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Arable Farming
Arable Market Commentary
Markets are sick and there is no cure in sight (yet)
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<blockquote data-quote="CRM AgriCommodities" data-source="post: 6791595" data-attributes="member: 29580"><p> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Grains continued lower in the wake of tumbling financial markets and a steep correction in oil prices as the COVID-19 continues to spread rapidly outside China.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Despite the weaker pound and ongoing poor planting conditions in the UK, the 'old crop' May-20 LIFFE feed wheat contract settled at its lowest level since mid-December 2019 whilst the new crop Nov-20 expiry continues to hover over the £160/T mark.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Euronext wheat was also under pressure today, falling to a fresh 3-month low and closing below its key 100-day moving average for the first time since the end of November 2019. The coronavirus spreads rapidly in Italy with 400 confirmed cases after a 25% surge in 24 hours. The strengthening euro was also weighing on European prices.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The International Grains Council raised its 2020/21 world wheat production forecast by 4MMT on last month to a record 769MMT vs 763MMT this year [more info <a href="https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=6cd5a2ab91&e=25be6ed339" target="_blank">click here</a>].</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The lack of bullish catalysts coupled with news of an 'unknown origin' coronavirus case in the US weighed heavily on both CBOT wheat (down 1.5% to a 2-1/2 month low, breaking through the c$530 level on the May-20 contract) and corn (down 1.8% and closing in the red for a 7th consecutive session to a fresh contract low on the May-20 expiry). In Europe, the Jun-20 Matif maize contract also settled at a fresh contract low, below the 170€ mark.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">After 3 long years of dry weather, Australian farmers could finally benefit from a forecasted prolonged period of cool and wet weather with a 70% chance to see above normal precipitation over the next 3 months (source: BOM). </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased its country's 2019/20 corn production forecast by 1MMT to 50MMT ie in line with the USDA's estimate and compared with 51MMT last year. According to today's Bolsa crop condition report, 59% of the Argentine corn crop was in 'Good/Excellent' condition as of Feb 26th vs 61% last week and 56% last year. The weather forecast is still drier than desired for maturing crops.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Ethiopia is in the market for 200KT of milling wheat.</li> </ul><p></p><p><em>To find out how this impacts your business and for insights, opinions, strategies and more <a href="mailto:info@crm-group.co.uk?subject=I%20would%20like%20to%20know%20more%20&body=Name%3A%0ABusiness%3A%0ATelephone%3A%0A%0AMessage%3A">get in touch</a>. Or call 01223 608910.</em></p><p><em></em></p><p><em><img src="https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=611ca55533&e=25be6ed339" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></em></p><p></p><table style='width: 100%'><tr><td><p style="text-align: left"><table style='width: 100%'><tr><td><strong>EU rapeseed tumbles in the wake of steep losses in crude oil prices</strong><br /> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Euronext rapeseed tumbled more than 5€/T on the May-20 contract, settling at a 3-week low in the wake of Brent oil which fell for a 5th consecutive session to reach its lowest level since the end of December 2018. The key $51/bbl technical support is holding for now.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">In a rather volatile session, May-20 CBOT soybeans fell to a fresh 9-month low before recovering and turning positive in the afternoon with its 10-day moving average still acting as a strong technical resistance.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The IGC revised its 2019/20 world soybean production forecast up 3MMT month on month to 345MMT over improving conditions in South America. If realised, it would still be a 5% decline year on year due to a poor harvest in the US, down by ~24MMT on last year. Global soybean stocks are pegged at 39MMT ie down nearly 30% according to the same source.