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<blockquote data-quote="som farmer" data-source="post: 8109010" data-attributes="member: 86168"><p>surprises me futures are not higher. Whatever the outcome of the war, Ukrainian grain is not going to feature on the mkt, for 2 years, its a complete mess, and infrastructure has been seriously damaged, that will take time to sort out. Russian grain, will be displaced to different mkts, if embargoes are still in place. You simply cannot remove the amount of grain, that Ukraine produced, from the market place, without causing shortages, 20%+ world wheat supply, comes from there, its a huge amount.</p><p> If less fert has been used, there will be not be a huge reduction, of yield, yet, a lot of crops are already, and approaching harvest, its the following of those crops, that will have the effect.</p><p>And of course, politicians won't want 'scary' forward prices.</p><p></p><p>Farming has come to a 'crunch' time, rising demand, rising input costs, are not reflected in current, or future mkts. Farmers cannot produce product, if the price they receive, does not factor those increases in, that's just obvious, to farmers, to politicians, it doesn't appear to be.</p><p>And, there are no alternatives to ag product, whether fruit, corn or animal, they have to be produced, whatever the costs, otherwise, people starve.</p><p></p><p>Anybody listening to news channels, are repeatedly hearing about food inflation, warnings are there. Farmers will get the blame, we always do, but, this shortage, is entirely politically caused, successive guvs, from many countries, have actively followed/promoted cheap food policies, in fairness, policy worked. Until, a pandemic, massive rise in energy costs, and war, have screwed the production, and global trade chains.</p><p></p><p>Until now, that is, Its where politicians want to go, from here, production costs, are such, that without raising prices, production will fall. You have a very large, vocal, and powerful lobby of climate change followers, their policy, is to remove many 'things' that allow cheap food production, input costs are rising, war etc, are all negatives to increased production. So politicians have to decide what they want, knowing whatever they do, will be unpopular with large sections of society. No doubt it will be a buggers muddle, but they have no option, but to increase production, and it is only us, that can actually do that, a very strong hand,</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="som farmer, post: 8109010, member: 86168"] surprises me futures are not higher. Whatever the outcome of the war, Ukrainian grain is not going to feature on the mkt, for 2 years, its a complete mess, and infrastructure has been seriously damaged, that will take time to sort out. Russian grain, will be displaced to different mkts, if embargoes are still in place. You simply cannot remove the amount of grain, that Ukraine produced, from the market place, without causing shortages, 20%+ world wheat supply, comes from there, its a huge amount. If less fert has been used, there will be not be a huge reduction, of yield, yet, a lot of crops are already, and approaching harvest, its the following of those crops, that will have the effect. And of course, politicians won't want 'scary' forward prices. Farming has come to a 'crunch' time, rising demand, rising input costs, are not reflected in current, or future mkts. Farmers cannot produce product, if the price they receive, does not factor those increases in, that's just obvious, to farmers, to politicians, it doesn't appear to be. And, there are no alternatives to ag product, whether fruit, corn or animal, they have to be produced, whatever the costs, otherwise, people starve. Anybody listening to news channels, are repeatedly hearing about food inflation, warnings are there. Farmers will get the blame, we always do, but, this shortage, is entirely politically caused, successive guvs, from many countries, have actively followed/promoted cheap food policies, in fairness, policy worked. Until, a pandemic, massive rise in energy costs, and war, have screwed the production, and global trade chains. Until now, that is, Its where politicians want to go, from here, production costs, are such, that without raising prices, production will fall. You have a very large, vocal, and powerful lobby of climate change followers, their policy, is to remove many 'things' that allow cheap food production, input costs are rising, war etc, are all negatives to increased production. So politicians have to decide what they want, knowing whatever they do, will be unpopular with large sections of society. No doubt it will be a buggers muddle, but they have no option, but to increase production, and it is only us, that can actually do that, a very strong hand, [/QUOTE]
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