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<blockquote data-quote="Brisel" data-source="post: 6077342" data-attributes="member: 166"><p>Clive wasn't talking about success, he was talking about luck. The third ingredient of making your own luck is hard work.</p><p></p><p>However, in the context of this thread and hitting the top of the market, you cannot control the price no matter how hard you work nor how prepared you are, beyond knowing your costs, understanding how the market works and being ready to commit a planned tonnage into a very good price opportunity. </p><p></p><p>"Lucky sales" will only be defined at the end of the marketing campaign. When you consider that the stocks of wheat held by the major exporters are abnormally low and at these levels would otherwise trigger more price volatility, it is only the fact that the Chinese are holding the other half of the world's wheat stocks that means globally, we have an abnormally high total stock level that means the price is low and falling. It is only the weak £ that is keeping us off the floor of the world market. If anyone knows what the Chinese will do with these [intervention]stocks, it would drive the price one way or another. I doubt they will be dumping them on the export market anytime soon but it will keep their imports down for a while.</p><p></p><p>Don't forget that the Chinese hold over half the world's maize stocks too, have held them for years and are deteriorating in store to the point that bioethanol is the only viable end use for them. There's a new player in town. To think that years ago the production and stocks held by the big 5 exporters would determine the price; USA, Canada, EU, Australia & Argentina. Now you can add Russia & Ukraine to that list, and the Chinese hold all the aces in the pack by keeping such big stocks internally.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Brisel, post: 6077342, member: 166"] Clive wasn't talking about success, he was talking about luck. The third ingredient of making your own luck is hard work. However, in the context of this thread and hitting the top of the market, you cannot control the price no matter how hard you work nor how prepared you are, beyond knowing your costs, understanding how the market works and being ready to commit a planned tonnage into a very good price opportunity. "Lucky sales" will only be defined at the end of the marketing campaign. When you consider that the stocks of wheat held by the major exporters are abnormally low and at these levels would otherwise trigger more price volatility, it is only the fact that the Chinese are holding the other half of the world's wheat stocks that means globally, we have an abnormally high total stock level that means the price is low and falling. It is only the weak £ that is keeping us off the floor of the world market. If anyone knows what the Chinese will do with these [intervention]stocks, it would drive the price one way or another. I doubt they will be dumping them on the export market anytime soon but it will keep their imports down for a while. Don't forget that the Chinese hold over half the world's maize stocks too, have held them for years and are deteriorating in store to the point that bioethanol is the only viable end use for them. There's a new player in town. To think that years ago the production and stocks held by the big 5 exporters would determine the price; USA, Canada, EU, Australia & Argentina. Now you can add Russia & Ukraine to that list, and the Chinese hold all the aces in the pack by keeping such big stocks internally. [/QUOTE]
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