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">CBOT soymeal jumped higher for a second consecutive session with the Argentine government expected to increase tariff on soybean, soymeal and soybean oil exports in the coming days.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its 2019/20 Argentina soybean crop forecast by 1.4MMT to 54.5MMT (vs 53MMT for the USDA and 55.3MMT LY) amid beneficial rain in February. As of Feb 26th, 69% of the Argentine soybean crop was rated 'Good/Excellent' against 71% last week and 47% last year.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Malaysia palm oil futures snapped a 3-day losing streak of 6.2% over bargain buying. </li> </ul> <em>To find out how this impacts your business and for insights, opinions, strategies and more <a href="mailto:info@crm-group.co.uk?subject=I%20would%20like%20to%20know%20more%20&body=Name%3A%0ABusiness%3A%0ATelephone%3A%0A%0AMessage%3A">get in touch</a>. Or call 01223 608910.<br /> <br /> <img src="https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=33cab7701d&e=25be6ed339" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></em><br /> <br /> <strong>Charts relevant to your grain prices:<br /> Spread between Nov LIFFE Feed Wheat and Dec EURONEXT Wheat (in £/T) </strong> <br /> <img src="https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=7ce8bd1de5&e=25be6ed339" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /><br /> <br /> <p style="text-align: left"><table style='width: 100%'><tr><td><strong>Futures & Options prices:</strong></td></tr></table></p> <img src="https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=c1c8dbddba&e=25be6ed339" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /><br /> <br /> <strong><u>Book onto our next</u> grain marketing course</strong><br /> 7th Apr, Edinburgh - (<a href="https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=4f37a7f320&e=25be6ed339" target="_blank">click here</a>)<br /> 21st Apr, Lincoln - (<a href="https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=4a10586c7b&e=25be6ed339" target="_blank">click here</a>)<br /> 22nd Apr, Cambridge - (<a href="https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=91e83c5654&e=25be6ed339" target="_blank">click here</a>)<br /> Or register interest for your local 2020 course: <a href="mailto:jbolesworth@crm-group.co.uk?subject=Christmas19%20course%20discount%20&body=I%20would%20like%20to%20register%20for%20a%202020%20grain%20marketing%20course%20using%20the%20Christmas%20discount.%0AName%3A%0APreferred%20location%3A%0ATelephone%3A%0AVolume%20sold%2F%20bought%3A">click here</a><br /> <br /> <strong>Hiring: <a href="https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=0d84f6fc2d&e=25be6ed339" target="_blank">We have a number of exciting opportunities</a></strong> </td></tr></table></p> </td></tr></table></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="CRM AgriCommodities, post: 6791595, member: 29580"] [LIST] [*]Grains continued lower in the wake of tumbling financial markets and a steep correction in oil prices as the COVID-19 continues to spread rapidly outside China. [*]Despite the weaker pound and ongoing poor planting conditions in the UK, the 'old crop' May-20 LIFFE feed wheat contract settled at its lowest level since mid-December 2019 whilst the new crop Nov-20 expiry continues to hover over the £160/T mark. [*]Euronext wheat was also under pressure today, falling to a fresh 3-month low and closing below its key 100-day moving average for the first time since the end of November 2019. The coronavirus spreads rapidly in Italy with 400 confirmed cases after a 25% surge in 24 hours. The strengthening euro was also weighing on European prices. [*]The International Grains Council raised its 2020/21 world wheat production forecast by 4MMT on last month to a record 769MMT vs 763MMT this year [more info [URL='https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=6cd5a2ab91&e=25be6ed339']click here[/URL]]. [*]The lack of bullish catalysts coupled with news of an 'unknown origin' coronavirus case in the US weighed heavily on both CBOT wheat (down 1.5% to a 2-1/2 month low, breaking through the c$530 level on the May-20 contract) and corn (down 1.8% and closing in the red for a 7th consecutive session to a fresh contract low on the May-20 expiry). In Europe, the Jun-20 Matif maize contract also settled at a fresh contract low, below the 170€ mark. [*]After 3 long years of dry weather, Australian farmers could finally benefit from a forecasted prolonged period of cool and wet