Forums
New posts
Forum list
Search forums
What's new
New posts
New resources
Latest activity
Trending Threads
Resources
Latest reviews
Search resources
FarmTV
Farm Compare
Search
Tokens/Searches
Calendar
Upcoming Events
Members
Registered members
Current visitors
New Resources
New posts
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Forum list
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Navigation
Install the app
Install
More options
Contact us
Close Menu
Forums
Arable Farming
Arable Market Commentary
Argentina is keeping rapeseed prices supported
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds" data-source="post: 8626716" data-attributes="member: 142623"><p>Argentina has been hit by the worst drought in 60 years, which has been ongoing since last year. To start, it severely impacted their wheat crop for this marketing year (2022/23). Currently, it is having significant implications on their spring cropping which is being hit hard by the ongoing drought.</p><p></p><p>We’ve been discussing for a while that the impacting risk of the La Niña weather event has been priced into the soyabean market. That combined with other factors, such as demand for biofuels, has kept soyabean prices elevated. Which to some extent has provided the fundamental supporting floor to domestic rapeseed prices.</p><p></p><p>According to Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) 67% of the soyabean crop (up until 02 Mar) is rated “poor / very poor”, up from 60% estimated the week before and up from 23% estimated at the same point last year. The crop is currently forecast at 33.5Mt by BAGE, further revisions are expected to this crop. Oilworld predict that the crop could be somewhere between 25Mt to 28Mt, significantly down from the potential of 48Mt which was expected at the start of the growing cycle (oilworld.biz).</p><p></p><p>Over the next seven days, temperatures are going to be abnormally high in Argentina’s agricultural region, which will further add stress, we are awaiting further revisions for this soyabean crop.</p><p></p><p> <img src="https://projectblue.blob.core.windows.net/media/Default/Market%20Intelligence/cereals-oilseeds/Grain%20Market%20Daily/2023/03.%20March/07%2003%202023/graph%201%2007%2003%202023.PNG" alt="A map showing Argentina's weather's weather" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p></p><h3>Predicting the USDA</h3><p>Tomorrow the latest USDA March World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimate (WASDE) is going to be released, with revisions expected to Argentina’s maize and soyabean crops.</p><p></p><p> <img src="https://projectblue.blob.core.windows.net/media/Default/Market%20Intelligence/cereals-oilseeds/Grain%20Market%20Daily/2023/03.%20March/07%2003%202023/graph%202%2007%2003%202023.PNG" alt="A table showing Argentina's WASDE predictions.'s WASDE predictions." class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p></p><p>Average analysts’ estimates are pegging Argentina’s soyabean production at 36.65Mt, with anticipations of 4.35Mt being trimmed in one hit. However, production is still higher than other agricultural consultancies such as BAGE (33.5Mt) and Rosario Grain Exchange (34.5Mt).</p><p></p><p>With the WASDE being a large source of driving market sentiment, if this prediction is greater than expectations, could we see further support for soyabean prices? I’d argue if they slash further than it wouldn’t be much of a surprise, unless it goes under 30Mt.</p><p></p><h3>But where now for prices?</h3><p>Has the market really priced in the extent of the damage to this soyabean crop? At first the market was very concerned on the marginal trims. However, since then we have seen very large cuts to the initial estimate.</p><p></p><p>This is going to have implications to the global market, especially for soyameal markets. With Argentina’s processing capacity of soyabeans, if that reduces, this will have knock-on implications for soyameal and Argentina’s ability to meet export expectations.</p><p></p><p>Despite all this bullish news, there is still a large Brazilian soyabean crop due with Conab (Brazilian government) currently estimating the crop at 152.9Mt, increasing by 21.8% year-on-year. This is being harvested right now, albeit slightly delayed, but it is progressing. This slight delay, combined with disruptions in inland transportation in Brazil, has limited exports of soyabeans and soyameal recently. This has the potential to bring back some demand to <a href="https://ahdb.org.uk/news/china-where-next-for-maize-and-soyabean-demand-grain-market-daily" target="_blank">US origin</a> soyabeans, which could then reduce their ending stocks further, which currently are the tightest since 2015/16.</p><p></p><p>In the short term, as adverse weather prevails in Argentina there is going to be an underlying market support for soyabeans, which will inherently feed into domestic rapeseed prices.