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Arable Farming
Arable Market Commentary
Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 6 September 2017
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<blockquote data-quote="ADM Agriculture" data-source="post: 4232356" data-attributes="member: 6746"><p> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">US markets – soy higher on talk of increased Chinese demand & short covering. Corn higher on short covering & talk of drier August conditions. Wheat higher on short covering and inflation talk - another hurricane heading for US, SE seen adding some support generally.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">NASS reported the US corn crop at 61% good/excellent condition, down 1 point on the week, with doughing at 92% vs 95% last year and 94% as 5-yr average, denting at 60% vs 74% last year and 68% as 5-yr average, with mature at 12% vs 17% last year and 18% as 5-yr average.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">NASS reported the US soybean crop at 61% good/excellent condition, unchanged on the week, with 97% setting pods vs 97% last year and 96% as 5-yr average, and 11% dropping leaves vs 11% last year and 12% as 5-yr average.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">NASS reported the US spring wheat harvest 89% complete vs 90% last year and 78% as 5-yr average.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">US Midwest weather forecast has hit and miss light showers over next 2-3 days. Dry weather looks to dominate the region for the next week to 10 days. Temperatures will be below average with no cold air threat.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">US Delta will see light rains this week, drying out into early next week.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The 11-16 day US forecast sees below average rainfall for the Plains. Temperatures are seen running near average for the Midwest and Delta.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Kansas could face hefty yield losses next year from a virus that cost it nearly 6% of production in 2017, as low prices may deter farmers from spending money on herbicides according to media reports.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Ukrainian farmers have started winter grain sowings for the 2018 harvest, reported the ministry, with the area under winter wheat likely to total 6.1mln hectares.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">UkrAgroConsult have raised its 2017-18 Ukrainian grain export forecast to 42.06mln t, underpinned by a higher-than-expected harvest, now seen at 63.2mln from 61.7mln t a month ago.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Russian wheat export prices fell for the fifth consecutive week, under pressure from a large new crop, although the decline was limited by a strengthening currency against the US$.</li> </ul><p><strong>Last Trade Settlement:</strong></p><p>London Nov ’17 Settle £141.30/t – up £1.05/t from previous close</p><p>Paris Dec ’17 Settle €162.50 – up €2.00/t from previous close</p><p>CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.5850/bushel – up 3.25 cents/bushels from previous close</p><p>CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.4300/bushel – up 4.25 cents/bushel from previous close</p><p></p><p><strong>Currency Today:</strong></p><p>GBP EUR 1.0915</p><p>GBP USD 1.3040</p><p>EUR GBP 0.9155</p><p>EUR USD 1.1940</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ADM Agriculture, post: 4232356, member: 6746"] [LIST] [*]US markets – soy higher on talk of increased Chinese demand & short covering. Corn higher on short covering & talk of drier August conditions. Wheat higher on short covering and inflation talk - another hurricane heading for US, SE seen adding some support generally. [*]NASS reported the US corn crop at 61% good/excellent condition, down 1 point on the week, with doughing at 92% vs 95% last year and 94% as 5-yr average, denting at 60% vs 74% last year and 68% as 5-yr average, with mature at 12% vs 17% last year and 18% as 5-yr average. [*]NASS reported the US soybean crop at 61% good/excellent condition, unchanged on the week, with 97% setting pods vs 97% last year and 96% as 5-yr average, and 11% dropping leaves vs 11% last year and 12% as 5-yr average. [*]NASS reported the US spring wheat harvest 89% complete vs 90% last year and 78% as 5-yr average. [*]US Midwest weather forecast has hit and miss light showers over next 2-3 days. Dry weather looks to dominate the region for the next week to 10 days. Temperatures will be below average with no cold air threat. [*]US Delta will see light rains this week, drying out into early next week. [*]The 11-16 day US forecast sees below average rainfall for the Plains. Temperatures are seen running near average for the Midwest and Delta. [*]Kansas could face hefty yield losses next year from a virus that cost it nearly 6% of production in 2017, as low prices may deter farmers from spending money on herbicides according to media reports. [*]Ukrainian farmers have started winter grain sowings for the 2018 harvest, reported the ministry, with the area under winter wheat likely to total 6.1mln hectares. [*]UkrAgroConsult have raised its 2017-18 Ukrainian grain export forecast to 42.06mln t, underpinned by a higher-than-expected harvest, now seen at 63.2mln from 61.7mln t a month ago. [*]Russian wheat export prices fell for the fifth consecutive week, under pressure from a large new crop, although the decline was limited by a strengthening currency against the US$. [/LIST] [B]Last Trade Settlement:[/B] London Nov ’17 Settle £141.30/t – up £1.05/t from previous close Paris Dec ’17 Settle €162.50 – up €2.00/t from previous close CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.5850/bushel – up 3.25 cents/bushels from previous close CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.4300/bushel – up 4.25 cents/bushel from previous close [B]Currency Today:[/B] GBP EUR 1.0915 GBP USD 1.3040 EUR GBP 0.9155 EUR USD 1.1940 [/QUOTE]
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Gleadell Daily Grain Comment - 6 September 2017
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