Tupping plan 2015- numbers up or down?

Wishful Thinker · Jul 5, 2015

I could go either way, will depend on gimmer prices. Once I've sold all lambs going to work out a budget, stick to it and whatever i get i get. Hoping to build a new shed so will be a tight budget this year.

Henarar · Jul 5, 2015

lets face it nobody knows what the lamb price will be like next year so you just have to do what you feel is right and see what happens

dazza b · Jul 5, 2015

Expanding a lot this year was all in the plan as me and the wife are taking some land off my dad need to get my sheep numbers up quickly then I can start on beef then, and am happy with current prices

sherg · Jul 5, 2015

We were lambing 650 or so dropped it to just over 300 this time and I think they might just go altogether for next year and just buy stores its not as rewarding but the majority of the time its more profitable

Hurdle bunter · Jul 5, 2015

sherg said:
We were lambing 650 or so dropped it to just over 300 this time and I think they might just go altogether for next year and just buy stores its not as rewarding but the majority of the time its more profitable

You won't know what to do with yourself!

neilo · Jul 5, 2015

Hurdle bunter said:
You won't know what to do with yourself!

He'll be alright. I've heard he'll be sitting in a deck chair and counting how many times the turbine turns round.

neilo · Jul 5, 2015

Henarar said:
lets face it nobody knows what the lamb price will be like next year so you just have to do what you feel is right and see what happens

+1 I think you can only try to match numbers to what your farm can stand on your system. For me, I have a lot of pp and a chunk of parkland, so am limited in options. Busy improving the land & pasture, I want higher numbers to use it most efficiently (as has always been the plan). Where we get to, depends on how things work out. I certainly won't be expanding to the point where I need to take paid labour on though, so land & labour on a minimal intervention system are the boundaries.

I did work out that I could ditch the pedigrees, keep 500 extra Highlanders in their place, and be better off with less work, even at today's prices.

Hurdle bunter · Jul 5, 2015

neilo said:
He'll be alright. I've heard he'll be sitting in a deck chair and counting how many times the turbine turns round.

f**k me he'll want a windbreak and a brolley perched up there

sherg · Jul 6, 2015

neilo said:
He'll be alright. I've heard he'll be sitting in a deck chair and counting how many times the turbine turns round.

Mega like for that one

Hurdle bunter said:
fudge me he'll want a windbreak and a brolley perched up there

Doesn't sound a bad idea

Hurdle bunter said:
You won't know what to do with yourself!

Just been getting the feeling there's easier ways to make money rather than lambing ewes although if a good block of ground came up to rent then I would probably go for it, the biggest problem we've got here is that we haven't got enough ground to run enough ewes to really make the job stack up

David. · Jul 6, 2015

I am just not convinced that they are better than mules. What does it matter if there is a small premium for a U3L, if an R2 yields more money a fortnight sooner on a falling trade like this year and last.
Most of our lambs have been going to RP on a flat rate the last 5 yrs anyway, and we have been very happy.
Not saying they are not nice sheep mind, just think the slowness of the Texel to market is coming through in their lambs.
Oh, and it is difficult to keep the bloody Texel tups alive.

Frank-the-Wool · Jul 6, 2015

What a depressing thread!
A lot of enthusiasm to keep more sheep and hopefully produce more lambs, but I have not seen a single mention of finding any new markets for this extra production. Or is that down to AHDB or the NFU?

Very fortunately at the moment the amount of NZ lamb is running out, but if I was a supermarket buyer I would be down there pretty soon doing a deal to buy my next years supply at the present exchange rate.

Many on here are happy to produce lambs at £60.00 that would equate to a store price in the low £40's, even with free land those figures are difficult to make much of a living from.
Some of the previous COP figures posted on here do not dramatically reduce the costs through economies of scale, depreciation being the main one.

We have all been very fortunate up to now in that the old ewe prices have been firm, there is no guarantee of that staying at the recent level and has dropped back recently.
Increasing numbers with no additional market is like the arable farmers building new sheds to put last years grain in because it might be worth more next year! I suppose more ewes might eat more corn.

JD-Kid · Jul 6, 2015

we will be dropping
a few resons
this years scanning higher about 10% over last year so can drop some ewes yet keep the same numbers for sale lower wintering costs and lower animal health etc etc higher chance of doing ewes better over lambing
the out come in greese is a bit shakey
china is not that strong so could lead to some market probs
aussie has just come out with a farming package http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/07/03/farmers-approve-new-agriculture-blueprint
that could have some efects in the market place maybe not so much in the EU but other markets they could start supplying larger numbers
realy it's a dig in improve profits by lowering inputs

jemski · Jul 6, 2015

Lambed 400 ewes and 50 ewe lambs this year. Long term plan is to increase, but having lost a number to pasteurella and having a big cull/clean out I will be lambing about 320 ewes but more ewe lambs hopefully.... Unless I see some very nice affordable ewes, but I'm trying to close the flock so it's unlikely.....

Tim W · Jul 6, 2015

For a fat lamb producer I think the prudent approach is 'more from the same'
So get better at it by reducing inputs (labour/ewes/costly feed) but maintain or increase comparative output (kg/acre/£input/day)

I am increasing numbers because I can without increasing labour or rental costs and because the demand for low input/hi-health status stock is steadily increasing

Tim W · Jul 6, 2015

Henarar said:
lets face it nobody knows what the lamb price will be like next year so you just have to do what you feel is right and see what happens

I predict that ;
1) Domestic demand will remain broadly static for the next year or two
2) Export demand will increase

But due to currency exchange etc the value lamb to producers will remain about the same ---as of now I am budgeting on £63 for a 21 kg fat lamb on a year round basis

Henarar · Jul 6, 2015

Tim W said:
I predict that ;
1) Domestic demand will remain broadly static for the next year or two
2) Export demand will increase

But due to currency exchange etc the value lamb to producers will remain about the same ---as of now I am budgeting on £63 for a 21 kg fat lamb on a year round basis

you may be right, did you predict the fall in price this year ?

Tim W · Jul 6, 2015

Henarar said:
you may be right, did you predict the fall in price this year ?

can't remember ---i'm like Nostradamus , you can read what you like into my predictions!

If I knew how to search the beef and lamb tracker I may be able to find out ?

Nithsdale · Jul 6, 2015

Like many others... my numbers are going up. But iv been culling hard and had a few issues which have left me with less sheep as i should have.

Johngee · Jul 6, 2015

Every time we've tried to increase numbers it's led to a decrease in lambing percentage and we just rear the same number of lambs anyway. So I think there will be a good hard cull this year, a slight reduction in numbers, less ewes wintered and hopefully a similar number of lambs reared. That's Plan A anyway.

hillman · Jul 6, 2015

Been culling hard over last couple off years and this cull will get rid off last off prob ewes hopefully
Next aim to upp lambing %
Numbers will remain static as maxed on stocking and housing (oops dirty word)
Getting (I think) on top off a few issues now
Future do the best I can with what I have , expansion is out due to competition from dairy and stupid conacre prices

Tupping plan 2015- numbers up or down?

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0 %

Up to 25%

25-50%

50-75%

75-100%

100% I’ve had enough of farming!

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