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Farm Business
Politics, Covid19 and Brexit
The Russian Sanctions
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<blockquote data-quote="Danllan" data-source="post: 8002475" data-attributes="member: 8735"><p>Good idea for a thread, pity about the daft comments.</p><p></p><p>It's very obvious that 'the West' is coordinating its response; the big hit on day one coming from Germany and its halting of the pipeline (probably a bit of 'conscience money' in there too, after the fiasco of the 5000 helmets).</p><p></p><p>More will follow; I don't know, but I guess that every few days or so - maybe less - something else significant will be announced. Plus, every day, more materiel is arriving in Ukraine, free of charge, instructors included where necessary. A Russian helicopter is worth about £20m, a typical fighter about £40m, a tank about £2m - we have sent and can keep on sending anti-tank missiles, NLAWs, which cost a bit over £20k a time. The US is and can do the same with Javelin at about £60k a throw, and with Stinger at a bit more.</p><p></p><p>Of course not all missiles will hit, but there are already three times as many ATMs in Ukraine as the Russians can deploy tanks, and four times as many SAMs as they can deploy aircraft - and the numbers of them, and the numbers of people trained on them are increasing daily. But even if only 10% hit, that's about a third of his forces gone just with what's there now. All this and much more will just keep pouring in.</p><p></p><p>It won't / can't stop a Russian invasion in its first rush; but it can slow it and eventually stop it in a way that wouldn't have been possible even just a few months ago. And it will certainly mean that any hopes Vlad has of actually holding territory away from the Russian border, could only now be realised at a truly horrific cost in monetary and human terms to Russia. He can't afford either and hope to survive.</p><p></p><p>(Just as a bit of added interest, taking Ukraine with the ~200k he has around it is feasible, but conventional wisdom tells us that he'd need at least three times as many for even a hope of a successful occupation, and double that to be sure of it - Russia currently has an army of 600k, about a third of which are conscripts)</p><p></p><p>For those mocking the sanctions approach, give us the figures on what Russia has had frozen today, then tell us it's irrelevant.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Danllan, post: 8002475, member: 8735"] Good idea for a thread, pity about the daft comments. It's very obvious that 'the West' is coordinating its response; the big hit on day one coming from Germany and its halting of the pipeline (probably a bit of 'conscience money' in there too, after the fiasco of the 5000 helmets). More will follow; I don't know, but I guess that every few days or so - maybe less - something else significant will be announced. Plus, every day, more materiel is arriving in Ukraine, free of charge, instructors included where necessary. A Russian helicopter is worth about £20m, a typical fighter about £40m, a tank about £2m - we have sent and can keep on sending anti-tank missiles, NLAWs, which cost a bit over £20k a time. The US is and can do the same with Javelin at about £60k a throw, and with Stinger at a bit more. Of course not all missiles will hit, but there are already three times as many ATMs in Ukraine as the Russians can deploy tanks, and four times as many SAMs as they can deploy aircraft - and the numbers of them, and the numbers of people trained on them are increasing daily. But even if only 10% hit, that's about a third of his forces gone just with what's there now. All this and much more will just keep pouring in. It won't / can't stop a Russian invasion in its first rush; but it can slow it and eventually stop it in a way that wouldn't have been possible even just a few months ago. And it will certainly mean that any hopes Vlad has of actually holding territory away from the Russian border, could only now be realised at a truly horrific cost in monetary and human terms to Russia. He can't afford either and hope to survive. (Just as a bit of added interest, taking Ukraine with the ~200k he has around it is feasible, but conventional wisdom tells us that he'd need at least three times as many for even a hope of a successful occupation, and double that to be sure of it - Russia currently has an army of 600k, about a third of which are conscripts) For those mocking the sanctions approach, give us the figures on what Russia has had frozen today, then tell us it's irrelevant. [/QUOTE]
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