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Arable Farming
Cropping
Fertiliser Price Tracker
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<blockquote data-quote="Planet Bee" data-source="post: 7824125" data-attributes="member: 164085"><p>To some extent, the situation has been exacerbated by the particularly aggressive pricing of the UK's domestic AN producer during May-September.</p><p></p><p>As you well know, Granular Urea was trading globally at a $30-$50/mt premium to the corresponding AN prices during the same period. Even if you calculated with a small inefficiency factor favouring Nitrates. Slightly less so if you compared to inhibited Urea. Simultaneously, they were also discounted too, in pure £/kg of N terms, the EU nitrate producers.</p><p></p><p>The result being and compared to the 5-year average, Granular Urea shipments have been very much behind the normal pace of imports during the same period. Only when the domestic AN producer exited the market in September, citing high gas costs, was there an opportunity for traders to make Urea work, price wise. </p><p></p><p>Sadly, warehouses at ports are not elastic sided. There's only so much logistic capacity, as [USER=155076]@Southwestmassive[/USER] highlights, to process tonnes from their arrival to being where they're required - on farm.</p><p></p><p>It's widely rumoured that upwards of 300kt AN equivalent Nitrogen will be missing from the supply side for the 2021-22 cropping year. Maybe some of this will be offset by demand destruction caused by high prices? It's difficult to know exactly as the RB209 "Bible" only guides on prices up to £483 for AN.</p><p></p><p>Essentially, the UK fertiliser distribution system is "stressed". Those saying, "wait, it'll drop in price", I admire your optimism. Good luck!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Planet Bee, post: 7824125, member: 164085"] To some extent, the situation has been exacerbated by the particularly aggressive pricing of the UK's domestic AN producer during May-September. As you well know, Granular Urea was trading globally at a $30-$50/mt premium to the corresponding AN prices during the same period. Even if you calculated with a small inefficiency factor favouring Nitrates. Slightly less so if you compared to inhibited Urea. Simultaneously, they were also discounted too, in pure £/kg of N terms, the EU nitrate producers. The result being and compared to the 5-year average, Granular Urea shipments have been very much behind the normal pace of imports during the same period. Only when the domestic AN producer exited the market in September, citing high gas costs, was there an opportunity for traders to make Urea work, price wise. Sadly, warehouses at ports are not elastic sided. There's only so much logistic capacity, as [USER=155076]@Southwestmassive[/USER] highlights, to process tonnes from their arrival to being where they're required - on farm. It's widely rumoured that upwards of 300kt AN equivalent Nitrogen will be missing from the supply side for the 2021-22 cropping year. Maybe some of this will be offset by demand destruction caused by high prices? It's difficult to know exactly as the RB209 "Bible" only guides on prices up to £483 for AN. Essentially, the UK fertiliser distribution system is "stressed". Those saying, "wait, it'll drop in price", I admire your optimism. Good luck! [/QUOTE]
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