making a loss growing a crop.

If fertiliser opens up at £1200/t as predicted by many then majority of farmers won’t buy it. The government need to step in and fund the fert manufacturers to control the price.

I’ve no moral obligation to produce food so if it means a year off, so be it.

Yes. Eroding capital just for the sake of carrying on farming is a pointless exercise. Doing so at a loss just drains capital away, it doesn’t keep it together.

 

[britt]

I’m sure a lot of livestock farmers will be envious of the fact you can if you wish take a year out and restart afresh the year after with little effect.
Not so easy on the livestock side although at £1200 ton their is likely to be a lot of semi organic livestock farms, cutting back on stock to what the farm will carry with little or no fert , indeed there are quite a few who were planning that at £600 ton

Many will plant something to improve the soil fertility and may just be grateful for some stock to destroy it and turn it into fertiliser

 

[Two Tone]

I’ve done contracting on an organic dairy plus wheat farm.
It isn’t so bad and I’m reasonable convinced that we could go a year or two without fertiliser, until things settle down.
Crops after grass or a break crop would still be surprising good. Second cereals will be where the problems might be. But if you access to muck, they’ll do alright too.
Yields will be half what we would normally get. No need for fungicides at those levels and herbicide usage would also drop, because Blackgrass absolutely loves fertiliser. But who cares getting half the yield if costs are so much lower and the price of grain is so high?
If we all did this, those prices will remain high because the StU’s (Stock to Use) go into a permanent deficit level.

 

[Grass And Grain]

I agree with you on the Beef thing, many people just want burgers and mince these days, the expensive cuts just aren't bought by many.
I suspect burgers and mince can be handled by ex dairy cows and Dairy X beef. It makes the suckler job a bit redundant.
If dairy can support much of the beef market into the future - as well as providing the world with dairy products - that could free up land for other things?
I might be a bit biased there, as I've always struggled seeing the point of sucklers when dairy cows exist.

Lots of sucklers are kept on rough grazing that dairy farmers wouldn't even look at.

In response to the OP - Yes, farm output will drop. Slight drop this year, then bigger drop 2023 if fert is expensive and farm produce prices don't keep up with the input inflation.

 

[andybk]

Big issue will be Russian grain entering the market (its still going to be there !) , due to sanctions the ruble is now very low value which will make it very cheap to buy , im certain someone that will deal with russia will buy it and re sell it onto a higher market , prob india or pakistan (may find its way to uk feed / flour mills eventually ) , maybe undercutting domestic that needs to be higher to cover input cost .could be a blood bath at some point

 

[Steevo]

Big issue will be Russian grain entering the market (its still going to be there !) , due to sanctions the ruble is now very low value which will make it very cheap to buy , im certain someone that will deal with russia will buy it and re sell it onto a higher market , prob india or pakistan (may find its way to uk feed / flour mills eventually ) , maybe undercutting domestic that needs to be higher to cover input cost .could be a blood bath at some point

Hmmmmm.....if only there was a way I could ensure that the food I eat is "traceable, safe and farmed with care".

 

[andybk]

Hmmmmm.....if only there was a way I could ensure that the food I eat is "traceable, safe and farmed with care".

lol sure red tractor can help you out , (not)

 

[Tarw Coch]

Hmmmmm.....if only there was a way I could ensure that the food I eat is "traceable, safe and farmed with care".

Grow/rear your own

 

[Bossfarmer]

im hearing a large percentage of irish farmers havent bought fert yet, anyone else hearing this?

 

[bluebell]

if a lot of farmers decide not to buy fertilizer at these very very high prices, production will go down, fact? or if not why do you buy fertilizer in the first place?

 

[andybk]

if a lot of farmers decide not to buy fertilizer at these very very high prices, production will go down, fact? or if not why do you buy fertilizer in the first place?

the thing that will be interesting is how farmers mitigate fert use , one of my landlords is getting interested in clover companion crop with his wheat among other things , (previously blocked by agronomist)

 

[Top Tip.]

Speaking to one of the fert reps he said half his livestock customers had not bought any fertiliser and were going to run the cows over their silage ground and cash them in the backend. This would be a repeat of what happened in the seventies when costs soared.

 

[Tarw Coch]

Speaking to one of the fert reps he said half his livestock customers had not bought any fertiliser and were going to run the cows over their silage ground and cash them in the backend. This would be a repeat of what happened in the seventies when costs soared.

I will be surprised if 10% cash the lot in but I expect the vast majority will cut back some

 

[Humble Village Farmer]

the thing that will be interesting is how farmers mitigate fert use , one of my landlords is getting interested in clover companion crop with his wheat among other things , (previously blocked by agronomist)

Agronomists block a lot of things when they can see a reduced spend as a consequence.

 

[Steevo]

Speaking to one of the fert reps he said half his livestock customers had not bought any fertiliser and were going to run the cows over their silage ground and cash them in the backend. This would be a repeat of what happened in the seventies when costs soared.

Doesn’t that risk a price crash if everyone supplies them to market at the same time?