UK agricultural production

[Jackov Altraids]

Since George Eustace said farmers need to cut costs and compete with imports or do something else, there is clearly no need for any farmer to feel any obligation to 'feed the nation'.
It does however scare me as a UK citizen, that we are running towards a cliff edge of shortages.
I have kept this poll as vague as possible so to be of little commercial use. There isn't any need to give quantities or say whether it is milk, strawberries, beef, carrots, eggs or anything else.
I just think it would be a good idea if as many people as possible could answer this thread and either quell my concerns or send a message to somebody how serious things are.

Thank you for your participation.

 

[Bald Rick]

TBH, whilst we have some idea of where we will be in 3 months, 6 months and in a year‘s time, the political landscape both regional (Wales), National and world is so febrile at the moment, those ideas aren’t worth a hill of beans

I suspect, though, that we will be running to stand still

 

[DrWazzock]

Simply can’t afford as much fertiliser and also we’ve been forced to cut a few corners on crop establishment so output will be down a bit.
Profit shouldn’t be down though.
Farming for profit, not for output or to look busy.

 

[Tarw Coch]

I’ve gone with no change but to add a bit of context to that, I’m a dairy farmer who due to prices has used 60% of my usual fertiliser use this year and had to contend with one of the driest summers in living memory and lack of grass growth, luckily I was reasonably well prepared for that with a good carryover of silage stocks to see me through the summer.
Hopefully I’ve got enough of forage to see me through the winter but that leaves me without a buffer next summer and Fert prices aren’t getting any cheaper so I expect next years use to be similarly low to this year. It will therefore take quite a good summer to retain milk sales at this years reduced levels, it will take a miracle to see them increase, a decrease is quite possible.

 

[Yale]

Very little fert on grazing this year, only replaced the fert for forage at double the cost but only for the next season.

If stock prices don't follow inflation of other inputs then the policy will be to drop down to subsistence and wind down production to half.

Our three kids are on track to get a university education and career outside farm, the farm is here if they wish for a lifestyle choice later.

I think anyone encouraging their kids to put all their eggs into the ag basket are being short sighted.

 

[Still Farming]

All guided by the way the Grant's go more like it?.
Where there's a Scheme there is a schemer apparently???

 

[solo]

The economic fertiliser curve of price versus yield is getting less as fertiliser prices rise,so farming light soils there is less room for marginal applications. This will result in an anticipated 10% decrease in yield. Tillage has been reduced to save fuel too. It’s all about preserving the margin.

 

[roscoe erf]

all ready moved up my culling plan 12 gone this week , going to cull tight this coming spring less to the bull as well

 

[7610 super q]

Keep on growing crops until it's time to stop growing crops.

 

[Jackov Altraids]

I don't speak to very many people, but those I have spoken to all seem to be reducing output except those who were already committed to expansion.
The worry I have is that we could easily pass a point of losing critical mass before anyone has realised.
We already have regionally with areas to far from processors for dairy or beet and areas far from a livestock market.
I think most sectors have had declining output for a while with larger operators making up most of the declines as smaller ones leave. It would seem current reductions are deeper and more widespread with the ability to increase also considerably reduced.
You can suddenly produce anything out of thin air.

 

[bluebell]

people who farm, or produce crops in the horticultural sector, are not going to work for nothing? why should they, thats the big big big problem at the moment, hobby farming, good lifers, escape to the countryside is one thing? but choosing, making a job, earning a resonable living in agriculture, horticulture, is another? The very poor returns (if any) for the work effort, worry, capital investment, is driving out, slimming down, closing down, call it whatever, the critical mass of agricultural production in the UK?

 

[kfpben]

Meanwhile the UK breeding ewe flock increased this year

 

[delilah]

The worry I have is that we could easily pass a point of losing critical mass before anyone has realised.

Which is a subtle, but important, deviation from your original question. I don't worry about whether the industry as a whole produces 10% more or 10% less of any given commodity. What I do worry about, is how many individual businesses are responsible for that output. Because that is critical mass.

 

[wanton dwarf]

I've said pretty much the same.

However I do realise we have a HUGE number of organisations - which includes our own government - attempting to destroy us.

I feel we are going to have to run to stand still.

Why we bother I don't know.

 

[Briar]

Became cynical of our conventional farming model several years ago. Instigated change with renewables before Fit’s and RHI changed for the worse. Further changes now include equestrian and conversion of most land to organic. These more recent changes were definitely met initially with raised eyebrows from local farming community but that was before thr hike in fert and fuel prices.
Am not necessarily increasing or decreasing cropping/livestock, just changing by trying to make better use of assets at hand and add value to what we produce.
“Farming” can still be fun if you don’t follow the herd.

 

[unlacedgecko]

I’m tupping 700 this year. Next year it will be 2000+. Pushing up cattle numbers as well.

 

[Yale]

Meanwhile the UK breeding ewe flock increased this year

Really?

I find that hard to believe in this area, dairy farms seem to be the ones getting bigger.

Certainly lamb prices are not rewarding at the moment.

 

[kiwi pom]

Which is a subtle, but important, deviation from your original question. I don't worry about whether the industry as a whole produces 10% more or 10% less of any given commodity. What I do worry about, is how many individual businesses are responsible for that output. Because that is critical mass.

Time to reduce the amount of land farmers can own/rent/farm?
Quotas maybe?

 

[delilah]

Time to reduce the amount of land farmers can own/rent/farm?
Quotas maybe?

Nope. All meaningful change is demand driven.

 

[devonbeef]

The age of the ones holding the title of farms is high, and when they go , around here the farms as farms go,split up etc,I see many around my way over or near retirement , most do not have people carrying on, so what is going to happening to those.I guess the bigger get bigger, Labour paid peanuts in comparison to the rest of society is going to be their downfall.