</p><p></p><p>Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - <a href="https://ahdb.org.uk/news/argentina-is-keeping-rapeseed-prices-supported-grain-market-daily" target="_blank">Argentina is keeping rapeseed prices supported</a></p><p></p><p>For information on price direction make sure to <a href="https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch" target="_blank">subscribe to Grain Market Daily and Market Report</a> from our team.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="AHDB Cereals and Oilseeds, post: 8626716, member: 142623"] Argentina has been hit by the worst drought in 60 years, which has been ongoing since last year. To start, it severely impacted their wheat crop for this marketing year (2022/23). Currently, it is having significant implications on their spring cropping which is being hit hard by the ongoing drought. We’ve been discussing for a while that the impacting risk of the La Niña weather event has been priced into the soyabean market. That combined with other factors, such as demand for biofuels, has kept soyabean prices elevated. Which to some extent has provided the fundamental supporting floor to domestic rapeseed prices. According to Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) 67% of the soyabean crop (up until 02 Mar) is rated “poor / very poor”, up from 60% estimated the week before and up from 23% estimated at the same point last year. The crop is currently forecast at 33.5Mt by BAGE, further revisions are expected to this crop. Oilworld predict that the crop could be somewhere between 25Mt to 28Mt, significantly down from the potential of 48Mt which was expected at the start of the growing cycle (oilworld.biz). Over the next seven days, temperatures are going to be abnormally high in Argentina’s agricultural region, which will further add stress, we are awaiting further revisions for this soyabean crop. [IMG alt="A map showing Argentina's weather's weather"]https://projectblue.blob.core.windows.net/media/Default/Market%20Intelligence/cereals-oilseeds/Grain%20Market%20Daily/2023/03.%20March/07%2003%202023/graph%201%2007%2003%202023.PNG[/IMG] [HEADING=2]Predicting the USDA[/HEADING] Tomorrow the latest USDA March World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimate (WASDE) is going to be released, with revisions expected to Argentina’s maize and soyabean crops. [IMG alt="A table showing Argentina's WASDE predictions.'s WASDE predictions."]https://projectblue.blob.core.windows.net/media/Default/Market%20Intelligence/cereals-oilseeds/Grain%20Market%20Daily/2023/03.%20March/07%2003%202023/graph%202%2007%2003%202023.PNG[/IMG] Average analysts’ estimates are pegging Argentina’s soyabean production at 36.65Mt, with anticipations of 4.35Mt being trimmed in one hit. However, production is still higher than other agricultural consultancies such as BAGE (33.5Mt) and Rosario Grain Exchange (34.5Mt). With the WASDE being a large source of driving market sentiment, if this prediction is greater than expectations, could we see further support for soyabean prices? I’d argue if they slash further than it wouldn’t be much of a surprise, unless it goes under 30Mt. [HEADING=2]But where now for prices?[/HEADING] Has the market really priced in the extent of the damage to this soyabean crop? At first the market was very concerned on the marginal trims. However, since then we have seen very large cuts to the initial estimate. This is going to have implications to the global market, especially for soyameal markets. With Argentina’s processing capacity of soyabeans, if that reduces, this will have knock-on implications for soyameal and Argentina’s ability to meet export expectations. Despite all this bullish news, there is still a large Brazilian soyabean crop due with Conab (Brazilian government) currently estimating the crop at 152.9Mt, increasing by 21.8% year-on-year. This is being harvested right now, albeit slightly delayed, but it is progressing. This slight delay, combined with disruptions in inland transportation in Brazil, has limited exports of soyabeans and soyameal recently. This has the potential to bring back some demand to [URL='https://ahdb.org.uk/news/china-where-next-for-maize-and-soyabean-demand-grain-market-daily']US origin[/URL] soyabeans, which could then reduce their ending stocks further, which currently are the tightest since 2015/16. In the short term, as adverse weather prevails in Argentina there is going to be an underlying market support for soyabeans, which will inherently feed into domestic rapeseed prices. Today's Grain Market Daily is now published - [URL='https://ahdb.org.uk/news/argentina-is-keeping-rapeseed-prices-supported-grain-market-daily']Argentina is keeping rapeseed prices supported[/URL] For information on price direction make sure to [URL='https://ahdb.org.uk/keeping-in-touch']subscribe to Grain Market Daily and Market Report[/URL] from our team. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Forums
Arable Farming
Arable Market Commentary
Argentina is keeping rapeseed prices supported
This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
Accept
Learn more…
Top