weather with a 70% chance to see above normal precipitation over the next 3 months (source: BOM). [*]In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased its country's 2019/20 corn production forecast by 1MMT to 50MMT ie in line with the USDA's estimate and compared with 51MMT last year. According to today's Bolsa crop condition report, 59% of the Argentine corn crop was in 'Good/Excellent' condition as of Feb 26th vs 61% last week and 56% last year. The weather forecast is still drier than desired for maturing crops. [*]Ethiopia is in the market for 200KT of milling wheat. [/LIST] [I]To find out how this impacts your business and for insights, opinions, strategies and more [EMAIL='info@crm-group.co.uk?subject=I%20would%20like%20to%20know%20more%20&body=Name%3A%0ABusiness%3A%0ATelephone%3A%0A%0AMessage%3A']get in touch[/EMAIL]. Or call 01223 608910. [IMG]https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=611ca55533&e=25be6ed339[/IMG][/I] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][LEFT][TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]EU rapeseed tumbles in the wake of steep losses in crude oil prices[/B] [LIST] [*]Euronext rapeseed tumbled more than 5€/T on the May-20 contract, settling at a 3-week low in the wake of Brent oil which fell for a 5th consecutive session to reach its lowest level since the end of December 2018. The key $51/bbl technical support is holding for now. [*]In a rather volatile session, May-20 CBOT soybeans fell to a fresh 9-month low before recovering and turning positive in the afternoon with its 10-day moving average still acting as a strong technical resistance. [*]The IGC revised its 2019/20 world soybean production forecast up 3MMT month on month to 345MMT over improving conditions in South America. If realised, it would still be a 5% decline year on year due to a poor harvest in the US, down by ~24MMT on last year. Global soybean stocks are pegged at 39MMT ie down nearly 30% according to the same source. [*]CBOT soymeal jumped higher for a second consecutive session with the Argentine government expected to increase tariff on soybean, soymeal and soybean oil exports in the coming days. [*]The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its 2019/20 Argentina soybean crop forecast by 1.4MMT to 54.5MMT (vs 53MMT for the USDA and 55.3MMT LY) amid beneficial rain in February. As of Feb 26th, 69% of the Argentine soybean crop was rated 'Good/Excellent' against 71% last week and 47% last year. [*]Malaysia palm oil futures snapped a 3-day losing streak of 6.2% over bargain buying. [/LIST] [I]To find out how this impacts your business and for insights, opinions, strategies and more [EMAIL='info@crm-group.co.uk?subject=I%20would%20like%20to%20know%20more%20&body=Name%3A%0ABusiness%3A%0ATelephone%3A%0A%0AMessage%3A']get in touch[/EMAIL]. Or call 01223 608910. [IMG]https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=33cab7701d&e=25be6ed339[/IMG][/I] [B]Charts relevant to your grain prices: Spread between Nov LIFFE Feed Wheat and Dec EURONEXT Wheat (in £/T) [/B] [IMG]https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=7ce8bd1de5&e=25be6ed339[/IMG] [LEFT][TABLE] [TR] [TD][B]Futures & Options prices:[/B][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE][/LEFT] [IMG]https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=c1c8dbddba&e=25be6ed339[/IMG] [B][U]Book onto our next[/U] grain marketing course[/B] 7th Apr, Edinburgh - ([URL='https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=4f37a7f320&e=25be6ed339']click here[/URL]) 21st Apr, Lincoln - ([URL='https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=4a10586c7b&e=25be6ed339']click here[/URL]) 22nd Apr, Cambridge - ([URL='https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=91e83c5654&e=25be6ed339']click here[/URL]) Or register interest for your local 2020 course: [EMAIL='jbolesworth@crm-group.co.uk?subject=Christmas19%20course%20discount%20&body=I%20would%20like%20to%20register%20for%20a%202020%20grain%20marketing%20course%20using%20the%20Christmas%20discount.%0AName%3A%0APreferred%20location%3A%0ATelephone%3A%0AVolume%20sold%2F%20bought%3A']click here[/EMAIL] [B]Hiring: [URL='https://crmagri.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=3ff340f3a7f8fae8fcb7979ba&id=0d84f6fc2d&e=25be6ed339']We have a number of exciting opportunities[/URL][/B] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE][/LEFT][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/QUOTE]
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